Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesGrocery StoresSnapshot 2026-10-30
$49.70+3.54%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesGrocery StoresSnapshot 2026-10-30
Research Workspace
Put SFM beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Consumer Staples is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — EPS around $5.40 in 2026: Comparison needs review.
View ThesisRevenue growth is slowing — up about 5% over the past year and decelerating.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityManagement screens strong on capital allocation, earnings delivery.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 47% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskSFM’s case rests on strong recent performance and above-sector earnings yield, though earnings quality remains mixed. Revenue growth has stayed modest, and Third Quarter 2026 missed expectations. That quarter’s revenue grew 5% year over year, following 5% growth in Q2. SFM trades at 9× P/E versus a 16× peer median and 15× its history. The price reflects less growth than our forecast, despite the recent miss and outlook pressure. A specific risk is the 2026 comp-sales forecast of negative 1.7% amid a national pricing reset. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 16%. Peer multiples imply a price about 38% above where it trades; the thesis is on watch.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. SFM is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 17 analysts currently covering SFM (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 9 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for SFM in the last 4 months.
Continue this research
Compare SFM with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SFM Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Food Retail — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put SFM next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Weak outlook and broad target cuts signal a meaningful growth-expectations reset, though details are absent.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $49.70
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $49.70.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Threatens: Drive traffic and deepen customer engagement
Negative 2026 comp guidance and a pricing reset point to meaningful traffic and sales pressure.
Weak guidance and a quarterly miss signal meaningful operating pressure and prompted a sharp share decline.
Threatens: Drive traffic and deepen customer engagement
Traffic decline challenges customer-engagement progress despite reported growth and a sharp share-price reaction.
Threatens: Increase revenue growth
Outlook cuts tied to an outbreak indicate a significant sales headwind.
Threatens: Increase revenue growth
Negative comps indicate potential revenue growth issues.
Advances: Accelerate customer engagement
HQ expansion supports customer engagement and growth objectives.
Advances: Expand access to healthy food
New store enhances access to healthy food in Connecticut.
