Reading DGX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DGX free→Quest Diagnostics (DGX)
NYSEHealth CareDiagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$201.03-0.57%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. The sector backdrop is a headwind, though DGX is performing above typical compared to sector peers, and its capital stance is capital-friendly. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair. This assessment hinges on the potential for guidance cuts, which could damage credibility, and the performance of sector bellwethers that may influence Healthcare sector momentum. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Health Care
- Industry
- Diagnostics & Research
- Market cap
- $22.48B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1996-11-25
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-28
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $201.03. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$198.40consensus
Range $190.70 – $216.81
vs price: +1% above
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$256.34consensus
Range $244.92 – $336.88
vs price: -22% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peersmedium confidence
At $201 DGX trades at 20× p/e, in line with its 19× p/e peer median. Our $198 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Analysts: $210–$225. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
19.8x
peer 19.0x · own history 17.1x
Premium
1.0x peer
1.2x its own history
Growth the price needs
1%
our forecast -60%
Our fair value
$198.40
range $190.70 – $220.27
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 1% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -60%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
88th pctl · Health Care
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.81x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=2269).
61st pctl · Health Care
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutral8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bearish14 analysts, 50% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $2.87 → $2.82 (-1.5% / 30d). 2 raised, 10 cut, 14 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: health care is in maturing, with decelerating (~0.5 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Mature by revenue growth · theme biologics/biosimilars.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$79.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$197.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,156.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 11d
Watch for Q2 revenue growth guidance confirmation
Why it matters: Confirming revenue growth guidance shows Quest is on track to meet its goals.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Management confirms Q2 revenue growth guidance of 6.8% to 7.8% year over year.
Disproves:Management lowers Q2 revenue growth guidance below 6.0% year over year.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for DGX yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth re-acceleration in Health Care
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like TMO, DHR, and IDXX keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Healthcare sector momentum should keep lifting DGX and other Healthcare names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If DGX beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a beat of +5% on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for DGX and other Healthcare names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If DGX reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-04-21), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like TMO, DHR, and IDXX start missing or guiding lower, the Healthcare tailwind helping DGX and other Healthcare names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-081mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On May 6, 2026, Quest Diagnostics Incorporated (the “Company”) issued $500,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 5.000% senior notes due 2036 (the “Notes”). The Company will pay interest on the Notes on June 30 and December 30 of each year, beginning on December 30, 2026. The Notes will mature on June 30, 2036. The Notes will be the senior unsecured obligations of the Company and will rank equally with the Company’s other existing and future senior u…
Capital allocationpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
About the same as last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.