Sempra (SRE)

NYSEUtilitiesDiversified UtilitiesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$83.41+1.81%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Sempra’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

5.53 → 5.53 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS grows to at least $5.3 in FY26 and $5.7 in FY27	Sempra grows earnings steadily with EPS guided to $5.3 in 2026 and $5.7 in 2027.	Intact	EPS falls below $4.8 in FY26 or below $5.1 in FY27	Diluted EPS: $1.21 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $5.3 FY26, >= $5.7 FY27. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20261.21 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a3dc9ae4-80e0-4a41-a253-3f75cba60321. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Sempra affirmed its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance range of $4.80 to $5.30 consistently, with reported diluted EPS of $1.58 in 2026-Q1 and $1.21 in 2026-Q2. The trajectory shows stable reaffirmation of guidance with reported quarterly EPS supporting the target range, indicating delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Successful LNG project starts and production ramp	A primary condition in Sempra's published investment case. The stated target is Sustain LNG production ramp and new project completions.	Intact	Delays or failures in LNG project startups or production	Qualitative: 3 successful LNG project starts/completions vs target of sustained ramp News reports successful LNG production starts at ECA Phase 1 and Mexico, and Louisiana Connector project completion, reinforcing the capital plan. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Stable management and execution of strategy	A supporting condition in Sempra's published investment case. The stated target is No major management disruptions or strategy shifts.	Intact	Significant management turnover or strategy reversal	No major disruptions Internal CFO promotion noted. $65B capital plan advancing with Aramco deal and ECA LNG production start. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows at least 2% in FY26	A supporting condition in Sempra's published investment case. The stated target is >= 2% YoY revenue growth FY26.	Intact	Revenue growth falls below 0% in FY26	Revenue growth: 3.67% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 2% YoY revenue growth FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20263.666667 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a3dc9ae4-80e0-4a41-a253-3f75cba60321. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$5.53

$5.52 → $5.53 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$13.38B

$13.47B → $13.38B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$5.52	$13,466,038,316	10 / 10
2026-07-25	$5.54	$13,920,402,000	17 / 13
2026-07-26	$5.54	$13,882,386,610	17 / 13
2026-07-27	$5.52	$13,428,021,225	10 / 10
2026-07-28	$5.52	$13,428,021,225	10 / 10
2026-07-29	$5.54	$13,882,386,610	17 / 13
2026-07-30	$5.52	$13,428,021,225	10 / 10
2026-07-31	$5.54	$13,882,386,610	17 / 13
2026-08-01	$5.52	$13,428,021,225	10 / 10
2026-08-02	$5.54	$13,882,386,610	17 / 13
2026-08-03	$5.54	$13,882,386,610	17 / 13
2026-08-04	$5.54	$13,882,386,610	17 / 13
2026-08-05	$5.52	$13,428,021,225	10 / 10
2026-08-06	$5.52	$13,428,021,225	10 / 10
2026-08-08	$5.53	$13,719,466,000	18 / 12
2026-08-09	$5.52	$13,428,021,225	10 / 9
2026-08-10	$5.52	$13,428,021,225	10 / 9
2026-08-12	$5.52	$13,428,021,225	10 / 9
2026-08-13	$5.52	$13,428,021,225	10 / 9
2026-08-14	$5.52	$13,428,021,225	10 / 9
2026-08-15	$5.52	$13,428,021,225	10 / 9
2026-08-16	$5.52	$13,428,021,225	10 / 10
2026-08-17	$5.52	$13,428,021,225	10 / 10
2026-08-18	$5.52	$13,428,021,225	10 / 9
2026-08-19	$5.52	$13,428,021,225	10 / 9
2026-08-20	$5.52	$13,399,964,517	10 / 9
2026-08-21	$5.52	$13,399,964,517	10 / 9
2026-08-22	$5.52	$13,399,964,517	10 / 9
2026-08-23	$5.52	$13,399,964,517	10 / 9
2026-08-24	$5.52	$13,399,964,517	10 / 9
2026-08-25	$5.52	$13,399,964,517	10 / 9
2026-08-26	$5.52	$13,399,964,517	10 / 9
2026-08-27	$5.52	$13,399,964,517	10 / 9
2026-08-28	$5.52	$13,399,964,517	10 / 9
2026-08-29	$5.52	$13,399,964,517	10 / 9
2026-08-30	$5.52	$13,399,964,517	10 / 9
2026-08-31	$5.52	$13,399,964,517	10 / 9
2026-09-01	$5.52	$13,502,747,236	10 / 9
2026-09-02	$5.52	$13,399,997,448	10 / 9
2026-09-03	$5.52	$13,390,142,985	10 / 9
2026-09-04	$5.52	$13,390,142,985	10 / 9
2026-09-05	$5.52	$13,390,142,985	10 / 9
2026-09-06	$5.52	$13,390,142,985	10 / 9
2026-09-07	$5.52	$13,390,142,985	10 / 9
2026-09-08	$5.52	$13,390,142,985	10 / 9
2026-09-09	$5.52	$13,390,142,985	10 / 9
2026-09-10	$5.52	$13,390,142,985	10 / 9
2026-09-11	$5.52	$13,390,142,985	10 / 9
2026-09-12	$5.52	$13,390,142,985	10 / 9
2026-09-13	$5.52	$13,390,142,985	10 / 9
2026-09-14	$5.52	$13,390,142,985	10 / 9
2026-09-15	$5.53	$13,390,142,985	10 / 9
2026-09-16	$5.53	$13,390,142,985	10 / 9
2026-09-17	$5.53	$13,390,142,985	10 / 9
2026-09-18	$5.53	$13,390,142,985	10 / 9
2026-09-19	$5.53	$13,390,142,985	10 / 9
2026-09-20	$5.53	$13,368,805,560	10 / 9
2026-09-21	$5.53	$13,368,805,560	10 / 9
2026-09-22	$5.53	$13,368,805,560	10 / 9
2026-09-23	$5.53	$13,368,805,560	10 / 9
2026-09-24	$5.53	$13,368,344,022	10 / 9
2026-09-25	$5.53	$13,368,344,022	10 / 9
2026-09-26	$5.53	$13,368,344,022	10 / 9
2026-09-27	$5.53	$13,368,344,022	10 / 9
2026-09-28	$5.53	$13,368,344,022	10 / 9
2026-09-29	$5.53	$13,368,344,022	10 / 9
2026-09-30	$5.53	$13,368,344,022	10 / 9
2026-10-01	$5.53	$13,368,344,022	10 / 9
2026-10-02	$5.53	$13,368,344,022	10 / 9
2026-10-03	$5.53	$13,368,344,022	10 / 9
2026-10-04	$5.53	$13,368,344,022	10 / 9
2026-10-05	$5.53	$13,368,344,022	10 / 9
2026-10-06	$5.53	$13,368,344,022	10 / 9
2026-10-07	$5.53	$13,368,344,022	10 / 9
2026-10-08	$5.53	$13,368,344,022	10 / 9
2026-10-09	$5.53	$13,368,344,022	10 / 9
2026-10-10	$5.53	$13,368,344,022	10 / 9
2026-10-11	$5.53	$13,368,344,022	10 / 9
2026-10-12	$5.53	$13,365,113,253	10 / 9
2026-10-13	$5.53	$13,367,512,558	10 / 9
2026-10-14	$5.53	$13,367,513,253	10 / 9
2026-10-15	$5.53	$13,381,250,953	10 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	14	5
2026-06-01	14	5
2026-07-01	15	5
2026-08-01	15	5
2026-09-01	16	5
2026-10-01	16	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 16 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Truist FinancialOct 14 · prior Sep 3

$96.00 → $94.00-2.1%

BarclaysOct 12 · prior Jul 9

$103.00 → $90.00-12.6%

ScotiabankSep 29

$83.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$56.65$113.30

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS grows to at least $5.3 in FY26 and $5.7 in FY27Diluted EPS: $1.21 per share
Revenue grows at least 2% in FY26Revenue growth: 3.67%

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-22.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Sempra outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on utility infrastructure. The current thesis state is intact, although confidence has shifted to medium due to mixed management performance and sector challenges.

What's priced into Sempra

The valuation is considered expensive relative to peers, with the market pricing in some fragility due to weak execution quality. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that the market may be cautious about future performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are expected to remain stable, as management continues to execute on its $65 billion capital plan. However, there is a mixed outlook on earnings guidance for 2026 and 2027, which could impact future performance.

What Sempra hinges on

The thesis hinges on several factors, including the potential for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which could benefit SRE. Additionally, the company's ability to maintain or improve earnings guidance will be crucial, as will the performance of sector peers.