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Village Super Market, Inc. (VLGEA)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesGrocery StoresSnapshot 2026-06-15
Intact
$40.83-1.83%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with performance compared to sector peers being typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 35% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Consumer Staples
- Industry
- Grocery Stores
- Market cap
- $615.93M
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1994-06-06
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $40.83. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$62.63consensus
Range $62.08 – $63.19
vs price: -35% below
Method agreement — · 2 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-year—
—consensus
Range — – —
vs price: —
Method agreement —
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-year—
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
high confidence
We can't anchor a clean multiple for VLGEA right now, so treat our $63 fair value as low-confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (multiple)
—
peer — · own history —
Premium
—
Growth the price needs
-35%
our forecast 4%
Our fair value
$62.63
range $62.08 – $63.19
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — quality intact12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 35% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=1526).
52nd pctl · Consumer Staples
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.84x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1382).
59th pctl · Consumer Staples
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
stable3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated stable grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=379).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer staples is in maturing, with decelerating (~3.0 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Mature by revenue growth · theme private-label/value.headwind-9.8%sector vs S&P 500, 60d
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
AI cycle regime · market-wide
2-axis classifierLong-term · 1–3 yr
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strongProvisional
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-15
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$140.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$242.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,111.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Short-term · Daily
- Either wayMedium confidenceWeeksactive 4d
Watch for the FOMC Decision on June 17, 2026
Why it matters: The FOMC's decisions affect interest rates. Changes can impact consumer spending and sales.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:The FOMC raises interest rates. This shows the economy is strong.
Confirms the other:The FOMC cuts interest rates. This shows the economy is weak.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for VLGEA yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for changes in consumer spending trends post-FOMC meeting
- Watch for Consumer Staples revenue growth to speed up above 5%.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like KR, SFM, and ACI keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Staples sector momentum should keep lifting VLGEA and other Consumer Staples names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If VLGEA beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a very large beat off a near-zero prior-year base on the 2015-01-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
- If inflation reaccelerates, say headline CPI back above 3.5% (currently 2.8%), that would benefit VLGEA and other Consumer Staples names (the sector typically holds up well in inflationary environments).
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for VLGEA and other Consumer Staples names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like KR, SFM, and ACI start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Staples tailwind helping VLGEA and other Consumer Staples names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-03-252mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events As previously disclosed, Village Super Market, Inc. (the "Company") is currently engaged in ongoing litigation with Wakefern Food Corp. ("Wakefern"). The matter is captioned Village Super Market, Inc., et al. v. Wakefern Food Corp., et al. and is pending before the Superior Court of New Jersey, Law Division, Middlesex County (the "Law Division"). In response to the Company's Second Amended Complaint and Jury Demand filed with the Law Division (the "Second Amended Complaint") seek…
Legal / regulatorynegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+2.4 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.