Reading GO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GO free→Reading GO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GO free→
NASDAQConsumer StaplesGrocery StoresSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly, indicating a lack of shareholder-friendly moves. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may challenge growth. Peer multiples imply a price about 31% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $9.62. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $9.62 GO trades at 14× p/e, below its 17× p/e peer median. Our $14 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $8.00–$15. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 31% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=1144).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.56x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=491).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.15 → $0.12 (-18.5% / 30d). 0 raised, 13 cut, 14 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$213.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$496.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,897.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Comparable store sales show how well existing stores are doing. A decline signals ongoing challenges.
Confirms:Comparable store sales decline worse than -2.0% in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Comparable store sales increase or decline less than -2.0% in Q2 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for GO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer — Christopher M. Miller: Christopher M. Miller, the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, is departing the company.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$8.00 – $15.00 (median $9.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-05-14
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Food Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
GO Grocery Outlet | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 31 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
KR Kroger | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
CASY Casey's | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 44 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CART Maplebear Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | full | elevated |
SFM Sprouts Farmers Market | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | fair | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Execute the Optimization Plan to close underperforming stores and improve profitability.
Continue to target net sales between $4.60 billion and $4.72 billion for fiscal 2026.
Target adjusted EBITDA between $220 million and $235 million for fiscal 2026.
Aim to sustain gross margins between 29.7% and 30.0% for fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: A rebound in revenue growth could signal a shift in the consumer staples sector. This may help Grocery Outlet's performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth is more than 5% year over year. This shows a positive trend.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth is under 5%. This means growth is still slow.
Why it matters: Doing the Optimization Plan well is important. It helps make more money and improves cash flow.
Confirms:Completion of the closure of the remaining 9 stores by the end of Q2 2026.
Disproves:Closure of the remaining stores is delayed beyond Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Gross margin affects how much money a company makes. If it drops below guidance, it shows problems with cost management.
Confirms:Gross margin falls below 29.7% in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Gross margin stays above 30.0% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Rising unemployment claims may hurt consumer spending. This could impact Grocery Outlet's sales.
Confirms:Claims go above 300,000. This suggests a possible slowdown in consumer spending.
Disproves:Claims fall below 250,000. This shows a stable job market and more spending.
Why it matters: Hitting the EBITDA target is important. It helps keep investor trust and growth plans.
Confirms:Q2 adjusted EBITDA was at least $220 million.
Disproves:Q2 adjusted EBITDA was less than $220 million.
Why it matters: New store openings are critical for growth. Fewer openings may signal a slowdown in expansion plans.
Confirms:New store openings exceed the guidance of 30-33 for 2026.
Disproves:New store openings fall below the guidance of 30 for 2026.
Why it matters: The new CFO's strategies will be critical for financial stability and growth.
Confirms one read:The new CFO shares a plan that improves financial results.
Confirms the other:The new CFO's plans cause more financial problems or delays.
of this current report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1 furnished herewith) shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 1, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Grocery Outlet Holding Corp., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), increased the size of the Board from ten to twelve directors, and appointed Frances L. Allen and Felicia D. Thornton as directors, effective April 1, 2026, each to serve a term effectively expiring at the Company’s 2026 an…
of this current report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1 furnished herewith) shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Costs Associated With Exit or Disposal Activities. To strengthen long-term profitability and cash flow generation, improve operational execution, optimize the Company's existing store footprint and align with the Company’s disciplined new store growth strategy, in the first quarter of fiscal 2026 the Company conducted a strategic, financial and operational analysis of its store fleet. Following that review, on March 2, 2026, the Company's Board of Directors adopted a business optimization pla…