Reading ACI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ACI free→Reading ACI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ACI free→NYSEConsumer StaplesGrocery StoresSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop presents a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 61% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This valuation is supported by the fact that ACI trades below peer multiples, and the recent financials and earnings quality are not flashing deterioration. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $15.09. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $15 ACI trades at 7× p/e, below its 17× p/e peer median. Our $39 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $19–$23. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 62% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated strong grew net income 66% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=1144).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.84x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1382).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=491).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.46 → $0.46 (-0.2% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 18 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 58% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 14.8% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$116.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$275.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,305.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Digital sales growth is key for Albertsons' strategy. A drop signals trouble in this area.
Confirms:Q1 2026 digital sales growth below 16%.
Disproves:Q1 2026 digital sales growth at or above 16%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Litigation could impact merger and growth plans.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 14, 2026, Albertsons Companies, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the 13 and 53 weeks ended February 28, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report and incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exch…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$19.00 – $23.00 (median $20.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-05-18
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2024-Q2, 2024-Q3, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Food Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ACI Albertsons | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
KR Kroger | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
CASY Casey's | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 44 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CART Maplebear Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | elevated |
SFM Sprouts Farmers Market | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | fair | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on growing digital sales and expanding the loyalty program to enhance customer engagement.
Maintain disciplined capital allocation with a focus on strategic investments and cost management.
Invest in customer value proposition to support sustainable, long-term growth.
Why it matters: Same sales growth is key for revenue. A drop shows bigger problems.
Confirms:Same sales growth is below 0.0% in fiscal 2026.
Disproves:Identical sales growth at or above 0.0% in fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Timely payments are important for managing debts. Delays can hurt cash flow.
Confirms:Payments for the Opioid Settlement Framework start on time.
Disproves:Payments for the Opioid Settlement Framework are delayed.
Why it matters: It is important to manage spending. Overspending can hurt financial health.
Confirms:Capital spending in fiscal 2026 is over $2.2 billion.
Disproves:Capital spending in fiscal 2026 is at or below $2.0 billion.
Regulatory scrutiny could delay merger plans.
Congress skepticism may impact merger approval.
Defensive statements may support merger viability.
Other Events. On April 14, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing that the Board of Directors increased the quarterly cash dividend 13% from $0.15 per common share to $0.17 per common share. Also on April 14, 2026, the Company announced the next quarterly dividend payment of $0.17 per share of Class A common stock to be paid on May 8, 2026 to stockholders of record as of the close of business on April 24, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.3 to this Curr…
Regulation FD Disclosure. On April 14, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing that it reached a settlement framework to resolve substantially all of the opioid-related claims that have been or may be asserted against the Company by participating states, political subdivisions and Native American tribes (the "Opioid Settlement Framework"). The Opioid Settlement Framework does not constitute an admission of wrongdoing or liability and the Company will continue to vigorously defend…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Effective February 25, 2026, Mr. Brian Rice was appointed as a member of the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Albertsons Companies, Inc. (the “Company”) for the term expiring at the Company’s 2026 annual meeting of stockholders or until his successor is duly elected and qualified. In connection with Mr. Rice’s appointment, the Board will expand…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On February 2, 2026, Albertsons Companies, Inc. (the “Company”), together with its subsidiaries, Safeway Inc., New Albertsons L.P., Albertsons’s LLC and Albertsons Safeway LLC (collectively, the “Subsidiary Co-Issuers” and together with the Company, the “Co-Issuers”), issued $1,200 million in aggregate principal amount of new 5.625% senior notes due 2032 (the “2032 Notes”) and $900 million in aggregate principal amount of additional 5.750% senior no…