Reading VCYT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VCYT free→Reading VCYT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VCYT free→NASDAQHealth CareDiagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady, with capital-friendly moves. However, risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 33% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. Key factors to watch include sector trends and guidance changes from VCYT. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $50.92. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $49 the market pays 25× p/e — above the 19× p/e peer median but in line with its own 24× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $38 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts: $37–$57. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 33% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 15%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.89x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=2269).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.42 → $0.43 (+3.3% / 30d). 6 raised, 2 cut, 10 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 82% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 17.8% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$169.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$430.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,923.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mild_favorable' to 'mixed'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Strong growth in testing revenue signals continued demand for Veracyte's cancer diagnostics. It shows the success of their product launches.
Confirms:Q2 testing revenue growth exceeds 16% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 testing revenue growth falls below 14% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for VCYT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. As further described in
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$37.00 – $57.00 (median $47.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-06-01
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
VCYT Veracyte, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | full | elevated |
CVS CVS Health | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CI Cigna | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
DGX Quest Diagnostics | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | moderate |
LH Labcorp | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | fair | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=618).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on expanding revenue through product launches and market expansion.
Improve operating income through cost management and revenue growth.
Focus on generating higher cash flow from operational efficiencies.
Why it matters: These launches are important for Veracyte. They can help the company make more money.
Confirms:Prosigna LDT and TrueMRD launched well. They have reported some initial sales.
Disproves:Launches are late or initial sales are much lower than expected.
Why it matters: If operating income grows over 50%, it shows good cost management. This may help how investors feel.
Confirms:Operating income reported to grow above 50% in Q2.
Disproves:Operating income growth was less than 50% in Q2.
Why it matters: More cash from operations shows strong finances. This helps support future growth.
Confirms:Cash from operations in Q2 exceeds $35 million.
Disproves:Cash from operations in Q2 falls below $30 million.
Why it matters: A higher adjusted EBITDA margin means better profits. This is key for long-term success.
Confirms:Adjusted EBITDA margin in Q2 is over 26%.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA margin in Q2 is below 25%.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, Veracyte, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The full text of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liability of that s…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 16, 2026, Veracyte, Inc. (the “Company”) announced the appointment of Dr. Kevin Haas, 40, as its Chief Development and Technology Officer, effective March 24, 2026. Prior to joining the Company, Dr. Haas served as Chief Technology Officer of Myriad Genetics, Inc. (NASDAQ: MYGN), a genetic testing and precision medicine company, a position…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 25, 2026, Veracyte, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. The full text of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the l…