Reading CON? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CON free→Reading CON? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CON free→NYSEHealth CareMedical Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady, with capital-friendly moves. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, CON is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair. If CON reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising, that could lead to a credibility hit. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $28.49. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $28 CON trades at 20× p/e, in line with its 20× p/e peer median. Our $29 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 3% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.62x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=2269).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.44 → $0.43 (-3.6% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 8 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 20.4% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$117.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$264.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,139.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Maintaining the dividend signals strong cash flow and commitment to shareholders. A cut could indicate financial stress.
Confirms:Dividend payout remains at $0.0625 per share for the next quarter.
Disproves:Dividend payout is reduced below $0.0625 per share.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CON yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for its first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release and financial schedules are attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and incorporated herein by reference. The information in this report (including Exhibit 99.1) is being furnished pursuant to
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CON Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CVS CVS Health | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CI Cigna | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
DGX Quest Diagnostics | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | moderate |
LH Labcorp | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | fair | moderate |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=618).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue through operational and strategic initiatives.
Enhance operating income through improved efficiency and cost management.
Continue to provide a stable dividend payout to shareholders.
Why it matters: More patient visits show strong demand for Concentra's services. This helps revenue grow.
Confirms:Q2 patient visits grow year over year more than 6.7%.
Disproves:Q2 patient visits grow year over year less than 6.7%.
Why it matters: Going above this range shows strong cash flow and good operations.
Confirms:Free Cash Flow reported above $235 million for 2026.
Disproves:Free Cash Flow reported below $215 million for 2026.
Why it matters: A slowdown in revenue growth could signal challenges in the health services sector.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising the dividend shows trust in cash flow and financial strength.
Confirms:The Board declares a dividend for Q3 2026.
Disproves:No dividend declared for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend payout shows the company is financially healthy. It also shows care for shareholders.
Confirms one read:A cash dividend declared in Q3 2026 at least equal to $0.0625 per share.
Confirms the other:No cash dividend declared in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Opening new centers is important for Concentra's growth. It helps the company expand.
Confirms:At least two new de novo centers opened by Q3 2026.
Disproves:No new de novo centers opened by Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A smooth transition can keep operations stable. It can also maintain Concentra's service quality.
Confirms one read:A new CMO is appointed and publicly announced.
Confirms the other:If no new CMO is chosen by year-end, it may cause operational uncertainty.
Why it matters: Strong operating income growth means better efficiency and more profit. This helps the company grow.
Confirms:Operating income growth is over 10% compared to last year.
Disproves:Operating income growth is below 5% compared to last year.
Why it matters: A lower leverage ratio means better financial health. This shows the company is more reliable.
Confirms:Net leverage ratio reported below 3.0x in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Net leverage ratio remains above 3.0x in Q2 2026.
Other Events. Dividend Declaration On May 5, 2026, the Board of Directors declared a cash dividend of $0.0625 per share. The dividend will be payable on or about June 9, 2026, to stockholders of record as of the close of business on May 19, 2026.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Chief Medical Officer Departure On April 10, 2026, Dr. John Anderson notified Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. (the “Company”) of his retirement from his position as Executive Vice President and Chief Medical Officer of the Company effective as of December 31, 2026. The Company expects to enter into a Consulting Agreement with Dr. Anderson to…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 26, 2026, Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for its fourth quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release and financial schedules are attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and incorporated herein by reference. The information in this report (including Exhibit 99.1) is being furnished pursuant to
Other Events. Dividend Declaration On February 25, 2026, the Board of Directors declared a cash dividend of $0.0625 per share. The dividend will be payable on or about March 19, 2026, to stockholders of record as of the close of business on March 12, 2026.