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Grocery Outlet (GO)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesGrocery StoresSnapshot 2026-06-15
Watch· this month
$9.62+0.42%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly, indicating a lack of shareholder-friendly moves. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may challenge growth. Peer multiples imply a price about 31% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Consumer Staples
- Industry
- Grocery Stores
- Market cap
- $947.68M
- Employees
- 1,642
- IPO date
- 2019-05-13
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-04
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $9.62. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$14.00consensus
Range $11.69 – $19.38
vs price: -31% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$13.83consensus
Range $9.30 – $24.80
vs price: -30% below
Method agreement — · 4 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peershigh confidence
At $9.62 GO trades at 14× p/e, below its 17× p/e peer median. Our $14 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $8.00–$15. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
14.1x
peer 17.0x · own history 30.2x
Premium
0.8x peer
0.5x its own history
Growth the price needs
-31%
our forecast 6%
Our fair value
$13.89
range $11.69 – $19.32
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — value-trap risk12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 31% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=1144).
2nd pctl · Consumer Staples
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted -0.56x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
neutral3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=491).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearishEPS revised -18.5% / 30d, n=14for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.15 → $0.12 (-18.5% / 30d). 0 raised, 13 cut, 14 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer staples is in maturing, with decelerating (~3.0 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weak
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$213.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$496.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,897.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
highas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for Q2 comparable store sales performance
Why it matters: Comparable store sales show how well existing stores are doing. A decline signals ongoing challenges.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Comparable store sales decline worse than -2.0% in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Comparable store sales increase or decline less than -2.0% in Q2 2026.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for GO yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for changes in consumer spending trends post-FOMC meeting
- Watch for Consumer Staples revenue growth to speed up above 5%.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like KR, SFM, and ACI keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Staples sector momentum should keep lifting GO and other Consumer Staples names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If GO raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-06-09), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If GO beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a big beat of +30% on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If GO cuts guidance on the next call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-06-09), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like KR, SFM, and ACI start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Staples tailwind helping GO and other Consumer Staples names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-098d agoItem 5.02
Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer — Christopher M. Miller: Christopher M. Miller, the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, is departing the company.
Executive changenegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-4.1 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-15
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.