Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM)

NASDAQConsumer StaplesGrocery StoresSnapshot 2026-10-23

$66.26-3.78%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Sprouts Farmers Market’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.6%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

5.97 → 5.93 EPS · FY ending Dec 28, 2027 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Comparable store comparable sales growth	1.5%non-GAAP	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	2.49B
EPS	$1.2–$1.24	1.224
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	9.47B
EPS	$5.32–$5.4	5.538
Comparable store comparable sales growth	0.5%non-GAAP	—
Revenue growth	5.5%–6.5%	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	10.19B
EPS	—	5.935

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Improved customer engagement initiatives	Customer engagement improves with new initiatives against rivals.	Intact	No progress or reversal in engagement efforts over next 4 quarters	Qualitative: HQ doubled, new CT/SF stores, CEO succession HQ size nearly doubled; new stores in Connecticut and SF SoMa; orderly CEO transition. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew 4% from $2.236B in 2026-Q1 to $2.326B in 2026-Q2, reflecting a 5% increase year-over-year in Q2. Management emphasizes customer engagement as key to reaccelerating growth, and the revenue trajectory is delivering modest growth consistent with this focus. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
EPS around $5.40 in 2026	Earnings per share reach about $5.40 in 2026.	Broken	EPS falls below $5.00 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $1.37 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS between $5.32 and $5.48. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 20261.37 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 28, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 6058b07c-d6fa-4020-8c66-8bb063174706. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Annual revenue growth of about 10%	A primary condition in Sprouts Farmers Market's published investment case. The stated target is >=9.7% YoY revenue growth.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 7% in FY26	Revenue growth: 4.74% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=9.7% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 20264.737544 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 28, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 6058b07c-d6fa-4020-8c66-8bb063174706. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company opened 6 new stores in 2026-Q1 and 7 new stores in 2026-Q2, increasing total stores from 483 to 490. This expansion supports management's stated goal of expanding access to healthy food. The trajectory shows steady progress in store growth aligned with this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Store count reaches at least 483 by Q1 2026	A supporting condition in Sprouts Farmers Market's published investment case. The stated target is >=483 stores.	Intact	Store count falls below 480 by mid-2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company opened 6 new stores in 2026-Q1 and 7 new stores in 2026-Q2, increasing total stores from 483 to 490. This expansion supports management's stated goal of expanding access to healthy food. The trajectory shows steady progress in store growth aligned with this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-28 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$5.93

$5.92 → $5.93 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$10.19B

$10.21B → $10.19B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$5.92	$10,212,019,095	9 / 10
2026-07-25	$5.92	$10,212,019,095	9 / 10
2026-07-26	$5.92	$10,202,549,603	9 / 10
2026-07-27	$5.92	$10,202,549,603	9 / 10
2026-07-28	$5.92	$10,202,549,603	9 / 10
2026-07-29	$5.91	$10,182,049,835	9 / 10
2026-07-30	$5.92	$10,202,026,980	9 / 10
2026-07-31	$5.95	$10,223,379,848	7 / 10
2026-08-01	$5.95	$10,223,379,848	7 / 10
2026-08-02	$5.95	$10,223,379,848	7 / 10
2026-08-03	$5.95	$10,223,379,848	7 / 10
2026-08-04	$5.95	$10,223,379,848	7 / 10
2026-08-05	$5.95	$10,223,379,848	7 / 10
2026-08-06	$5.95	$10,223,379,848	7 / 10
2026-08-08	$5.95	$10,223,379,848	7 / 10
2026-08-09	$5.95	$10,223,379,848	7 / 10
2026-08-10	$5.95	$10,223,379,848	7 / 10
2026-08-12	$5.95	$10,223,379,848	7 / 10
2026-08-13	$5.95	$10,223,379,848	7 / 10
2026-08-14	$5.95	$10,223,379,848	7 / 10
2026-08-15	$5.95	$10,223,379,848	7 / 10
2026-08-16	$5.95	$10,223,379,848	8 / 9
2026-08-17	$5.95	$10,223,379,848	8 / 9
2026-08-18	$5.95	$10,223,379,848	8 / 9
2026-08-19	$5.95	$10,223,379,848	8 / 9
2026-08-20	$5.97	$10,215,926,581	8 / 9
2026-08-21	$5.97	$10,215,926,581	9 / 10
2026-08-22	$5.97	$10,215,926,581	9 / 10
2026-08-23	$5.97	$10,215,926,581	9 / 10
2026-08-24	$5.97	$10,215,926,581	9 / 10
2026-08-25	$5.97	$10,215,926,581	9 / 10
2026-08-26	$5.97	$10,215,926,581	9 / 10
2026-08-27	$5.97	$10,215,926,581	9 / 10
2026-08-28	$5.97	$10,215,926,581	9 / 10
2026-08-29	$5.97	$10,215,926,581	9 / 10
2026-08-30	$5.97	$10,215,926,581	9 / 10
2026-08-31	$5.97	$10,215,926,581	9 / 10
2026-09-01	$5.97	$10,215,926,581	9 / 10
2026-09-02	$5.97	$10,215,926,581	9 / 10
2026-09-03	$5.97	$10,215,926,581	9 / 10
2026-09-04	$5.97	$10,215,926,581	9 / 10
2026-09-05	$5.97	$10,215,926,581	9 / 10
2026-09-06	$5.97	$10,215,926,581	9 / 10
2026-09-07	$5.97	$10,215,926,581	9 / 10
2026-09-08	$5.97	$10,215,926,581	9 / 10
2026-09-09	$5.97	$10,215,926,581	9 / 10
2026-09-10	$5.97	$10,215,926,581	9 / 10
2026-09-11	$5.97	$10,215,926,581	9 / 10
2026-09-12	$5.97	$10,215,926,581	9 / 10
2026-09-13	$5.97	$10,215,926,581	9 / 10
2026-09-14	$5.97	$10,215,926,581	9 / 10
2026-09-15	$5.97	$10,215,926,581	9 / 10
2026-09-16	$5.97	$10,215,926,581	9 / 10
2026-09-17	$5.97	$10,215,926,581	9 / 10
2026-09-18	$5.97	$10,215,926,581	9 / 10
2026-09-19	$5.97	$10,215,926,581	9 / 10
2026-09-20	$5.97	$10,215,926,581	9 / 10
2026-09-21	$5.97	$10,215,926,581	9 / 10
2026-09-22	$5.97	$10,215,926,581	9 / 10
2026-09-23	$5.97	$10,215,926,581	9 / 10
2026-09-24	$5.97	$10,215,946,272	9 / 10
2026-09-25	$5.97	$10,215,939,605	9 / 10
2026-09-26	$5.97	$10,213,439,605	9 / 10
2026-09-27	$5.97	$10,213,439,605	9 / 10
2026-09-28	$5.97	$10,213,439,605	9 / 10
2026-09-29	$5.97	$10,213,442,272	9 / 10
2026-09-30	$5.97	$10,213,442,272	9 / 10
2026-10-01	$5.97	$10,213,442,272	9 / 10
2026-10-02	$5.97	$10,213,428,939	9 / 10
2026-10-03	$5.97	$10,213,428,939	9 / 10
2026-10-04	$5.97	$10,213,428,939	9 / 10
2026-10-05	$5.97	$10,213,428,939	9 / 10
2026-10-06	$5.97	$10,213,428,939	9 / 10
2026-10-07	$5.97	$10,213,428,939	9 / 10
2026-10-08	$5.97	$10,210,762,272	9 / 10
2026-10-09	$5.97	$10,210,762,272	9 / 10
2026-10-10	$5.97	$10,210,762,272	9 / 10
2026-10-11	$5.97	$10,210,762,272	9 / 10
2026-10-12	$5.97	$10,210,762,272	9 / 10
2026-10-13	$5.97	$10,210,762,272	9 / 10
2026-10-14	$5.96	$10,210,762,272	9 / 10
2026-10-15	$5.96	$10,210,762,272	9 / 10
2026-10-16	$5.96	$10,209,202,888	9 / 10
2026-10-17	$5.96	$10,209,202,888	9 / 10
2026-10-18	$5.96	$10,209,202,888	9 / 10
2026-10-19	$5.96	$10,209,202,888	9 / 10
2026-10-20	$5.96	$10,205,529,955	9 / 10
2026-10-21	$5.94	$10,198,683,288	9 / 10
2026-10-22	$5.93	$10,193,949,955	9 / 10
2026-10-23	$5.93	$10,193,949,955	9 / 10
2026-10-24	$5.93	$10,193,949,955	9 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	8	7	1
2026-06-01	8	7	1
2026-07-01	9	7	1
2026-08-01	9	6	1
2026-09-01	9	6	1
2026-10-01	9	6	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

RBC CapitalOct 20

$111.00New observation · no comparable prior

Goldman SachsOct 19

$94.00New observation · no comparable prior

Deutsche BankSep 25 · prior Jul 30

$84.00 → $77.00-8.3%

$0$61.05$122.10

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS around $5.40 in 2026Published status: Broken
Annual revenue growth of about 10%Published status: Broken
Store count reaches at least 483 by Q1 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-42.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Sprouts Farmers Market outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth-oriented grocery business with recent financial performance in the top half of its industry. The long-term thesis is intact, though confidence is medium and risk is elevated.

What's priced into Sprouts Farmers Market

The evidence describes SFM as cheap versus peers, while its valuation measure has risen recently. The priced-in tag is justified, with low fragility and an expectations gap that points to room between current expectations and the evidence snapshot’s assessment.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue grew year over year in the second quarter, and customer engagement remains a stated priority. Store expansion is steady, but evidence of supply-chain progress is limited; recent CEO and CTO transitions add uncertainty, while the latest earnings event was positive.

What Sprouts Farmers Market hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on customer engagement supporting continued growth and on store expansion translating into stronger execution. Near term, a guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data would be negative signals, while continued strong results and higher guidance from sector peers would support the backdrop.