StoneX Group Inc. (SNEX)

NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$56.55-1.31%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge StoneX Group Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	1.47B
EPS	—	1.144
Annual ending 2027-09-30
Revenue	—	5.94B
EPS	—	4.425
Annual ending 2028-09-30
Revenue	—	6.19B
EPS	—	4.658

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain positive cash flow from operations above $2.8B	Cash flow improved sharply, from negative $1.26B to positive $2.8B, supporting growth.	Broken	cash flow from operations falls below zero next quarter	Cash from operations: $-1.337B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.8B. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 5, 2026-1,336,700,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q3. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Cash from operating activities fluctuated significantly, with $2.8B in 2026-Q2 but negative $1.3B in 2026-Q1. This volatility indicates limited progress in consistently enhancing cash flow from operations despite management focus. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Achieve EPS at or above $2.07 next quarter and $2.5 in Q4 2026	Profit beats show good earnings power, with EPS at $2.07 beating estimates by 39%.	Broken	EPS falls below $2.07 in 2026-Q3 or below $2.5 in 2026-Q4	Diluted EPS: $1.00 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.07 for 2026-Q3 and >= $2.5 for 2026-Q4. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20261 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ba706436-3098-4a08-93fd-eb0976a55dbe. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Complete integration of R.J. O'Brien and realize synergies	O'Brien well, unlocking synergies.	Intact	integration progress stalls or reverses	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustain revenue growth above $45.7B in 2026-Q2	A primary condition in StoneX Group Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $45.7B.	Broken	revenue falls below $39B in any quarter next year	Revenue: $40.193B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $45.7B. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 5, 202640,193,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ba706436-3098-4a08-93fd-eb0976a55dbe. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue growth is strong with Commercial segment revenues up 97%, Institutional up 40%, and Payments up 13% year-over-year in 2026-Q2. Management's statements about double-digit growth in key segments align with these financial results, showing delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	2	0
2026-06-01	2	0
2026-07-01	2	1
2026-08-01	1	1
2026-09-01	1	1
2026-10-01	1	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 8

$160.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$88.00$176.00

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain positive cash flow from operations above $2.8BPublished status: Broken
Achieve EPS at or above $2.07 next quarter and $2.5 in Q4 2026Published status: Broken
Complete integration of R.J. O'Brien and realize synergiesDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Sustain revenue growth above $45.7B in 2026-Q2Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 23, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-39.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

StoneX Group Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

SNEX is a financial company with growth supported by acquisition integration and revenue expansion across segments. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: management is progressing on key priorities, but recent financial performance is weak and earnings quality is fragile.

What's priced into StoneX Group Inc.

Valuation is cheap versus peers, but the expectations gap is notable and model confidence is medium. The evidence labels priced-in fragility as low, so the current setup does not appear to reflect a broad stack of weak execution, expensive valuation, and turbulence.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, segment growth and the R.J. O’Brien integration provide support: management says integration is on track, and 2026-Q2 revenue rose across Commercial, Institutional, and Payments. Cash from operations remains volatile, recent performance is weak relative to the industry cohort, and risk has moved from moderate to elevated.

What StoneX Group Inc. hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on continued integration progress, growth across segments, and more consistent operating cash flow. A guidance cut or Federal Reserve rate cuts would weigh on the setup, while continued strong results and guidance from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.

Bottom line

For the 1-3 year view, SNEX has credible growth and integration progress, but weak recent performance, fragile earnings quality, and elevated risk leave execution as the central question. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.