Reading SDGR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SDGR free→Reading SDGR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SDGR free→NASDAQHealth CareHealth Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with SDGR trading below typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 60% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $14.93. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $15 the market pays 4× p/s — above the 3× p/s peer median but in line with its own 9× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $37 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 59% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.40x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.59 → $-0.60 (-1.7% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 2 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$200.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$542.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,193.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop below this number would show ongoing challenges in revenue growth. This could signal deeper issues in the business model.
Confirms:Q2 revenue was below $58.6M. This shows revenue is still going down.
Disproves:Q2 revenue is stable or above $58.6M. This means recovery efforts are working.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SDGR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Chief Commercial Officer, Global Head of Software Sales and Marketing — Mannix Aklian: Mr. Aklian's separation from the Company with a severance package.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SDGR Schrödinger, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 16 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
CVS CVS Health | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CI Cigna | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
DGX Quest Diagnostics | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | fair | moderate |
LH Labcorp | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Accelerate the transition from traditional on-premise deployments to hosted software licensing.
Introduce Bunsen, an AI co-scientist, to enhance molecular discovery workflows.
Focus on growing drug discovery revenue through collaborations and proprietary programs.
Focus on reducing operating losses to improve overall financial health.
Aim to grow revenue through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Why it matters: A drop in ACV could signal challenges in the transition to hosted software licensing.
Confirms:Q2 ACV reported below $19 million.
Disproves:Q2 ACV reported above $23 million.
Why it matters: The result of this lawsuit could change how the company operates. Legal issues can hurt stock prices.
Confirms:Updates on the lawsuit show a resolution that is good for the company.
Disproves:Negative news in the lawsuit hurts the company's position.
Why it matters: Bunsen's launch could improve Schrödinger's drug discovery. It may also attract new customers.
Confirms:Bunsen is launched and early users give positive feedback.
Disproves:The launch is delayed or receives negative feedback from users.
Why it matters: Partnerships can help speed up the development and sale of these important drugs.
Confirms:Announcement of a strategic partnership for SGR-1505 or SGR-3515 within six months.
Disproves:No partnerships announced. This could cause delays in development.
Why it matters: If revenue goes above this amount, it shows strong demand for Schrödinger's services.
Confirms:Drug discovery revenue was above $65 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Disproves:Revenue below $55 million shows weak results in drug discovery.
Why it matters: Improving operating income is crucial for the company's financial health. A smaller loss would show progress.
Confirms:Operating income was less than -$48.8M. This shows some improvement.
Disproves:Operating income worsened to more than -$48.8M. This shows problems in cost management.
Why it matters: A drop in cash flow could signal operational issues. Strong cash flow is key for growth.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations was below $144.1M. This may mean there are problems.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations is above $144.1M. This confirms ongoing operational strength.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 18, 2026, Mannix Aklian ceased to serve as Schrödinger, Inc.’s (the “Company”) Chief Commercial Officer, Global Head of Software Sales and Marketing, effective immediately. Paul Davie, the Company’s former Executive Vice President, Sales is returning to the Company as interim Chief Commercial Officer, Global Head of Software Sales and Market…
is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements This Current Report on Form 8-K cont…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, Schrödinger, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Appointment of Principal Accounting Officer On March 8, 2026 (the “Effective Date”), the Board of Directors of Schrödinger, Inc. (the “Company”) designated Therese Abrams, the Company’s Vice President, Corporate Controller, as the Company’s principal accounting officer effective immediately. Ms. Abrams, age 42, had served as the Company’s Vice Pres…