Grocery Outlet (GO)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesGrocery StoresSnapshot 2026-10-29
$12.93+0.39%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesGrocery StoresSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put GO beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Consumer Staples is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
View ThesisManagement screens weak on capital allocation, margins, market reaction to earnings.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 22% growth a year, above the roughly 4% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 60% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskGrocery Outlet’s bet rests on sustaining revenue growth through fiscal 2026 guidance, despite weakening revenue momentum. Revenue growth slowed from 3.6% to 1.1% year over year. Q2 FY2026 non-GAAP earnings beat consensus, and revenue guidance was raised. GO trades at 21× P/E versus a 16× peer median. That premium contrasts with market pricing that assumes more growth than our forecast. The specific risk is management running behind on a stated commitment. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 16%. Peer multiples imply a price about 22% below where it trades; the thesis is on watch. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. GO is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 14 analysts currently covering GO (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 5 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for GO in the last 4 months.
Continue this research
Compare GO with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
Compare now without an account. Saving and monitoring require an account.
| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GO Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Food Retail — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put GO next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Threatens: Implement Optimization Plan to improve profitability and cash flow
Store closures may hinder profitability and cash flow improvement.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $12.93
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $12.93.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Advances: Maintain revenue guidance of $4.60 - $4.72 billion for fiscal 2026
Raises revenue guidance, supporting growth objectives.
Advances: Maintain revenue guidance of $4.60 - $4.72 billion for fiscal 2026
New store supports revenue growth and guidance.
Legal risks could impact profitability and cash flow objectives.
Threatens: Implement Optimization Plan to improve profitability and cash flow
Store closures hinder profitability and cash flow optimization efforts.
Advances: Maintain revenue guidance of $4.60 - $4.72 billion for fiscal 2026
Earnings call highlights sequential improvement in revenue guidance.
Advances: Maintain revenue guidance of $4.60 - $4.72 billion for fiscal 2026
Guidance increase supports revenue growth objective.
Advances: Achieve adjusted EBITDA of $220 million to $235 million for fiscal 2026
EPS forecast supports adjusted EBITDA growth objective.
