Reading UNFI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track UNFI free→Reading UNFI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track UNFI free→NYSEConsumer StaplesFood DistributionSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been steady. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact performance compared to sector peers, where it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 12% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $50.31. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $50 the market pays 27× p/e — above the 17× p/e peer median but in line with its own 27× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $57 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts: $43–$56. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 11% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about -4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=1526).
Over the trailing year it converted -13.24x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated stable grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=379).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.59 → $0.77 (+30.3% / 30d). 10 raised, 0 cut, 10 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 30% of analysts rate Buy.
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 1.2% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$176.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$349.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,700.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide key insights into performance and future guidance.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows better profit margins and more revenue than expected.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows lower profit margins and less revenue than expected.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Increase profitability metrics and free cash flow
Profitability improvement aligns with growth objectives.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On June 9, 2026, United Natural Foods, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), issued a press release to report its financial results for the third fiscal quarter ended May 2, 2026. The press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto. The Company will also make available an investor presentation and supplemental materials on the Investors section of the Company’s website. The information contained in the Current Report on Form 8-K, includ…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$43.00 – $56.00 (median $47.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-06-10
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Food Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
UNFI United Natural Foods Inc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | fair | moderate |
KR Kroger | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
CASY Casey's | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 44 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CART Maplebear Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | full | elevated |
SFM Sprouts Farmers Market | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | fair | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on network optimization and disciplined cost management to improve efficiency and reduce operating expenses.
Aim to increase all profitability metrics and raise free cash flow while managing net sales.
Continue implementing next-generation supply chain technologies to improve fill rates and on-time deliveries.
Why it matters: A larger drop would show worse sales trends. This would hurt profit numbers.
Confirms:Q3 net sales decline worse than -4.2% year over year.
Disproves:Q3 net sales decline less than -4.2% year over year.
Why it matters: Faster revenue growth would show a good change in the maturing sector.
Confirms:Q3 revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Disproves:Q3 revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Lower net debt would make finances more stable and improve leverage.
Confirms:Net debt decreases below $1.63 billion in Q3.
Disproves:Net debt increases above $1.63 billion in Q3.
Why it matters: CPI data affects how much people spend and the inflation outlook. This impacts UNFI's sales.
Confirms one read:CPI shows lower inflation than expected. This helps boost consumer confidence.
Confirms the other:CPI shows higher inflation than expected. This hurts consumer spending.
Why it matters: Unemployment claims can impact consumer spending. A rise may hurt UNFI's sales.
Confirms:Weekly claims show a decrease, indicating a stronger job market.
Disproves:Weekly claims show an increase, indicating a weaker job market.
Why it matters: Better margins would show good cost control and efficient operations.
Confirms:EBITDA margin rises above 2.4% in Q3.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA margin falls below 2.4% in Q3.
Why it matters: Lower free cash flow would show problems in making cash and being flexible.
Confirms:Free cash flow in Q3 drops below $54 million.
Disproves:Free cash flow in Q3 stays above $54 million.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Effective April 1, 2026, United Natural Foods, Inc. (the “Company”), SUPERVALU INC., UNFI Wholesale, Inc., and UNFI Distribution Company, LLC (collectively, the “U.S. Borrowers”) and UNFI Canada, Inc. (the “Canadian Borrower” and, together with the U.S. Borrowers, the “Borrowers”), entered into an amended and restated loan agreement (the “Amended and Restated ABL Loan Agreement”), by and among the Borrowers, the financial institutions that are parti…
SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized. UNITED NATURAL FOODS, INC. By: /s/ GIORGIO MATTEO TARDITI Name: Giorgio Matteo Tarditi Title: President and Chief Financial Officer Date: April 2, 2026
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 10, 2026, United Natural Foods, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), issued a press release to report its financial results for the second fiscal quarter ended January 31, 2026. The press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto. The Company will also make available an investor presentation and supplemental materials on the Investors section of the Company’s website. The information contained in the Current Report on Form 8-K…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On September 30, 2025, United Natural Foods, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), issued a press release to report its financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended August 2, 2025. The press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto. The Company will also make available an investor presentation on the Investors section of the Company’s website. The information contained in the Current Report on Form 8-K, including the…