Grocery Outlet (GO)

NASDAQConsumer StaplesGrocery StoresSnapshot 2026-10-23

$13.30-4.32%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Grocery Outlet’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.67 → 0.67 EPS · FY ending Jan 3, 2028 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	1.17B
EPS	—	0.148
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$4.7B–$4.72B	4.7B
EPS	$0.51–$0.55non-GAAP	0.547
Capital expenditure	$170M	—
Comparable store comparable sales growth	-0.5%–0%non-GAAP	—
EBITDA	$225M–$235Mnon-GAAP	—
Gross margin	29.8%–30%	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	4.92B
EPS	—	0.666

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBITDA between $220 million and $235 million in 2026	The company aims for adjusted EBITDA between $220 million and $235 million in 2026.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $220 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management reaffirmed adjusted EBITDA guidance for fiscal 2026 in the range of $220 million to $235 million, revising slightly to $225 million to $235 million in 2026-Q2. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $108.8 million in the first half of 2026, representing 4.6% of net sales. The trajectory shows progress but remains below full-year target at midyear, indicating mixed delivery. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Gross margin near 29.85% in fiscal 2026	Profit margin is expected near 29.85%.	Intact	Gross margin falls below 29.7% in FY26	Gross margin: 30.24% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 29.85%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 12, 202630.242194 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 4, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a9f97d3e-2e09-44a1-b8ba-304fba0cf238. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management reaffirmed adjusted EBITDA guidance for fiscal 2026 in the range of $220 million to $235 million, revising slightly to $225 million to $235 million in 2026-Q2. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $108.8 million in the first half of 2026, representing 4.6% of net sales. The trajectory shows progress but remains below full-year target at midyear, indicating mixed delivery. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain revenue near $4.66 billion in fiscal 2026	A primary condition in Grocery Outlet's published investment case. The stated target is ~$4.66B.	Intact	Revenue falls below $4.6 billion in FY26	Revenue: $1.193B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$4.66B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 12, 20261,192,764,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 4, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a9f97d3e-2e09-44a1-b8ba-304fba0cf238. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management reaffirmed fiscal 2026 net sales guidance around $4.60 to $4.72 billion, revising slightly to $4.70 to $4.72 billion in 2026-Q2. Revenue grew modestly in the first half of 2026 to $2.36 billion, a 2.3% increase year-over-year. The trajectory is consistent with management's guidance and delivering on revenue growth expectations. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Close 36 underperforming stores to improve profitability	Grocery Outlet plans to close 36 bad stores to cut losses.	Improving	Fails to close 36 stores or operating loss worsens	42 stores closed vs 36 target News confirms 42 store closures and raised fiscal 2026 revenue guidance to $4.60-$4.72 billion. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The Optimization Plan was adopted in 2026-Q1 and completed store closures by 2026-Q2, closing 36 underperforming stores. Operating income improved from a loss of $178.0 million in 2026-Q1 to a positive $15.8 million in 2026-Q2 despite $5.4 million restructuring charges. Management estimates $15 million to $24 million in restructuring charges over fiscal 2026 and 2027. The trajectory shows delivering progress on executing the plan and improving profitability. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-03 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$0.67

$0.63 → $0.67 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$4.92B

$4.87B → $4.92B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.63	$4,872,038,849	9 / 11
2026-07-25	$0.63	$4,872,038,849	9 / 11
2026-07-26	$0.63	$4,872,038,849	9 / 11
2026-07-27	$0.63	$4,872,038,849	9 / 11
2026-07-28	$0.63	$4,872,038,849	9 / 11
2026-07-29	$0.63	$4,872,038,849	9 / 11
2026-07-30	$0.63	$4,872,038,849	9 / 11
2026-07-31	$0.63	$4,871,395,123	8 / 11
2026-08-01	$0.63	$4,871,395,123	8 / 11
2026-08-02	$0.63	$4,871,395,123	8 / 11
2026-08-03	$0.63	$4,871,395,123	8 / 11
2026-08-04	$0.63	$4,871,395,123	8 / 11
2026-08-05	$0.63	$4,871,395,123	8 / 11
2026-08-06	$0.63	$4,871,395,123	8 / 11
2026-08-07	$0.63	$4,871,395,123	8 / 11
2026-08-08	$0.63	$4,871,395,123	8 / 11
2026-08-09	$0.63	$4,871,395,123	8 / 11
2026-08-10	$0.63	$4,871,395,123	8 / 11
2026-08-12	$0.63	$4,871,395,123	8 / 11
2026-08-13	$0.63	$4,871,395,123	8 / 11
2026-08-14	$0.63	$4,871,395,123	8 / 11
2026-08-15	$0.63	$4,871,395,123	8 / 11
2026-08-16	$0.63	$4,871,395,123	8 / 11
2026-08-17	$0.63	$4,871,395,123	8 / 11
2026-08-18	$0.63	$4,871,395,123	8 / 11
2026-08-19	$0.63	$4,871,395,123	8 / 11
2026-08-20	$0.67	$4,912,142,401	8 / 11
2026-08-21	$0.67	$4,912,142,401	8 / 11
2026-08-22	$0.67	$4,912,142,401	8 / 11
2026-08-23	$0.67	$4,912,142,401	8 / 11
2026-08-24	$0.67	$4,912,142,401	8 / 11
2026-08-25	$0.67	$4,912,142,401	8 / 11
2026-08-26	$0.67	$4,912,142,401	8 / 11
2026-08-27	$0.67	$4,912,142,401	8 / 11
2026-08-28	$0.67	$4,912,142,401	8 / 11
2026-08-29	$0.67	$4,912,142,401	8 / 11
2026-08-30	$0.67	$4,912,142,401	8 / 11
2026-08-31	$0.67	$4,912,142,401	8 / 11
2026-09-01	$0.67	$4,912,142,401	8 / 11
2026-09-02	$0.67	$4,912,142,401	8 / 11
2026-09-03	$0.67	$4,912,142,401	8 / 11
2026-09-04	$0.67	$4,912,142,401	8 / 11
2026-09-05	$0.67	$4,912,142,401	8 / 11
2026-09-06	$0.67	$4,912,142,401	8 / 11
2026-09-07	$0.67	$4,912,142,401	8 / 11
2026-09-08	$0.67	$4,912,142,401	8 / 11
2026-09-09	$0.67	$4,912,142,401	8 / 11
2026-09-10	$0.67	$4,912,142,401	8 / 11
2026-09-11	$0.67	$4,912,142,401	8 / 11
2026-09-12	$0.67	$4,912,142,401	8 / 11
2026-09-13	$0.67	$4,912,142,401	8 / 11
2026-09-14	$0.67	$4,912,142,401	8 / 11
2026-09-15	$0.67	$4,912,142,401	8 / 11
2026-09-16	$0.67	$4,912,142,401	8 / 11
2026-09-17	$0.67	$4,912,142,401	8 / 11
2026-09-18	$0.67	$4,912,142,401	8 / 11
2026-09-19	$0.67	$4,912,142,401	8 / 11
2026-09-20	$0.67	$4,912,142,401	8 / 11
2026-09-21	$0.67	$4,912,142,401	8 / 11
2026-09-22	$0.67	$4,912,142,401	8 / 11
2026-09-23	$0.67	$4,912,142,401	8 / 11
2026-09-24	$0.67	$4,912,142,401	8 / 11
2026-09-25	$0.67	$4,912,142,401	8 / 11
2026-09-26	$0.67	$4,912,142,401	8 / 11
2026-09-27	$0.67	$4,912,142,401	8 / 11
2026-09-28	$0.67	$4,912,142,401	8 / 11
2026-09-29	$0.67	$4,912,142,401	8 / 11
2026-09-30	$0.67	$4,912,142,401	8 / 11
2026-10-01	$0.67	$4,912,142,401	8 / 11
2026-10-02	$0.67	$4,912,142,401	8 / 11
2026-10-03	$0.67	$4,917,724,001	8 / 11
2026-10-04	$0.67	$4,917,724,001	8 / 11
2026-10-05	$0.67	$4,917,724,001	8 / 11
2026-10-06	$0.67	$4,917,724,001	8 / 11
2026-10-07	$0.67	$4,917,724,001	8 / 11
2026-10-08	$0.67	$4,917,724,001	8 / 11
2026-10-09	$0.67	$4,917,724,001	8 / 11
2026-10-10	$0.67	$4,917,724,001	8 / 11
2026-10-11	$0.67	$4,917,724,001	8 / 11
2026-10-12	$0.67	$4,917,724,001	8 / 11
2026-10-13	$0.67	$4,917,724,001	8 / 11
2026-10-14	$0.67	$4,917,724,001	8 / 11
2026-10-15	$0.67	$4,917,724,001	8 / 11
2026-10-16	$0.67	$4,917,724,001	8 / 11
2026-10-17	$0.67	$4,917,724,001	8 / 11
2026-10-18	$0.67	$4,917,724,001	8 / 11
2026-10-19	$0.67	$4,917,724,001	8 / 11
2026-10-20	$0.67	$4,917,724,001	8 / 11
2026-10-21	$0.67	$4,917,724,001	8 / 11
2026-10-22	$0.67	$4,917,724,001	8 / 11
2026-10-23	$0.67	$4,917,724,001	8 / 11
2026-10-24	$0.67	$4,920,875,734	8 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	0	13	1
2026-06-01	0	13	1
2026-07-01	0	13	1
2026-08-01	0	13	1
2026-09-01	1	13	1
2026-10-01	1	12	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDA between $220 million and $235 million in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Gross margin near 29.85% in fiscal 2026Gross margin: 30.24%
Maintain revenue near $4.66 billion in fiscal 2026Revenue: $1.193B

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-62.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Grocery Outlet outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a turnaround thesis, not yet a proven durable compounder. The thesis state is watch, with medium confidence: management has made progress on its Optimization Plan, but overall financial performance remains weak and risk is elevated.

What's priced into Grocery Outlet

GO is valued at a premium to peers, and the valuation is tagged as stretched. The evidence points to a meaningful expectations gap, while the low fragility reading means no specific fragility warning is active.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue guidance is on track, but adjusted EBITDA delivery is mixed and the business remains loss-making overall. Store closures helped operating income move from a loss in the first quarter to a small profit in the second, though restructuring charges remain; weakening earnings surprises and the next guidance update are risks.

What Grocery Outlet hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on the Optimization Plan translating into sustained profitability and cash flow while GO meets its fiscal 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA goals. A guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data would add pressure, while stronger results and guidance from grocery-sector peers could support sector momentum.