Reading WMK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track WMK free→Reading WMK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track WMK free→NYSEConsumer StaplesGrocery StoresSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, though the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with performance compared to sector peers being typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 16% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $79.19. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $83 WMK trades at 21× p/e, in line with its 17× p/e peer median. Our $70 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 16% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated strong grew net income 66% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=1144).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.28x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=1037).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$130.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$242.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,019.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This report shows retail sales trends. Strong sales may support Weis Markets' revenue growth.
Confirms:Retail sales growth reported above 0.5% month over month.
Disproves:Retail sales growth reported below -0.5% month over month.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for WMK yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, the Company released its earnings for the first quarter ended March 28, 2026. A copy of the news release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by this reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Food Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
WMK Weis Markets, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | full | moderate |
KR Kroger | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
CASY Casey's | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 44 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CART Maplebear Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | full | elevated |
SFM Sprouts Farmers Market | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | fair | elevated |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated stable grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=379).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
Why it matters: Interest rate changes can impact consumer spending. A rate hike may slow sales for Weis Markets.
Confirms:FOMC raises rates by more than 25 basis points.
Disproves:FOMC keeps rates unchanged or lowers them.
Why it matters: Employment data affects consumer confidence and spending. Strong job growth may boost Weis Markets' sales.
Confirms:Non-farm payroll growth reported above 250,000 jobs.
Disproves:Non-farm payroll growth reported below 100,000 jobs.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 12, 2026, the Company released its earnings for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended December 27, 2025. A copy of the news release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by this reference.
of its Current Report on Form 8-K dated February 20, 2026. The Company continues to work diligently to complete the remaining review and restatement procedures. The Company expects to file its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the 52-week fiscal year ended December 27, 2025, including all required restated financial statements, no later than March 12, 2026; however, the timing of the filing may be subject to further delay, and the Company cannot provide assurance regarding the definitive filing…
Non-Reliance on Previously Issued Financial Statements or a Related Audit Report or Completed Interim Review. On February 19, 2026, the Audit Committee of the Board of Directors of Weis Markets, Inc. (the “Company”), in consultation with Company management and the Company’s independent registered public accounting firm, RSM US LLP (“RSM”), concluded that the Company’s previously issued audited consolidated financial statements as of December 28, 2024 and December 30, 2023 and for the years…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Jonathan H. Weis Employment Agreement On February 5, 2026, effective January 1, 2026, Weis Markets, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an employment agreement (the “Employment Agreement”) with Jonathan H. Weis, who serves as Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer. The Employment Agreement will commence on January 1, 2026 and will continue t…