Krispy Kreme, Inc. (DNUT)

NASDAQConsumer StaplesGrocery StoresSnapshot 2026-10-23

$2.82-4.41%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Krispy Kreme, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	340.13M
EPS	—	0.057
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$1.25B–$1.35B	1.33B
EPS	—	-0.007
Capital expenditure	$50M–$60M	—
EBITDA	$140M–$150Mnon-GAAP	—
Free cash flow	Over $15M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.34B
EPS	—	0.082

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain capital expenditures between $50M and $60M in FY26	A supporting condition in Krispy Kreme, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 50-60 USD_MILLIONS.	Intact	Capital expenditures exceed $60M or fall below $50M in FY26	Capital expenditures: $7.313M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 50-60 USD_MILLIONS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20267,313,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 28, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Capital expenditures were $16.1 million in first half 2026, down 70% from $54.1 million in first half 2025. The Company maintains 2026 guidance of $50M to $60M capex, reflecting disciplined spending and delivery consistent with stated priorities. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Generate free cash flow above $15M in FY26	Free cash flow target is above $15M.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $15M in FY26	Free cash flow: $-17.518M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >15 USD_MILLIONS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026-17,518,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 28, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Year-to-date free cash flow was negative $6.1 million in first half 2026, improving $101.3 million versus first half 2025. The Company maintains guidance for free cash flow exceeding $15 million in 2026, showing progress but not yet fully delivering the target. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Successful restructuring and new product launches	A supporting condition in Krispy Kreme, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Sustain positive progress on restructuring and product innovation.	Improving	Restructuring fails or new products do not improve revenue	EBITDA +43% vs revenue target $1.25B-$1.35B Q2 EBITDA up 43%, 33 new stores planned, but revenue target at risk and Irish arm posted €3m loss. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve revenue between $1.25B and $1.35B in FY26	A primary condition in Krispy Kreme, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=1.25 USD_BILLIONS.	Intact	Revenue falls below $1.25B in FY26	Revenue: $330.995M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=1.25 USD_BILLIONS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026330,995,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 28, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2e0c603d-7963-4327-81d7-c5da8c81eecb. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-28 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue$1.34B

Unavailable → $1.34B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$1,344,540,208	3 / 5
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$1,344,540,208	3 / 5
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$1,344,540,208	3 / 5
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$1,344,540,208	3 / 5
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$1,344,540,208	3 / 5
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$1,344,540,208	4 / 5
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$1,344,540,208	4 / 5
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$1,344,540,208	4 / 5
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$1,344,540,208	4 / 5
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$1,344,540,208	4 / 5
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$1,344,540,208	4 / 5
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$1,344,540,208	4 / 5
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$1,344,540,208	4 / 5
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$1,344,540,208	4 / 5
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$1,344,540,208	4 / 5
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$1,344,540,208	4 / 5
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$1,344,540,208	4 / 5
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$1,344,540,208	4 / 5
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$1,344,540,208	4 / 5
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$1,344,540,208	4 / 5
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$1,344,540,208	4 / 5
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$1,344,540,208	4 / 5
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$1,340,340,208	4 / 5
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$1,340,340,208	4 / 5
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$1,340,340,208	4 / 5
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$1,340,340,208	4 / 5
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$1,340,340,208	4 / 5
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$1,340,340,208	4 / 5
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$1,340,340,208	4 / 5
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$1,340,340,208	4 / 5
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$1,340,340,208	4 / 5
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$1,340,340,208	4 / 5
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$1,340,340,208	4 / 5
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$1,340,340,208	4 / 5
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$1,340,340,208	4 / 5
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$1,340,340,208	4 / 5
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$1,340,340,208	4 / 5
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$1,340,340,208	4 / 5
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$1,340,340,208	4 / 5
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$1,340,340,208	4 / 5
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$1,340,340,208	4 / 5
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$1,340,340,208	4 / 5
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$1,340,340,208	4 / 5
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$1,340,340,208	4 / 5
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$1,340,340,208	4 / 5
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$1,340,340,208	4 / 5
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$1,342,447,899	4 / 5
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$1,342,447,899	4 / 5
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$1,342,447,899	4 / 5
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$1,342,447,899	4 / 5
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$1,342,447,899	4 / 5
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$1,342,447,899	4 / 5
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$1,342,447,899	4 / 5
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$1,342,447,899	4 / 5
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$1,342,447,899	4 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	2	3	2
2026-06-01	2	3	2
2026-07-01	2	3	2
2026-08-01	2	3	2
2026-09-01	2	3	2
2026-10-01	2	3	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain capital expenditures between $50M and $60M in FY26Capital expenditures: $7.313M
Generate free cash flow above $15M in FY26Free cash flow: $-17.518M
Achieve revenue between $1.25B and $1.35B in FY26Revenue: $330.995M

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-40.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Krispy Kreme, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a higher-risk business with a potential improvement case, not a proven steady compounder. The long-term thesis is under watch: company quality improved, but momentum weakened and recent results remain below the industry cohort.

What's priced into Krispy Kreme, Inc.

The evidence describes DNUT as cheap versus peers, while also showing a 45% peer premium and a negative expectations gap. The pricing signal is uncertain because model confidence is low, and the snapshot does not show that the valuation is fragile.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue has declined with refranchising and door closures, and the company has reported two recent earnings misses. Management still guides to its 2026 revenue and spending goals; first-half free cash flow improved sharply year over year but remained negative. Loss-making results and elevated risk make execution important.

What Krispy Kreme, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year case depends on delivering the 2026 revenue and free cash flow goals while keeping capital spending within guidance. A guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data would add pressure, while continued strength from sector peers could support the business backdrop.