Reading MDU? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MDU free→Reading MDU? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MDU free→NYSEUtilitiesUtilities - Regulated GasSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been steady, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 19% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. If MDU cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $21.03. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $21 MDU trades at 23× p/e, in line with its 19× p/e peer median. Our $18 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 20% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about -5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Utilities names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1203).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.14x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Utilities names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1075).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.09 → $0.09 (-2.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$78.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$215.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $970.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend payout shows MDU cares about giving value back to shareholders.
Confirms:MDU maintains a dividend payout of at least $0.14 per share in Q2.
Disproves:MDU reduces the dividend payout below $0.14 per share in Q2.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MDU yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, MDU Resources Group, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a news release (the “News Release”) announcing its financial results for the first quarter of 2026. A copy of the News Release is furnished as Exhibit 99 to this Current Report on Form 8-K, which, in its entirety, is incorporated herein by reference. The Company is webcasting a conference call on May 7, 2026, to discuss its first quarter 2026 financial results, during which the Comp…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Multi-Utilities.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MDU MDU Resources Group, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 37 of 100 | full | moderate |
NEE NextEra Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | full | low |
SRE Sempra | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 47 of 100 | fair | low |
D Dominion Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 30 of 100 | fair | low |
XEL Xcel Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 59 of 100 | fair | low |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Utilities names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLU
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to maintain the dividend payout as a key capital allocation strategy.
Focus on increasing operating income through efficiency and growth initiatives.
Enhance cash flow from operations to support growth and capital allocation.
Why it matters: More customer growth shows strong demand for utility services and helps earnings.
Confirms:Reported customer growth rate of more than 2% year-over-year.
Disproves:Customer growth rate drops below 1% each year.
Why it matters: Earnings below this level show problems in meeting goals and growth plans.
Confirms:Q2 earnings per share reported at or above $0.93.
Disproves:Q2 earnings per share reported below $0.93.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial strength. It can help build trust with investors.
Confirms:The company says the dividend payout will stay the same for Q2.
Disproves:MDU announces a cut to the dividend payout for Q2.
Why it matters: If the utilities sector grows again, it could help MDU. This shows a better market.
Confirms one read:Utilities sector revenue grew more than 6% compared to last year.
Confirms the other:Utilities sector revenue grew less than 3% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Successful approvals would enhance revenue and support earnings growth for MDU.
Confirms:Approval of at least one pending general rate case with a revenue increase.
Disproves:Denial of key rate case requests or significant delays in approvals.
Why it matters: Better cash flow from operations indicates stronger financial health. It supports growth and investment plans.
Confirms:Cash from operations reported above $100 million in Q2.
Disproves:Cash from operations reported below $70 million in Q2.
Why it matters: A decision to proceed would signal strong demand and growth potential for MDU.
Confirms:Look for the final decision on the Bakken East Pipeline Project.
Disproves:Delays in the final decision or a big drop in customer interest.
Why it matters: Strong operating income growth would support MDU's goal to increase profits. It shows the company is managing costs well.
Confirms:Q2 operating income grew more than 5% compared to last year.
Disproves:Operating income fell below 0% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Changes in revenue growth trends can impact MDU's performance and outlook in a maturing sector.
Confirms one read:Sector revenue growth is speeding up again, reaching 5% or more.
Confirms the other:Sector revenue growth is slowing down, falling below 5%.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. At the annual stockholders’ meeting of MDU Resources Group, Inc. (the “Company”) held on May 11, 2026 (the “Annual Meeting”), the Company’s stockholders approved the MDU Resources Group, Inc. Long-Term Performance-Based Incentive Plan, as amended and restated (the “LTIP”). The material changes to the LTIP were as follows: (1) increased the number o…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 5, 2026, MDU Resources Group, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a news release (the “News Release”) announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter and full-year of 2025. A copy of the News Release is furnished as Exhibit 99 to this Current Report on Form 8-K, which, in its entirety, is incorporated herein by reference. The Company is webcasting a conference call on February 5, 2026 to discuss its fourth quarter and full-year 2025 f…