Reading CRVL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CRVL free→Reading CRVL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CRVL free→NASDAQHealth CareInsurance BrokersSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady, with capital-friendly moves. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is elevated, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 44% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. If CRVL cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $59.69. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $59 the market pays 28× p/e — above the 19× p/e peer median but in line with its own 41× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $41 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 43% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 12%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=889): about 49% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 85% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.34x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=2269).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 28.7% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$135.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$319.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,607.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will reveal if revenue growth continues or slows, which is key for the sector's performance.
Confirms:Reported Q2 revenue growth drops below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth remains above 10% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CRVL yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Transition of Chief Executive Officer and President; Appointment as Executive Chair Michael G. Combs, the Chief Executive Officer, President, and Chairman of the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of CorVel Corporation (the “Company”) is transitioning from his role as Chief Executive Officer and President of the Company, effective July 1, 2026, and h…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CRVL CorVel Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
CVS CVS Health | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CI Cigna | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
DGX Quest Diagnostics | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | moderate |
LH Labcorp | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | fair | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=618).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
CERIS is accelerating revenue realization cycles with expanded adoption of prepay solutions.
Ongoing investments in AI and automation are enhancing operational efficiency and outcomes.
P&C services are advancing its technology-enabled, clinically integrated model.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show CorVel's financial health and growth path. Strong results can raise investor trust.
Confirms one read:Earnings per share for Q2 2026 exceeds $0.65.
Confirms the other:Earnings per share for Q2 2026 falls below $0.55.
Why it matters: Tracking revenue growth will show if CorVel keeps growing. Steady growth is key for investor trust.
Confirms:Q2 2026 revenue growth above 7% year-over-year.
Disproves:Q2 2026 revenue growth below 5% year-over-year.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how the company is doing. It will also give hints about the future.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows revenue and profit that are better than expected.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows revenue and profit that are worse than expected.
Why it matters: Expanding CERIS prepay solutions is a key growth priority. Success here could drive revenue and market share.
Confirms:Quarterly revenue from CERIS prepay solutions is up over 10% from last year.
Disproves:Quarterly revenue from CERIS prepay solutions falls or grows less than 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Weak performance in the sector can affect CorVel's stock. It can also change how investors feel.
Confirms:Health Care sector underperforms the broader market by more than 5% over the next month.
Disproves:Health Care sector outperforms the broader market by more than 5% over the next month.
Why it matters: Sarah Scott's first strategic plan will show how she plans to lead CorVel. Investors will look for changes that could impact growth.
Confirms:A press release or presentation will share new plans from the new CEO.
Disproves:No announcement means current strategies will stay the same.
Why it matters: Investing in AI and automation is key for better efficiency. Good results can increase profits.
Confirms:By Q4 2026, there are clear gains in efficiency or lower costs from AI and automation.
Disproves:By Q4 2026, no clear gains in efficiency or higher costs are reported.
Why it matters: Sarah Scott's leadership will shape CorVel's future growth and strategic direction. Investors will want to see how her vision affects company performance.
Confirms one read:Revenue grew and operations improved in Q3 2026 compared to Q2 2026.
Confirms the other:Revenue or operations fell in Q3 2026 compared to Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Sarah Scott's leadership will shape CorVel's future. Investors will look for her impact on growth and strategy.
Confirms one read:Positive news shows growth or better operations with Sarah Scott in charge.
Confirms the other:Negative news or flat performance shows problems in the leadership change.
Why it matters: A drop below the median would signal a slowdown in the health care sector, impacting CorVel's performance.
Confirms:Health care sector revenue growth falls below its median of 10%.
Disproves:Health care sector revenue growth stays above its median.
and in the exhibit attached to this report as Exhibit 99.1 is being furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liability of that section, or incorporated by reference in any filing of the Company under the Exchange Act or the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in su…
and in the exhibit attached to this report as Exhibit 99.1 is being furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liability of that section, or incorporated by reference in any filing of the Company under the Exchange Act or the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in su…