NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-08-31
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Create your account →Broken: Primary pillar broken — Adjusted EPS guidance raised to $7.30 per share in 2026: EPS $6.94 vs $7.30 target.
CVS grows revenue above $400 billion in 2026. Profit margin stays near 13.4%. Free cash flow rises to at least $9.5 billion. EPS guidance is raised to $7.30 per share.
Regulators may limit drug prices, hurting revenue and profits. CEO changes could disrupt plans. Growth could slow below 3% revenue increase.
The price is about 5% below our fair value near $109. Analysts expect 3% revenue growth, which we agree with.
Breaks if: Adjusted EPS guidance falls below $7.00 in FY26
Raise full-year 2026 GAAP diluted EPS and Adjusted EPS guidance ranges reflecting improved segment performance.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a stable compounder with a focus on earnings growth. The current thesis is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance despite some recent declines in company quality and momentum.
The market currently prices CVS at a premium compared to peers, indicating expectations for continued strong performance. However, there is a slight expectations gap, suggesting that some growth may already be factored into the valuation.
Management is on track to increase adjusted earnings per share and maintain revenue guidance, which supports a positive outlook. However, cash flow from operations is mixed, and there is a low probability of missing earnings expectations.
The long-term thesis hinges on CVS maintaining its earnings guidance and navigating potential sector challenges. Key factors include the performance of sector bellwethers and the overall economic environment, particularly job growth.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The company raised its adjusted EPS guidance by $0.60. This new range is $7.90 to $8.10 for 2026. Revenue over the trailing twelve months is about $415 billion, up 7.4%. The latest earnings beat supports this improved outlook. There are no new threats identified at this time.
as of 2026-08-31
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Management raised full-year 2026 GAAP diluted EPS guidance from $6.24-$6.44 in 2026-Q1 to $6.84-$7.04 in 2026-Q2, and Adjusted EPS guidance from $7.30-$7.50 to $7.90-$8.10. This reflects improved operating income and segment performance, consistent with management's stated focus on EPS growth, demonstrating delivery on this priority.
“Raising full-year 2026 guidance: GAAP diluted EPS guidance range to $6.84 to $7.04 from $6.24 to $6.44; Adjusted EPS guidance range to $7.90 to $8.10 from $7.30 to $7.50”
“Raising full-year 2026 guidance: GAAP diluted EPS guidance range to $6.24 to $6.44 from $5.94 to $6.14; Adjusted EPS guidance range to $7.30 to $7.50 from $7.00 to $7.20”
“Confirmed Adjusted EPS guidance range of $7.00 to $7.20”
“Raised Adjusted EPS guidance range to $6.55 to $6.65 from $6.30 to $6.40”
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $9 billion in FY26
Raise full-year cash flow from operations guidance reflecting strong operating cash generation.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Management raised full-year 2026 cash flow from operations guidance from at least $9.5 billion in 2026-Q1 to at least $11.5 billion in 2026-Q2, supported by year-to-date cash flow of $10.6 billion. This demonstrates delivery on the priority of increasing operating cash flow.
“Raising full-year 2026 guidance: Cash flow from operations guidance to at least $11.5 billion from at least $9.5 billion”
“Raising full-year 2026 guidance: Cash flow from operations guidance to at least $9.5 billion from at least $9.0 billion”
“Updated cash flow from operations guidance to at least $9.0 billion from at least $10.0 billion”
“Updated cash flow from operations guidance to a range of $7.5 billion to $8.0 billion from at least $7.5 billion”
Breaks if: Operating margin falls below 12% in FY26
Raise full-year 2026 GAAP diluted EPS and Adjusted EPS guidance ranges reflecting improved segment performance.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Management raised full-year 2026 GAAP diluted EPS guidance from $6.24-$6.44 in 2026-Q1 to $6.84-$7.04 in 2026-Q2, and Adjusted EPS guidance from $7.30-$7.50 to $7.90-$8.10. This reflects improved operating income and segment performance, consistent with management's stated focus on EPS growth, demonstrating delivery on this priority.
“Raising full-year 2026 guidance: GAAP diluted EPS guidance range to $6.84 to $7.04 from $6.24 to $6.44; Adjusted EPS guidance range to $7.90 to $8.10 from $7.30 to $7.50”
“Raising full-year 2026 guidance: GAAP diluted EPS guidance range to $6.24 to $6.44 from $5.94 to $6.14; Adjusted EPS guidance range to $7.30 to $7.50 from $7.00 to $7.20”
“Confirmed Adjusted EPS guidance range of $7.00 to $7.20”
“Raised Adjusted EPS guidance range to $6.55 to $6.65 from $6.30 to $6.40”
Breaks if: New drug price controls are enacted that limit revenue
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $400 billion in FY26
Maintain or raise full-year revenue guidance at or above $400 billion reflecting growth across segments.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Management maintained or raised full-year revenue guidance to at least $400 billion, with second quarter 2026 revenues up 7.3% year-over-year to $106.1 billion. This reflects consistent delivery on revenue growth expectations.
“Second quarter total revenues increased to $106.1 billion, up 7.3% year-over-year; full-year 2026 projected total revenues at least $414.0 billion”
“First quarter total revenues increased to $100.4 billion, up 6.2% year-over-year; full-year 2026 projected total revenues at least $405.0 billion”
“Raised total revenues guidance to at least $400.0 billion from at least $397.3 billion”
“The Company is initiating its 2026 full-year financial guidance as follows: Total revenues of at least $400.0 billion”
Over the next 1 to 3 years, CVS's performance will depend on its ability to deliver on management priorities amidst a moderately risky backdrop. Not investment advice.
