StoneX Group Inc. (SNEX)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-09-09
$69.34+0.39%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Achieve EPS at or above $2.07 next quarter and $2.5 in Q4 2026: EPS $1.00 vs $2.07 target.
StoneX grows revenue strongly, up from $39B to $45.7B in one quarter. Profit beats show good earnings power, with EPS at $2.07 beating estimates by 39%. Cash flow improved sharply, from negative $1.26B to positive $2.8B, supporting growth. The company is integrating R.J. O'Brien well, unlocking synergies.
Revenue growth could slow below analyst expectations of 11% next year. EPS guidance is soft and uncertain, with low-end EPS of $2.07 next quarter. Cash flow gains may not sustain if market conditions worsen.
The stock trades about 23% above our fair value near $101, reflecting analyst expectations of 11% revenue growth. Our view is cautious given the soft EPS guidance and recent market pullback.
Breaks if: cash flow from operations falls below zero next quarter
Breaks if: EPS falls below $2.07 in 2026-Q3 or below $2.5 in 2026-Q4
integration progress stalls or reverses
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story with a focus on improving operational metrics. However, the current thesis state is weakened due to recent financial performance dropping significantly within its industry.
The market currently prices SNEX as cheap compared to its peers, reflecting a low expectations gap. However, this valuation may not fully account for the fragility in earnings quality and recent execution challenges.
Fundamentals may show mixed results in the near term. While revenue growth is strong in key segments, cash flow from operations remains volatile, indicating challenges in achieving consistent performance.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to successfully integrate the R.J. O'Brien acquisition and maintain revenue growth. Additionally, the performance of sector bellwethers will be crucial in determining SNEX's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The primary reason is that SNEX's recent financial performance fell significantly. It dropped from the robust 88th percentile to the 7th percentile of its sector. This change indicates a decline in the company's standing among peers. Additionally, the integration of the R.J. O'Brien acquisition is a positive factor, but it does not outweigh the recent performance issues.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Complete the integration of R.J. O'Brien and achieve targeted synergies.
Breaks if: revenue falls below $39B in any quarter next year
In the next 1 to 3 years, SNEX's outlook will depend on operational improvements and external sector influences. Not investment advice.