Dominion Energy (D)

NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-10-15

$63.56+1.11%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Dominion Energy’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.81 → 3.81 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS growth of 9% or more annually	A primary condition in Dominion Energy's published investment case. The stated target is >=9% annual EPS growth.	Under Pressure	annual EPS growth falls below 9% over the next 5 years	Diluted EPS growth: -57.95% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=9% annual EPS growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 2026-57.954545 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 30f2eba7-e16f-4fca-bb60-a191de4b4c47. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 of last 3 quarters. Management reiterated 9%+ adjusted EPS growth expectations through 2032 in 2026-Q1 and 2025-Q4. This is consistent with the company’s communicated long-term growth ambition, though no direct financial results for this horizon are yet available. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Merger regulatory approval without major delays	A primary condition in Dominion Energy's published investment case. The stated target is Merger approved on schedule without major delays.	Under Pressure	Regulatory delays or blocks delay merger benefits beyond 12 months	Qualitative: Political opposition (VA Lt. Gov) vs. schedule target Virginia Lt. Governor opposes deal; litigation filed; benefits sweetened to counter political backlash. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth near 6% per year	A supporting condition in Dominion Energy's published investment case. The stated target is >=6% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	revenue growth falls below 6% next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 of last 3 quarters. Management reiterated 9%+ adjusted EPS growth expectations through 2032 in 2026-Q1 and 2025-Q4. This is consistent with the company’s communicated long-term growth ambition, though no direct financial results for this horizon are yet available. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.81

$3.82 → $3.81 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$19.58B

$19.10B → $19.58B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.82	$19,100,350,410	19 / 13
2026-07-25	$3.82	$19,199,081,180	19 / 13
2026-07-26	$3.82	$19,199,081,180	19 / 13
2026-07-27	$3.82	$19,486,298,390	19 / 9
2026-07-28	$3.82	$19,486,298,390	19 / 9
2026-07-29	$3.81	$19,357,405,043	11 / 7
2026-07-30	$3.82	$19,371,960,680	19 / 8
2026-07-31	$3.82	$19,371,960,680	19 / 8
2026-08-01	$3.81	$19,357,405,043	11 / 7
2026-08-02	$3.82	$19,386,681,930	19 / 8
2026-08-03	$3.81	$19,357,405,043	11 / 7
2026-08-04	$3.81	$19,357,405,043	11 / 7
2026-08-05	$3.82	$19,386,696,930	19 / 8
2026-08-06	$3.82	$19,386,696,930	19 / 8
2026-08-07	$3.81	$19,357,405,043	11 / 7
2026-08-08	$3.82	$19,386,696,930	19 / 8
2026-08-09	$3.81	$19,357,405,043	11 / 7
2026-08-10	$3.81	$19,357,405,043	11 / 7
2026-08-11	$3.81	$19,357,405,043	11 / 7
2026-08-12	$3.81	$19,357,405,043	11 / 7
2026-08-13	$3.82	$19,414,955,810	19 / 8
2026-08-14	$3.81	$19,357,405,043	11 / 7
2026-08-15	$3.81	$19,357,405,043	11 / 7
2026-08-16	$3.81	$19,357,405,043	10 / 7
2026-08-17	$3.81	$19,357,405,043	10 / 7
2026-08-18	$3.81	$19,357,405,043	10 / 7
2026-08-19	$3.81	$19,357,405,043	10 / 7
2026-08-20	$3.81	$19,385,811,531	10 / 6
2026-08-21	$3.81	$19,385,811,531	10 / 7
2026-08-22	$3.81	$19,385,811,531	10 / 7
2026-08-23	$3.81	$19,385,811,531	10 / 7
2026-08-24	$3.81	$19,385,811,531	10 / 7
2026-08-25	$3.81	$19,383,163,384	10 / 7
2026-08-26	$3.81	$19,383,163,384	10 / 7
2026-08-27	$3.81	$19,383,163,384	10 / 7
2026-08-28	$3.81	$19,383,163,384	10 / 7
2026-08-29	$3.81	$19,486,679,722	10 / 7
2026-08-30	$3.81	$19,486,679,722	10 / 7
2026-08-31	$3.81	$19,486,679,722	10 / 7
2026-09-01	$3.81	$19,486,679,722	10 / 7
2026-09-02	$3.81	$19,486,679,722	10 / 7
2026-09-03	$3.81	$19,486,679,722	10 / 7
2026-09-04	$3.81	$19,486,679,722	10 / 7
2026-09-05	$3.81	$19,486,679,722	10 / 7
2026-09-06	$3.81	$19,486,679,722	10 / 7
2026-09-07	$3.81	$19,486,679,722	10 / 7
2026-09-08	$3.81	$19,486,679,722	10 / 7
2026-09-09	$3.81	$19,486,679,722	10 / 7
2026-09-10	$3.81	$19,486,679,722	10 / 7
2026-09-11	$3.81	$19,486,679,722	10 / 7
2026-09-12	$3.81	$19,486,679,722	10 / 7
2026-09-13	$3.81	$19,486,679,722	10 / 7
2026-09-14	$3.81	$19,486,679,722	10 / 7
2026-09-15	$3.81	$19,486,679,722	10 / 7
2026-09-16	$3.81	$19,486,679,722	10 / 7
2026-09-17	$3.81	$19,486,679,722	10 / 7
2026-09-18	$3.81	$19,486,679,722	10 / 7
2026-09-19	$3.81	$19,486,679,722	10 / 7
2026-09-20	$3.81	$19,529,463,810	10 / 7
2026-09-21	$3.81	$19,529,463,810	10 / 7
2026-09-22	$3.81	$19,529,463,810	10 / 7
2026-09-23	$3.81	$19,529,463,810	10 / 7
2026-09-24	$3.81	$19,529,463,810	10 / 7
2026-09-25	$3.81	$19,585,058,009	10 / 7
2026-09-26	$3.81	$19,585,058,009	10 / 7
2026-09-27	$3.81	$19,585,058,009	10 / 7
2026-09-28	$3.81	$19,585,058,009	10 / 7
2026-09-29	$3.81	$19,585,058,009	10 / 7
2026-09-30	$3.81	$19,585,058,009	10 / 7
2026-10-01	$3.81	$19,585,058,009	10 / 7
2026-10-02	$3.81	$19,585,058,009	10 / 7
2026-10-03	$3.81	$19,585,058,009	10 / 7
2026-10-04	$3.81	$19,585,058,009	10 / 7
2026-10-05	$3.81	$19,585,058,009	10 / 7
2026-10-06	$3.81	$19,585,058,009	10 / 7
2026-10-07	$3.81	$19,585,058,009	10 / 7
2026-10-08	$3.81	$19,585,058,009	10 / 7
2026-10-09	$3.81	$19,585,058,009	10 / 7
2026-10-10	$3.81	$19,585,058,009	10 / 7
2026-10-11	$3.81	$19,585,330,736	10 / 7
2026-10-12	$3.81	$19,585,330,736	10 / 7
2026-10-13	$3.81	$19,585,330,736	10 / 7
2026-10-14	$3.81	$19,583,203,464	10 / 7
2026-10-15	$3.81	$19,583,203,464	10 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	3	17	1
2026-06-01	2	14	0
2026-07-01	2	14	0
2026-08-01	3	14	0
2026-09-01	5	12	0
2026-10-01	5	11	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Truist FinancialOct 12 · prior Aug 13

$66.00 → $62.00-6.1%

$0$36.30$72.60

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS growth of 9% or more annuallyPublished status: Under Pressure
Merger regulatory approval without major delaysPublished status: Under Pressure
Revenue growth near 6% per yearDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 30, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-15.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Dominion Energy outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a utility stock with stable earnings potential. The current thesis state reflects a cautious approach due to recent weak financial performance and mixed management execution.

What's priced into Dominion Energy

The market appears to have priced in a neutral valuation, with D being relatively cheap compared to its peers. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that the market is not overly optimistic about future performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals may remain stable in the near term, given the low risk of missing earnings guidance. However, the recent history of earnings misses among industry peers adds a layer of caution.

What Dominion Energy hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to affirm earnings guidance and successfully execute on key projects like the Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind initiative. Additionally, broader sector performance and interest rate movements will play a significant role.