Reading DNUT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DNUT free→Reading DNUT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DNUT free→NASDAQConsumer StaplesGrocery StoresSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with DNUT trading below typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 13% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If DNUT cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $3.85. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $3.99 DNUT trades at 0× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $4.68 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 15% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=1144).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.15x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
10 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=491).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.01 → $-0.02 (-191.4% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 29% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$185.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$623.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,787.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The retail sales report on June 17 will show if consumers are spending more or less. This affects Krispy Kreme's sales.
Confirms one read:The retail sales report shows a big rise in consumer spending. This boosts demand for Krispy Kreme products.
Confirms the other:The retail sales report shows a big drop in consumer spending. This hurts demand for Krispy Kreme products.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for DNUT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing the Company's financial results for the first quarter ended March 29, 2026. A copy of such press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or incorporat…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Food Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
DNUT Krispy Kreme, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 16 of 100 | fair | elevated |
KR Kroger | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 57 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
CASY Casey's | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CART Maplebear Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | full | elevated |
SFM Sprouts Farmers Market | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | fair | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Krispy Kreme aims to achieve net revenue between $1.25 billion and $1.35 billion for the fiscal year 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Revenue was $367.034 million in 2026-Q1. The company has set a target for net revenue between $1.25 billion and $1.35 billion for 2026. With the current quarter's revenue, achieving the full-year target will require consistent growth in subsequent quarters.
“For the full year, we are issuing guidance for net revenue of $1.25 billion to $1.35 billion.”
Krispy Kreme plans to maintain capital expenditures between $50 million and $60 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company has consistently guided for capital expenditures between $50 million and $60 million for 2026. This indicates a focus on maintaining disciplined capital allocation, though specific quarterly capex figures are not provided.
“Capital expenditures of $50 million to $60 million.”
Krispy Kreme aims to achieve free cash flow of more than $15 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company has set a target for free cash flow of more than $15 million for 2026. With cash from operating activities at $20.166 million in 2026-Q1, the company appears to be on track to meet or exceed this target, indicating positive cash flow management.
“Free cash flow of more than $15 million (updated).”
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Election of Directors On April 1, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “ Board ”) of Krispy Kreme, Inc. (the “ Company ”) elected each of David Shear and Melissa Werneck as a director of the Company, effective April 2, 2026, to serve for a term expiring at the annual meeting of stockholders of the Company in 2026 and until his or her successor has bee…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On January 29, 2026, the Company received notice from Theresa Zandhuis, Chief People Officer, of her decision to retire from all positions with the Company and its subsidiaries, effective on or around March 31, 2026. The Company wishes Ms. Zandhuis well in her retirement and thanks her for laying the groundwork for a thoughtful and orderly internal…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 23, 2026 (the “Effective Date”), Krispy Kreme, Inc. (the “Company”), through its wholly owned subsidiaries, Awesome Doughnut, LLC (“Awesome Doughnut”) and Krispy Kreme Doughnut Corporation (“KKDC”), completed transactions with its joint venture partner, WKS Restaurant Group (“WKS”), as a result of which: (i) WKS’s indirect ownership stake in the Company’s Western U.S. joint venture, W.K.S. Krispy Kreme, LLC (the “JV”), increased from 45% to…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 26, 2026, Krispy Kreme, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing the Company's financial results for the quarter and fiscal year ended December 28, 2025. A copy of such press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securi…
“Capital expenditures of $50 million to $60 million.”