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NYSEHealth CareHealthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$100.72+0.04%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 16% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, quality intact. Key factors to watch include CVS's guidance and the performance of sector bellwethers like UNH, ELV, and CI. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Health Care
- Industry
- Healthcare Plans
- Market cap
- $130.09B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1969-12-31
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-30
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $100.72. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$120.60consensus
Range $98.64 – $137.66
vs price: -16% below
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$167.63consensus
Range $112.32 – $186.93
vs price: -40% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peersmedium confidence
At $101 CVS trades at 14× p/e, below its 19× p/e peer median. Our $122 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $92–$115. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
14.2x
peer 19.2x · own history 11.4x
Premium
0.7x peer
1.2x its own history
Growth the price needs
-17%
our forecast 15%
Our fair value
$121.85
range $99.24 – $139.08
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is above the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair — quality intact12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 17% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 15%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
81st pctl · Health Care
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 3.52x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated robust grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=1703).
87th pctl · Health Care
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
neutral12 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullish6 PT revisions / 30d, avg 19.5% above currentfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.82 → $1.83 (+0.2% / 30d). 16 raised, 2 cut, 21 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 5 maintained. 86% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
6 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 19.5% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklyManagement scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 2 guided quarters · 5.3% avg surprise
as of 2026-06-16
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$119.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$239.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,644.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceWeeksactive 4d
Watch for results of the Any and All Tender Offer
Why it matters: The outcome will show how much debt CVS is reducing. This affects cash flow.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:CVS accepts for purchase at least $950 million of the 4.100% Senior Notes due 2025.
Disproves:Less than $225 million of the 4.100% Senior Notes due 2025 are accepted for purchase.
Material event
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CVS yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth re-acceleration in Health Care
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like UNH, ELV, and CI keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Healthcare sector momentum should keep lifting CVS and other Healthcare names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If CVS beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a solid beat of +16% on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for CVS and other Healthcare names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If CVS reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-05-06), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like UNH, ELV, and CI start missing or guiding lower, the Healthcare tailwind helping CVS and other Healthcare names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-181mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers (e) On May 14, 2026, CVS Health Corporation (the “Company”) held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders (the “Annual Meeting”). At the Annual Meeting, the Company’s stockholders approved the 2026 Incentive Compensation Plan of CVS Health Corporation (the “2026 ICP”), which replaces the Company’s expiring 2017 Incentive Compensation Plan. The 2026 I…
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-4.0 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.