Reading BTSG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BTSG free→Reading BTSG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BTSG free→NASDAQHealth CareHealth Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality and management are neutral. The capital stance is friendly to shareholders. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, BTSG is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 79% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. Rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $64.08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $64, BTSG's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 63× p/e (3.2× the 19× p/e peer median, and 1.1× even its own history). That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $36 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $49–$71. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 76% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.66x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=2269).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.37 → $0.39 (+5.9% / 30d). 10 raised, 1 cut, 13 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 20.1% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$179.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$405.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,793.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Pharmacy Solutions is a key growth driver. Its growth rate shows how well the company is performing.
Confirms:Pharmacy Solutions revenue growth rate exceeds 12.3% year over year.
Disproves:Pharmacy Solutions revenue growth rate falls below 10.1% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BTSG yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On June 11, 2026, the board of directors (the “Board”) of BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. (the “Company”) increased the number of directors serving on the Board from seven (7) to eight (8) members and appointed Dr. Nigam H. Shah to the Board as a Class III director to fill the resulting vacancy. Dr. Shah will serve until his successor shall be e…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$49.00 – $71.00 (median $61.50) · 12 analysts · as of 2026-06-08
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BTSG BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CVS CVS Health | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CI Cigna | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
DGX Quest Diagnostics | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | moderate |
LH Labcorp | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | fair | moderate |
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue growth through strategic initiatives.
Enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Aim to enhance gross profit margins through strategic cost management.
Why it matters: The average daily census shows how many patients use services. It shows demand and success.
Confirms:Home Health Care average daily census increases to over 50,000.
Disproves:Home Health Care average daily census drops below 40,000.
Why it matters: Share buybacks can boost earnings per share. Monitoring this shows how management is returning value to shareholders.
Confirms:Company completes buyback of at least 5 million shares.
Disproves:Company announces a halt to the share buyback program.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 3, 2026, BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an underwriting agreement with KKR Phoenix Aggregator L.P. (the “KKR Selling Stockholder”), the Management Selling Stockholders (as defined therein) (together with the KKR Selling Stockholder, the “Selling Stockholders”), and Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC (the “Underwriter”), relating to an underwritten offering (the “Offering”) of 14,999,771 shares of the Company’s common st…
The information furnished under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities under that section and shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as otherwise expressly stated by specific reference in any such filing.
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. As previously disclosed in the Current Report on Form 8-K filed by BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. (the “Company”) on January 21, 2025, Res-Care, Inc. (“Res-Care”), a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company, certain other affiliated entities, and the Company, entered into a Purchase Agreement, dated January 17, 2025, as amended by that certain First Amendment to Purchase Agreement dated December 5, 2025 (collectively, the “Agreement”), wit…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Effective upon the closing of the Transaction, Robert Barnes, who served as President, ResCare Community Living, resigned from the Company. Mr. Barnes is not entitled to any severance benefits in connection with his resignation from the Company, but in consideration for his service, the Company will accelerate the vesting of (i) 15,540 restricted s…