Reading CHE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CHE free→Reading CHE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CHE free→NYSEHealth CareMedical Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady. However, the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, although CHE trades above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 6% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. The assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $433.57. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $434 CHE trades at 20× p/e, in line with its 20× p/e peer median. Our $460 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 6% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about 2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted -85.50x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=618).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $5.63 → $5.62 (-0.1% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 25% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$79.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$265.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,384.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This growth would confirm that VITAS is recovering from the Medicare Cap issue. It would also support management's guidance increase.
Confirms:VITAS revenue growth exceeds 6.5% for the full year 2026.
Disproves:VITAS revenue growth falls below 5.5% for the full year 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CHE yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 23, 2026, Chemed Corporation issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CHE Chemed Corp. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 95 of 100 | fair | elevated |
CVS CVS Health | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CI Cigna | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
DGX Quest Diagnostics | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | moderate |
LH Labcorp | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue growth while excluding the impact of the Medicare Cap.
Raise the earnings per share guidance for the fiscal year 2026.
Ensure Roto-Rooter's EBITDA margin remains within the targeted range.
Why it matters: An increase shows stronger earnings potential. It also suggests a positive outlook from management.
Confirms:EPS guidance exceeds $24.75 for 2026.
Disproves:EPS guidance remains below $24.00 for 2026.
Why it matters: If revenue growth is weak, it could indicate ongoing challenges in the plumbing market.
Confirms:Roto-Rooter revenue growth exceeds 3.5% for 2026.
Disproves:Roto-Rooter revenue growth stays below 3.0% for 2026.
ENTRY INTO A MATERIAL DEFINITIVE AGREEMENT On April 10, 2026, Chemed Corporation (“Chemed” or "we") renewed our $450 million senior secured credit facilities (“Credit Facilities”). JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., acted as the Administrative Agent, Joint Lead Arranger and Joint Bookrunner. Bank of America, N.A., acted as Joint Lead Arranger, Joint Bookrunner and Syndication Agent. PNC Bank, N.A. and U.S. Bank, N.A. were Co-Documentation Agents. Terms of the Credit Facilities consist of a five-year…
CREATION OF A DIRECT FINANCIAL OBLIGATION OR AN OBLIGATION UNDER AN OFF-BALANCE SHEET ARRANGEMENT OF A REGISTRANT The information set forth above under
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 25, 2026, Chemed Corporation issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.