Reading SFM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SFM free→Reading SFM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SFM free→NASDAQConsumer StaplesGrocery StoresSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, while management's recent track record has been steady. Earnings quality is mixed, and risk is elevated, with the sector backdrop presenting a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 7% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, priced roughly in line with peer multiples. Key factors to watch include potential guidance cuts and sector trends, as these could significantly impact SFM's outlook. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $83.61. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $84 SFM trades at 16× p/e, below its 17× p/e peer median. Our $90 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $70–$114. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 7% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated strong grew net income 66% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=1144).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.29x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1382).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated stable grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=379).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.36 → $1.34 (-1.1% / 30d). 5 raised, 6 cut, 12 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 4.5% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$175.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$363.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,217.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Store sales show how well customers engage and how the company grows. Better sales mean better performance.
Confirms:Q2 comparable store sales turn positive or improve from the guided range of (2)% to 0%.
Disproves:In Q2, store sales fell below (2)%. This is a further decline.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SFM yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Principal Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Principal Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Appointment of Andrew Jhawar to the Board of Directors On May 19, 2026, Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. (the “Company”) announced the appointment of Andrew Jhawar to its Board of Directors (the “Board”) as a Class III director with a term expiring at the Company’s 2028 annual meeting of stockholders. Mr. Jhawar will serve on the Audit Committee of…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$70.00 – $114.00 (median $90.00) · 9 analysts · as of 2026-04-24
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Food Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SFM Sprouts Farmers Market | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | fair | elevated |
KR Kroger | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
CASY Casey's | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 44 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CART Maplebear Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | elevated |
ACI Albertsons | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on enhancing customer engagement through foraging and discovery.
Continue expanding access to healthy food through store openings and product offerings.
Focus on building a supply chain that enhances operational efficiency and product availability.
Focus on achieving net sales growth between 4.5% and 6.5% for 2026.
Continue efforts to improve gross profit margins through operational efficiencies.
Why it matters: Earnings per share shows how profitable a company is. Meeting goals shows stability.
Confirms:Q2 diluted earnings per share lands within or above the guided range of $1.32 to $1.36.
Disproves:Q2 diluted earnings per share falls below $1.32.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key priority for Sprouts. Strong growth signals success in their strategy.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth falls below 3% year over year.
Why it matters: Higher operating income is important for lasting success. It shows how healthy the business is.
Confirms:Operating income grows more than 5% year over year in Q2.
Disproves:Operating income declines or grows less than 2% year over year in Q2.
Why it matters: Better margins mean lower costs and stronger pricing. This is key for making money.
Confirms:Gross profit margin increases by more than 1% compared to Q1.
Disproves:Gross profit margin decreases or stays flat compared to Q1.
Why it matters: CPI affects consumer spending and pricing strategies. Changes can impact Sprouts' sales.
Confirms one read:CPI report shows inflation below 2% year over year.
Confirms the other:CPI report shows inflation above 4% year over year.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its results of operations for its first fiscal quarter ended March 29, 2026. On the same date, the Company posted on its investor relations website, located at investors.sprouts.com , a PowerPoint presentation (the “Earnings Presentation”) that will be used by management during the Company’s earnings conference call. A copy of the press release and t…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 19, 2026, Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its results of operations for its fourth fiscal quarter and fiscal year ended December 28, 2025. On the same date, the Company posted on its investor relations website, located at investors.sprouts.com , a PowerPoint presentation (the “Earnings Presentation”) that will be used by management during the Company’s earnings conference call. A copy of…
Departure of Directors or Principal Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Principal Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Retirement of J. Scott Neal as Chief Merchandising Officer On February 16, 2026, J. Scott Neal, Chief Merchandising Officer of Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. (the “Company”), advised the Company of his intent to retire from his position with the Company, effective immediately. It is expected that Mr. Neal will continue to serve the Company in an…