NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-08-31
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Create your account →Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Pinnacle West Capital keeps steady earnings with EPS guidance near $4.65 for 2026. It plans big investments in gas generation and transmission to support growth. Analysts expect about 6% revenue growth. The company trades below peer P/E, offering value.
EPS guidance has softened from prior years, showing some pressure. Investment plans may strain capital allocation. Free cash flow yield is negative, raising concerns about cash generation.
The price is about 9% above our fair value near $100 and 5% below the Street median target. The market expects roughly 6% revenue growth, which aligns with consensus but leaves limited upside.
Breaks if: Investment in gas generation falls significantly short of 2 GW target
Breaks if: Transmission investment falls below $6 billion
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a utility company with a long-term growth strategy. The current thesis state is cautious due to recent weak financial performance, despite improvements in company quality and management metrics.
The market currently prices PNW as cheap compared to its peers, with a low expectations gap. There is a low fragility tier, indicating that the stock is not overly sensitive to immediate changes.
Management is on track to maintain its earnings per share guidance for 2026, supported by recent performance. However, the company has shown mixed progress on its new gas generation plans, which could impact future growth.
The long-term thesis hinges on the company's ability to meet its earnings guidance and the performance of sector bellwethers like NEE, SO, and DUK. Any changes in guidance from these companies could significantly affect PNW's outlook.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The latest earnings report missed expectations. This miss raises concerns about future performance. There are no new supports to offset this weakness.
as of 2026-08-31
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: EPS guidance falls below $4.55 for FY26
Continue to target consolidated earnings within a range of $4.55 to $4.75 per diluted share on a weather-normalized basis for fiscal year 2026.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management has consistently maintained 2026 EPS guidance at $4.55 to $4.75 per diluted share on a weather-normalized basis. Reported diluted EPS grew from $0.27 in 2026-Q1 to $1.43 in 2026-Q2, supporting progress toward the annual guidance. The trajectory is delivering in line with management's stated outlook.
“The Company continues to estimate its consolidated earnings will be within a range of $4.55 to $4.75 per diluted share on a weather-normalized basis.”
“The Company continues to estimate its consolidated earnings will be within a range of $4.55 to $4.75 per diluted share on a weather-normalized basis.”
“For 2026, the Company continues to estimate its consolidated earnings will be within a range of $4.55 to $4.75 per diluted share on a weather-normalized basis.”
Breaks if: Long-term EPS growth falls below 5% annually
Overall, PNW's fundamentals are stable, but the company faces sector headwinds and must navigate its upcoming earnings guidance carefully. Not investment advice.
