Reading SEM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SEM free→Reading SEM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SEM free→NYSEHealth CareMedical Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. However, the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 4% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $16.61. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $17 SEM trades at 16× p/e, in line with its 15× p/e peer median. Our $16 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 5% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about -1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.90x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated robust grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=1703).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.29 → $0.29 (+0.3% / 30d). 2 raised, 1 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 20% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$12.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$246.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,292.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Confirming EPS guidance shows strong earnings. This helps build investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 EPS reported between $1.22 and $1.32.
Disproves:Q2 EPS falls below $1.22.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SEM yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, Select Medical Holdings Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for its first quarter ended March 31, 2026 (the “Press Release”). A copy of the Press Release and the attached financial schedules are attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and incorporated herein by reference. The information in this report (including Exhibit 99.1) is being furnished pursuant to
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care Facilities.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SEM Select Medical Holdings, Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 53 of 100 | full | moderate |
HCA HCA Healthcare | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | fair | moderate |
THC Tenet Health | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | fair | elevated |
EHC Encompass Health | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | full | moderate |
UHS Universal Health Services | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Select Medical aims to maintain its revenue guidance range of $5.6 billion to $5.8 billion for fiscal year 2026.
Select Medical aims to maintain its EPS guidance range of $1.22 to $1.32 for fiscal year 2026.
Select Medical aims to maintain its Adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $520 million to $540 million for fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: The dividend payout shows the company's financial health. A stable or increasing dividend is a good sign.
Confirms:The company maintains or raises the dividend amount from $0.0625 per share.
Disproves:The company cuts the dividend or stops it entirely.
Why it matters: The merger will take Select Medical private and change its stock structure. This could impact investor confidence and future operations.
Confirms one read:The merger gets all needed approvals from regulators and stockholders by mid-2026.
Confirms the other:The merger fails to secure required approvals or is delayed beyond mid-2026.
Why it matters: Changes in sector growth can affect Select Medical's performance. This can change their outlook.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth drops below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Keeping revenue guidance shows the business is stable and can grow. This is important for investors.
Confirms:Revenue guidance for 2026 remains unchanged within the range of $5.6 billion to $5.8 billion.
Disproves:Revenue guidance is lowered below $5.6 billion for 2026.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how well the company is doing. Strong results could boost investor confidence.
Confirms:Earnings per share (EPS) beats analyst expectations by more than 10%.
Disproves:EPS falls short of analyst expectations by more than 10%.
Why it matters: Unemployment claims affect healthcare needs. More claims can show economic problems.
Confirms one read:Weekly claims drop below 200,000, indicating a strong job market.
Confirms the other:Weekly claims go over 300,000. This shows economic weakness.
Why it matters: This range shows how well the company operates and makes money. These are key for long-term growth.
Confirms:Adjusted EBITDA for 2026 remains within the range of $520 million to $540 million.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA guidance is now below $520 million for 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in dividend payments can show how healthy a company is. They also show management's confidence in future earnings.
Confirms one read:The board declares a dividend increase or maintains the current dividend of $0.0625 per share.
Confirms the other:The board cuts or suspends the dividend payment.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April, 28 2026, the Human Capital and Compensation Committee of the Board of Directors of the Company (the “Compensation Committee”) approved the deferral of the scheduled vesting dates of certain previously granted equity awards held by Robert A. Ortenzio, our Executive Chairman and Co-Founder, and Martin F. Jackson, our Senior Executive Vice P…
Other Events Dividend Declaration On April 29, 2026, the Company’s board of directors declared a cash dividend of $0.0625 per share. The dividend will be payable on or about May 28, 2026 to stockholders of record as of the close of business on May 14, 2026.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Agreement and Plan of Merger On March 2, 2026, Select Medical Holdings Corporation (the “ Company ” or “ Select Medical ”) entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “ Merger Agreement ”) with Stallion Intermediate Corporation, a Delaware corporation (“ Parent ”), and Stallion MergerSub Corporation, a Delaware corporation and a wholly-owned subsidiary of Parent (“ Merger Sub ”). The Merger Agreement provides, among other things and on the ter…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 19, 2026, Select Medical Holdings Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for its fourth quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2025 (the “Press Release”). A copy of the Press Release and the attached financial schedules are attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and incorporated herein by reference. The information in this report (including Exhibit 99.1) is being furnished pursuant to