Pinnacle West Capital (PNW)

NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-10-15

$103.42+1.81%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Pinnacle West Capital’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

5.54 → 5.56 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Invest in new gas generation up to 2 GWs	It plans big investments in gas generation and transmission to support growth.	Intact	Investment in gas generation falls significantly short of 2 GW target	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 4 quarters. Management has consistently announced plans for up to 2 GW of new gas generation and a 380 MW conversion of the Cholla plant by 2029. These initiatives align with the company's capital investment plans and support grid reliability. The trajectory shows ongoing commitment with project milestones expected in coming years. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Transmission expansion with $6B+ investment	A supporting condition in Pinnacle West Capital's published investment case. The stated target is >$6 billion investment in transmission.	Intact	Transmission investment falls below $6 billion	Capital expenditures: $728.667M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >$6 billion investment in transmission. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 2026728,667,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 4 quarters. Management has consistently communicated a transmission expansion plan exceeding $6 billion through 2035, including major projects to enhance reliability and market access. The capital plan and regulatory filings support this trajectory, indicating ongoing execution of the transmission investment strategy. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Maintain EPS guidance of $4.55 to $4.75 for 2026	Pinnacle West Capital keeps steady earnings with EPS guidance near $4.65 for 2026.	Intact	EPS guidance falls below $4.55 for FY26	Diluted EPS: $1.43 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=4.55 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 20261.43 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c440a556-a195-443a-b3cd-7007dc0df746. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Management consistently guided 2026 EPS within $4.55 to $4.75 per diluted share on a weather-normalized basis. Actual diluted EPS was $0.27 in 2026-Q1 and $1.43 in 2026-Q2, showing progress toward the full-year guidance. The trajectory is delivering in line with management's stated EPS guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Long-term EPS growth of 5%-7% off 2024 midpoint	A primary condition in Pinnacle West Capital's published investment case. The stated target is 5%-7% annual EPS growth.	Intact	Long-term EPS growth falls below 5% annually	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$5.56

$5.65 → $5.56 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$5.90B

$5.94B → $5.90B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$5.65	$5,943,936,150	10 / 12
2026-07-25	$5.65	$5,944,352,820	10 / 12
2026-07-26	$5.65	$5,944,352,820	10 / 12
2026-07-27	$5.56	$5,954,986,483	9 / 9
2026-07-28	$5.65	$5,944,904,280	10 / 12
2026-07-29	$5.65	$5,944,904,280	10 / 12
2026-07-30	$5.65	$5,944,904,280	10 / 12
2026-07-31	$5.65	$5,944,904,280	10 / 12
2026-08-01	$5.56	$5,954,986,483	9 / 9
2026-08-02	$5.65	$5,944,904,280	10 / 12
2026-08-03	$5.65	$5,944,904,280	10 / 12
2026-08-04	$5.65	$5,944,904,280	10 / 12
2026-08-05	$5.65	$5,944,904,280	10 / 12
2026-08-06	$5.56	$5,954,986,483	9 / 9
2026-08-07	$5.57	$5,958,635,932	9 / 9
2026-08-08	$5.65	$5,948,249,610	10 / 12
2026-08-09	$5.65	$5,948,249,610	10 / 12
2026-08-10	$5.65	$5,948,249,610	10 / 12
2026-08-12	$5.65	$5,948,249,610	10 / 12
2026-08-13	$5.65	$5,948,249,610	10 / 12
2026-08-14	$5.57	$5,958,635,932	9 / 9
2026-08-15	$5.57	$5,958,635,932	9 / 9
2026-08-16	$5.57	$5,958,635,932	9 / 9
2026-08-17	$5.57	$5,958,635,932	9 / 9
2026-08-18	$5.57	$5,958,635,932	9 / 9
2026-08-19	$5.57	$5,958,635,932	9 / 9
2026-08-20	$5.54	$5,888,734,389	8 / 8
2026-08-21	$5.54	$5,888,734,389	8 / 8
2026-08-22	$5.54	$5,888,734,389	8 / 8
2026-08-23	$5.54	$5,888,734,389	8 / 8
2026-08-24	$5.54	$5,888,734,389	8 / 8
2026-08-25	$5.54	$5,888,734,389	8 / 8
2026-08-26	$5.54	$5,888,734,389	8 / 8
2026-08-27	$5.54	$5,888,734,389	8 / 8
2026-08-28	$5.54	$5,888,734,389	8 / 8
2026-08-29	$5.54	$5,888,734,389	8 / 8
2026-08-30	$5.54	$5,888,734,389	8 / 8
2026-08-31	$5.54	$5,888,734,389	8 / 8
2026-09-01	$5.54	$5,888,734,389	8 / 8
2026-09-02	$5.54	$5,888,734,389	8 / 8
2026-09-03	$5.54	$5,888,734,389	8 / 8
2026-09-04	$5.54	$5,888,734,389	8 / 8
2026-09-05	$5.54	$5,888,734,389	8 / 8
2026-09-06	$5.54	$5,888,734,389	8 / 8
2026-09-07	$5.54	$5,888,734,389	8 / 8
2026-09-08	$5.54	$5,888,734,389	8 / 8
2026-09-09	$5.54	$5,888,734,389	8 / 8
2026-09-10	$5.54	$5,888,734,389	8 / 8
2026-09-11	$5.54	$5,888,734,389	8 / 8
2026-09-12	$5.54	$5,888,734,389	8 / 8
2026-09-13	$5.54	$5,888,734,389	8 / 8
2026-09-14	$5.54	$5,888,734,389	8 / 8
2026-09-15	$5.54	$5,888,734,389	8 / 8
2026-09-16	$5.54	$5,888,734,389	8 / 8
2026-09-17	$5.54	$5,888,734,389	8 / 8
2026-09-18	$5.54	$5,888,734,389	8 / 8
2026-09-19	$5.54	$5,888,734,389	8 / 8
2026-09-20	$5.54	$5,888,734,389	8 / 8
2026-09-21	$5.54	$5,888,734,389	8 / 8
2026-09-22	$5.54	$5,888,734,389	8 / 8
2026-09-23	$5.54	$5,888,734,389	8 / 8
2026-09-24	$5.54	$5,888,734,389	8 / 8
2026-09-25	$5.54	$5,888,734,389	8 / 8
2026-09-26	$5.54	$5,888,734,389	8 / 8
2026-09-27	$5.54	$5,888,734,389	8 / 8
2026-09-28	$5.54	$5,888,734,389	8 / 8
2026-09-29	$5.55	$5,888,734,389	8 / 8
2026-09-30	$5.55	$5,888,734,389	8 / 8
2026-10-01	$5.56	$5,899,260,950	9 / 9
2026-10-02	$5.56	$5,899,260,950	9 / 9
2026-10-03	$5.56	$5,900,560,950	9 / 9
2026-10-04	$5.56	$5,900,560,950	9 / 9
2026-10-05	$5.56	$5,900,560,950	9 / 9
2026-10-06	$5.56	$5,900,560,950	9 / 9
2026-10-07	$5.56	$5,900,560,950	9 / 9
2026-10-08	$5.56	$5,900,560,950	9 / 9
2026-10-09	$5.56	$5,900,560,950	9 / 9
2026-10-10	$5.56	$5,900,560,950	9 / 9
2026-10-11	$5.56	$5,900,560,950	9 / 9
2026-10-12	$5.56	$5,900,560,950	9 / 9
2026-10-13	$5.56	$5,900,560,950	9 / 9
2026-10-14	$5.56	$5,900,050,950	9 / 9
2026-10-15	$5.56	$5,900,050,950	9 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	4	13	1
2026-06-01	4	12	1
2026-07-01	4	12	1
2026-08-01	4	12	1
2026-09-01	5	11	1
2026-10-01	5	11	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Truist FinancialOct 5 · prior Aug 17

$101.00 → $99.00-2.0%

JefferiesOct 5 · prior Jul 8

$129.00 → $109.00-15.5%

BarclaysOct 1 · prior Jul 1

$108.00 → $94.00-13.0%

ScotiabankSep 29

$104.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$70.95$141.90

0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Invest in new gas generation up to 2 GWsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Transmission expansion with $6B+ investmentCapital expenditures: $728.667M
Maintain EPS guidance of $4.55 to $4.75 for 2026Diluted EPS: $1.43 per share
Long-term EPS growth of 5%-7% off 2024 midpointDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-16.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Pinnacle West Capital outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a utility investment with a focus on stability and long-term growth. The current thesis state reflects mixed recent performance but a commitment to strategic priorities.

What's priced into Pinnacle West Capital

The market appears to have priced in a cheap valuation compared to peers, with a slight expectations gap. There is a low fragility tier, indicating that the current valuation is justified despite recent earnings misses.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals may improve if management successfully maintains EPS guidance and executes on their capital investment plans. However, there is a near-term risk of further earnings misses, which could impact investor sentiment.

What Pinnacle West Capital hinges on

Key factors for the future include the Fed's interest rate decisions and the performance of sector bellwethers. Additionally, any changes in guidance from PNW could significantly affect market expectations.