Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. (CON)

NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$39.25-1.80%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.84 → 1.84 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	572.11M
EPS	—	0.288
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$2.33B–$2.38B	2.35B
EPS	—	1.648
EBITDA	$485M–$495Mnon-GAAP	—
Free cash flow	$220M–$240M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.5B
EPS	—	1.845

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain dividend payout at $0.0625 per share	A supporting condition in Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $0.0625 per share.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.06 in next 4 quarters	Dividend per share: $0.06 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.0625 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20260.0625 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e2245217-b3d8-42e3-b2ff-b7bc2e7a0491. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. The Board declared consistent quarterly dividends of $0.0625 per share in both Q1 and Q2 2026. Dividend payments have been maintained steadily, reflecting management's commitment to returning capital. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Free cash flow around $225 million	Free cash flow is solid at about $225 million.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $200 million in FY26	Free cash flow: $119.545M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$225 million FCF. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026119,545,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating margin near 20%	A primary condition in Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~20% operating margin.	Improving	Operating margin falls below 18% in FY26	Operating margin: 18.99% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~20% operating margin. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202618.987179 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e2245217-b3d8-42e3-b2ff-b7bc2e7a0491. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth at or above 7% annually	A primary condition in Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 7% in FY26	Revenue growth: 10.03% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=7% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202610.03023 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e2245217-b3d8-42e3-b2ff-b7bc2e7a0491. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.84

$1.69 → $1.84 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$2.50B

$2.47B → $2.50B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.69	$2,470,740,200	9 / 9
2026-07-25	$1.69	$2,470,740,200	9 / 9
2026-07-26	$1.69	$2,470,740,200	9 / 9
2026-07-27	$1.69	$2,470,643,247	5 / 7
2026-07-28	$1.69	$2,470,740,200	9 / 9
2026-07-29	$1.69	$2,470,643,247	5 / 7
2026-07-30	$1.69	$2,470,740,200	9 / 9
2026-07-31	$1.69	$2,470,643,247	5 / 7
2026-08-01	$1.69	$2,470,643,247	5 / 7
2026-08-02	$1.69	$2,470,740,200	9 / 9
2026-08-03	$1.69	$2,470,643,247	5 / 7
2026-08-04	$1.69	$2,470,643,247	5 / 7
2026-08-05	$1.69	$2,470,643,247	5 / 7
2026-08-06	$1.69	$2,470,643,247	5 / 7
2026-08-07	$1.69	$2,470,643,247	5 / 7
2026-08-08	$1.71	$2,473,520,900	9 / 9
2026-08-09	$1.71	$2,473,520,900	9 / 9
2026-08-10	$1.71	$2,473,520,900	9 / 9
2026-08-11	$1.74	$2,478,420,900	9 / 9
2026-08-12	$1.69	$2,470,643,247	5 / 7
2026-08-13	$1.82	$2,488,792,820	9 / 9
2026-08-14	$1.69	$2,470,643,247	5 / 7
2026-08-15	$1.69	$2,470,643,247	5 / 7
2026-08-16	$1.69	$2,470,643,247	5 / 7
2026-08-17	$1.69	$2,470,643,247	5 / 7
2026-08-18	$1.69	$2,470,643,247	5 / 7
2026-08-19	$1.69	$2,470,643,247	5 / 7
2026-08-20	$1.69	$2,470,643,247	5 / 7
2026-08-21	$1.83	$2,491,161,061	5 / 7
2026-08-22	$1.83	$2,491,161,061	5 / 7
2026-08-23	$1.83	$2,491,161,061	5 / 7
2026-08-24	$1.83	$2,491,161,061	5 / 7
2026-08-25	$1.83	$2,491,161,061	5 / 7
2026-08-26	$1.83	$2,491,161,061	5 / 7
2026-08-27	$1.83	$2,491,161,061	5 / 7
2026-08-28	$1.83	$2,491,161,061	5 / 7
2026-08-29	$1.83	$2,493,806,194	5 / 7
2026-08-30	$1.83	$2,493,806,194	5 / 7
2026-08-31	$1.83	$2,493,806,194	5 / 7
2026-09-01	$1.83	$2,493,806,194	5 / 7
2026-09-02	$1.83	$2,493,806,194	5 / 7
2026-09-03	$1.83	$2,493,806,194	5 / 7
2026-09-04	$1.83	$2,493,806,194	5 / 7
2026-09-05	$1.83	$2,493,806,194	5 / 7
2026-09-06	$1.83	$2,493,806,194	5 / 7
2026-09-07	$1.83	$2,493,806,194	5 / 7
2026-09-08	$1.83	$2,493,806,194	5 / 7
2026-09-09	$1.83	$2,493,806,194	5 / 7
2026-09-10	$1.83	$2,493,806,194	5 / 7
2026-09-11	$1.84	$2,493,383,283	5 / 7
2026-09-12	$1.84	$2,493,383,283	5 / 7
2026-09-13	$1.84	$2,493,383,283	5 / 7
2026-09-14	$1.84	$2,493,383,283	5 / 7
2026-09-15	$1.84	$2,493,383,283	5 / 7
2026-09-16	$1.84	$2,493,383,283	5 / 7
2026-09-17	$1.84	$2,493,383,283	5 / 7
2026-09-18	$1.84	$2,493,383,283	5 / 7
2026-09-19	$1.84	$2,493,383,283	5 / 7
2026-09-20	$1.84	$2,493,383,283	5 / 7
2026-09-21	$1.84	$2,493,383,283	5 / 7
2026-09-22	$1.84	$2,493,383,283	5 / 7
2026-09-23	$1.84	$2,493,383,283	5 / 7
2026-09-24	$1.84	$2,493,383,283	5 / 7
2026-09-25	$1.84	$2,493,383,283	5 / 7
2026-09-26	$1.84	$2,493,383,283	5 / 7
2026-09-27	$1.84	$2,493,383,283	5 / 7
2026-09-28	$1.84	$2,493,383,283	5 / 7
2026-09-29	$1.84	$2,493,383,283	5 / 7
2026-09-30	$1.84	$2,493,383,283	5 / 7
2026-10-01	$1.84	$2,493,383,283	5 / 7
2026-10-02	$1.84	$2,493,383,283	5 / 7
2026-10-03	$1.84	$2,493,383,283	5 / 7
2026-10-04	$1.84	$2,493,383,283	5 / 7
2026-10-05	$1.84	$2,493,383,283	5 / 7
2026-10-06	$1.84	$2,493,383,283	5 / 7
2026-10-07	$1.84	$2,493,383,283	5 / 7
2026-10-08	$1.84	$2,493,383,283	5 / 7
2026-10-09	$1.84	$2,493,383,283	5 / 7
2026-10-10	$1.84	$2,493,383,283	5 / 7
2026-10-11	$1.84	$2,493,383,283	5 / 7
2026-10-12	$1.84	$2,493,383,283	5 / 7
2026-10-13	$1.84	$2,493,383,283	5 / 7
2026-10-14	$1.84	$2,493,383,283	5 / 7
2026-10-15	$1.84	$2,493,383,283	5 / 7
2026-10-16	$1.84	$2,493,383,283	5 / 7
2026-10-17	$1.84	$2,493,383,283	5 / 7
2026-10-18	$1.84	$2,494,831,455	5 / 8
2026-10-19	$1.84	$2,494,831,455	5 / 8
2026-10-20	$1.84	$2,494,831,455	5 / 8
2026-10-21	$1.84	$2,495,417,686	6 / 8
2026-10-22	$1.84	$2,495,417,686	6 / 8
2026-10-23	$1.84	$2,495,417,686	6 / 8
2026-10-24	$1.84	$2,495,417,686	6 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	7	0	0
2026-06-01	8	0	0
2026-07-01	9	0	0
2026-08-01	9	0	0
2026-09-01	9	0	0
2026-10-01	11	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

StephensOct 19

$45.00New observation · no comparable prior

JefferiesOct 16

$47.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$25.85$51.70

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain dividend payout at $0.0625 per shareDividend per share: $0.06 per share
Free cash flow around $225 millionFree cash flow: $119.545M
Operating margin near 20%Operating margin: 18.99%
Revenue growth at or above 7% annuallyRevenue growth: 10.03%

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-13.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

CON is a healthcare growth business with a cyclical element, supported by rising revenue, patient visits, and profitability. Its multi-year view is intact, though management is rated volatile and the evidence behind the thesis is only medium confidence.

What's priced into Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc.

The valuation is tagged as stretched, with CON at a modest premium to peers and an expectations gap that is aligned rather than clearly favorable. Weak execution quality is the main fragility noted, but the snapshot does not show the full combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulence.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent results show strong momentum: Q2 revenue rose 10% year over year, while operating income and adjusted EBITDA grew faster. Management has raised guidance, and its stated growth and profitability priorities are on track, but a later guidance cut would damage credibility; the recent CEO transition adds uncertainty.

What Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on sustaining growth and profitability without reversing the recent guidance increase. A weakening jobs market could weigh on cyclical healthcare names, while continued strong results from sector peers could support the sector backdrop.