Reading SNEX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SNEX free→Reading SNEX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SNEX free→NASDAQFinancialsCapital MarketsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, with robust earnings quality and stable management. However, the sector backdrop is a headwind, and the risk is moderate. Peer multiples imply a price about 24% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, quality intact. The outlook hinges on guidance changes and sector trends, particularly how major financial firms perform. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $135.73. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $136 SNEX trades at 22× p/e, in line with its 19× p/e peer median. Our $109 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 24% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 11%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 14.18x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.22 → $1.23 (+0.8% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$161.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$334.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,091.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a potential slowdown in the financial sector. This could impact StoneX's performance and investor sentiment.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 12% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth remains at or above 12% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SNEX yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 6, 2026, the StoneX Group Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release on the subject of the Company's results of operations and financial condition for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. The press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein. The information furnished under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Investment Banking & Brokerage.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SNEX StoneX Group Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | full | moderate |
MS Morgan Stanley | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 57 of 100 | full | moderate |
GS Goldman Sachs | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 45 of 100 | full | moderate |
SCHW Charles Schwab Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | fair | moderate |
IBKR Interactive Brokers | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Complete the integration of R.J. O'Brien and achieve targeted synergies.
Focus on increasing revenue growth across all segments.
Improve cash flow from operations to support business growth.
Enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Why it matters: High revenue growth shows strong demand. It also means a good business strategy.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 30% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth falls below 20% year over year.
Why it matters: Going over this amount would show strong growth and good performance.
Confirms:Q2 net operating revenues are reported at more than $800 million.
Disproves:Q2 net operating revenues are less than $700 million.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow shows better management of working capital. This is important for funding growth.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations reported above $3B for Q2.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations remains below $3B for Q2.
Why it matters: Better cash flow supports growth and financial stability.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations rises a lot compared to Q1 2026.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations decreases or remains stagnant.
Why it matters: Better operating income helps with long-term profits and cash flow.
Confirms:Operating income shows a big increase from Q1 2026.
Disproves:Operating income falls or stays the same compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Falling below this level may show weaker profits and less efficiency.
Confirms:Q2 ROE reported at 25% or higher.
Disproves:Q2 ROE reported below 25%.
Why it matters: An EPS below this level could show lower profits and affect investor feelings.
Confirms:Q2 diluted EPS reported at $2.00 or higher.
Disproves:Q2 diluted EPS falls below $2.00.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 4, 2026, the StoneX Group Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release on the subject of the Company's results of operations and financial condition for the fiscal quarter ended December 31, 2025. The press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein. The information furnished under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchang…
Other Events On February 3, 2026, the Company’s Board of Directors approved a three-for-two split of its common stock. The stock split will be effected as a stock dividend entitling each stockholder of record to receive one additional share of common stock for every two shares owned. Additional shares issued as a result of the stock dividend will be distributed after close of trading on March 20, 2026, to stockholders of record at the close of business on March 10, 2026. Cash will be distribu…