Reading NGVC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NGVC free→Reading NGVC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NGVC free→NYSEConsumer StaplesGrocery StoresSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, while management's recent track record has been steady. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is elevated, with the sector backdrop presenting a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 20% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact NGVC's performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $30.56. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $31 NGVC trades at 15× p/e, below its 17× p/e peer median. Our $38 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 20% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated strong grew net income 66% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=1144).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.30x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1382).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated stable grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=379).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.49 → $0.52 (+5.1% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$136.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$424.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,569.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results show how sales are growing and if the company is making money. This helps us understand how it might do in the future.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth above 4% year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue growth below 2% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NGVC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three and six months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The information contained in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as ame…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Food Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NGVC Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | fair | elevated |
KR Kroger | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
CASY Casey's | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 44 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CART Maplebear Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | elevated |
SFM Sprouts Farmers Market | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | fair | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Accelerate store growth by opening 6 to 8 new stores in fiscal 2026.
Maintain capital expenditures guidance between $45 million and $50 million for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Retail sales data impacts consumer spending trends, which are vital for Natural Grocers' performance. Strong data could boost confidence.
Confirms one read:Retail sales growth exceeds 1% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales growth is negative or below 0.5% month over month.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 5, 2026, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The information contained in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as ame…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 20, 2025, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months and fiscal year ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The information contained in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Secur…
Other Events. On November 20, 2025, the Company announced that its Board of Directors has declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.15 per common share, increasing its quarterly cash dividend by 25%. The quarterly cash dividend will be paid on December 10, 2025 to stockholders of record as of the close of business on December 1, 2025.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On October 23, 2025, the Compensation Committee of the Board of Directors of Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (the “Company”) approved the following compensatory arrangements: (i) a cash bonus award of $365,000 to Heather Isely, the Company’s Executive Vice President and Corporate Secretary; (ii) a cash bonus award of $365,000 to Elizabeth…