Black Hills Corporation (BKH)

NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-10-23

$79.41+0.13%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Black Hills Corporation’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	791.45M
EPS	—	1.61
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.43B
EPS	$4.25–$4.45non-GAAP	4.353
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	3.45B
EPS	—	4.623

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Enhance cash from operating activities	Cash from operations improved to $176.2 million, supporting financial health.	Intact	Cash from operations falls below $176.2 million next quarter	Cash from operations: $195.1M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Cash from operations >= $176.2 million next quarter. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Aug 6, 2026195,100,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain EPS guidance of $4.25 to $4.45 for fiscal year 2026	A primary condition in Black Hills Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is EPS between $4.25 and $4.45.	Under Pressure	EPS falls below $4.25 or above $4.45 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 of the 3 supplied transcript periods. Management reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $4.25 to $4.45 per share; 2026-Q2 adjusted EPS was $0.54, compared with $0.38 in 2025-Q2. The quarter's adjusted EPS improved year over year and guidance was unchanged, indicating progress on the stated earnings plan, though one quarter does not establish full-year delivery. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Operating income stability and growth	Operating income rose to $201.9 million in Q1 2026, showing steady profit.	Intact	Operating income falls below $201.9 million next quarter	Operating income: $97M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $201.9 million next quarter. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Aug 6, 202697,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1ba77370-5e6a-4e42-a6ae-3bf992d514b9. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Successful approval and implementation of rate increases	A supporting condition in Black Hills Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is At least one rate increase approved and implemented in 2026.	Improving	No rate increases approved or implemented in 2026	Rate increase requested (Jun 2026) vs target: approved in 2026 News confirms BHE requested higher rates in June 2026, but no subsequent approval or implementation is reported. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$4.61 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.61	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-25	$4.61	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-26	$4.61	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-27	$4.61	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-28	$4.61	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-29	$4.61	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-30	$4.61	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-31	$4.61	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-01	$4.61	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-02	$4.61	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-03	$4.61	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-04	$4.61	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-05	$4.61	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-06	$4.61	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-08	$4.61	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-09	$4.61	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-10	$4.61	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-11	$4.61	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-12	$4.61	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-13	$4.61	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	4	1
2026-06-01	5	1
2026-07-01	5	0
2026-08-01	5	0
2026-09-01	5	1
2026-10-01	7	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

JefferiesOct 14

$87.00New observation · no comparable prior

BMO CapitalOct 8 · prior Apr 15

$91.00 → $86.00-5.5%

$0$50.05$100.10

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Enhance cash from operating activitiesCash from operations: $195.1M
Maintain EPS guidance of $4.25 to $4.45 for fiscal year 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Operating income stability and growthOperating income: $97M

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-11.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Black Hills Corporation outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

BKH is a regulated Utilities business with a multi-year thesis tied to steady operations and growth projects. The thesis is intact, supported by recent financial performance in the top half of its industry, though execution on major projects remains incomplete.

What's priced into Black Hills Corporation

The valuation evidence is mixed: BKH is described as cheap versus peers, yet it also carries a substantial premium to peers and the overall value assessment is expensive. The priced-in assessment says expectations are justified and fragility is low, but the negative expectations gap suggests the setup is not broadly undemanding.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results have been strong, and management reaffirmed guidance in August, though a recent earnings miss and a trend of declining earnings surprises leave some risk. Over the multi-year view, progress depends on completing the NorthWestern merger, advancing Wyoming data-center demand, and finishing Lange II; the supplied evidence does not yet confirm completion or the projects’ full financial contribution.

What Black Hills Corporation hinges on

A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while rate cuts could support Utilities and continued strong results from sector peers could support sector momentum. The longer-term swing factors are Montana regulatory approval for the merger, definitive agreements for the prospective data-center project, and execution of Lange II by its planned year-end 2026 service date.