CVS Health (CVS)

NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-10-15

$92.36-0.24%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge CVS Health’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

8.51 → 8.52 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 18 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 18 to 18; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

5 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EPS guidance raised to $7.30 per share in 2026	EPS guidance is raised to $7.30 per share.	Broken	Adjusted EPS guidance falls below $7.00 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Management raised full-year 2026 GAAP diluted EPS guidance from $6.24-$6.44 in 2026-Q1 to $6.84-$7.04 in 2026-Q2, and Adjusted EPS guidance from $7.30-$7.50 to $7.90-$8.10. This reflects improved operating income and segment performance, consistent with management's stated focus on EPS growth, demonstrating delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Free cash flow at least $9.5 billion in fiscal 2026	Free cash flow rises to at least $9.5 billion.	Under Pressure	Free cash flow falls below $9 billion in FY26	Free cash flow: $5.654B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $9.5 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20265,654,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Management raised full-year 2026 cash flow from operations guidance from at least $9.5 billion in 2026-Q1 to at least $11.5 billion in 2026-Q2, supported by year-to-date cash flow of $10.6 billion. This demonstrates delivery on the priority of increasing operating cash flow. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Operating margin near 13.4% in fiscal 2026	Profit margin stays near 13.4%.	Under Pressure	Operating margin falls below 12% in FY26	Operating margin: 4.43% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~13.4%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20264.432778 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 138da748-268c-4db1-89df-f9923b29e92d. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Management raised full-year 2026 GAAP diluted EPS guidance from $6.24-$6.44 in 2026-Q1 to $6.84-$7.04 in 2026-Q2, and Adjusted EPS guidance from $7.30-$7.50 to $7.90-$8.10. This reflects improved operating income and segment performance, consistent with management's stated focus on EPS growth, demonstrating delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
No major drug price controls limiting revenue	A supporting condition in CVS Health's published investment case. The stated target is No new restrictive drug price regulations.	Intact	New drug price controls are enacted that limit revenue	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue at least $405 billion in fiscal 2026	Free cash flow rises to at least $9.5 billion.	Under Pressure	Revenue falls below $400 billion in FY26	Revenue: $106.096B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $405 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026106,096,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 138da748-268c-4db1-89df-f9923b29e92d. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Management maintained or raised full-year revenue guidance to at least $400 billion, with second quarter 2026 revenues up 7.3% year-over-year to $106.1 billion. This reflects consistent delivery on revenue growth expectations. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$8.52

$8.41 → $8.52 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$429.65B

$426.70B → $429.65B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$8.41	$426,700,144,360	27 / 23
2026-07-25	$8.42	$426,716,835,060	27 / 23
2026-07-26	$8.42	$426,716,835,060	27 / 23
2026-07-27	$8.43	$426,275,873,218	17 / 18
2026-07-28	$8.42	$426,716,835,060	27 / 23
2026-07-29	$8.43	$426,275,873,218	17 / 18
2026-07-30	$8.42	$426,716,835,060	27 / 23
2026-07-31	$8.42	$426,716,835,060	27 / 23
2026-08-01	$8.44	$426,275,873,218	17 / 18
2026-08-02	$8.44	$426,275,873,218	18 / 18
2026-08-03	$8.44	$426,275,873,218	18 / 18
2026-08-04	$8.44	$426,275,873,218	18 / 18
2026-08-05	$8.44	$426,275,873,218	18 / 18
2026-08-06	$8.43	$426,523,582,110	26 / 22
2026-08-07	$8.46	$427,300,270,531	17 / 17
2026-08-08	$8.47	$428,421,098,030	26 / 22
2026-08-09	$8.47	$428,421,098,030	26 / 22
2026-08-10	$8.46	$427,300,270,531	17 / 17
2026-08-11	$8.48	$429,198,416,220	26 / 22
2026-08-12	$8.46	$427,300,270,531	17 / 17
2026-08-13	$8.46	$427,300,270,531	17 / 17
2026-08-14	$8.46	$427,300,270,531	17 / 17
2026-08-15	$8.46	$427,300,270,531	17 / 17
2026-08-16	$8.46	$427,300,270,531	17 / 17
2026-08-17	$8.46	$427,300,270,531	17 / 17
2026-08-18	$8.46	$427,300,270,531	17 / 17
2026-08-19	$8.46	$427,300,270,531	17 / 17
2026-08-20	$8.49	$429,211,239,992	17 / 17
2026-08-21	$8.49	$429,211,239,992	17 / 17
2026-08-22	$8.49	$429,211,239,992	17 / 17
2026-08-23	$8.49	$429,211,239,992	17 / 17
2026-08-24	$8.49	$429,211,239,992	17 / 17
2026-08-25	$8.49	$429,211,239,992	17 / 17
2026-08-26	$8.49	$429,108,718,253	17 / 17
2026-08-27	$8.49	$429,108,718,253	17 / 17
2026-08-28	$8.49	$429,108,718,253	17 / 17
2026-08-29	$8.49	$429,195,655,631	17 / 17
2026-08-30	$8.49	$429,195,655,631	17 / 17
2026-08-31	$8.49	$429,195,655,631	17 / 17
2026-09-01	$8.49	$429,195,655,631	17 / 17
2026-09-02	$8.49	$429,195,655,631	17 / 17
2026-09-03	$8.49	$428,471,900,364	17 / 17
2026-09-04	$8.49	$428,471,900,364	18 / 17
2026-09-05	$8.50	$428,993,639,494	18 / 17
2026-09-06	$8.50	$428,993,639,494	18 / 17
2026-09-07	$8.50	$428,993,639,494	18 / 17
2026-09-08	$8.50	$428,993,639,494	18 / 17
2026-09-09	$8.50	$428,993,639,494	18 / 17
2026-09-10	$8.51	$429,224,847,459	17 / 17
2026-09-11	$8.51	$429,224,847,459	17 / 17
2026-09-12	$8.51	$429,224,847,459	18 / 17
2026-09-13	$8.51	$429,224,847,459	18 / 17
2026-09-14	$8.51	$429,224,847,459	18 / 17
2026-09-15	$8.51	$429,224,847,459	18 / 17
2026-09-16	$8.51	$429,224,847,459	18 / 17
2026-09-17	$8.51	$429,224,847,459	18 / 17
2026-09-18	$8.51	$429,224,847,459	18 / 17
2026-09-19	$8.51	$429,224,847,459	18 / 17
2026-09-20	$8.51	$429,224,847,459	18 / 17
2026-09-21	$8.51	$429,224,847,459	18 / 17
2026-09-22	$8.51	$429,224,847,459	18 / 17
2026-09-23	$8.51	$429,224,847,459	18 / 17
2026-09-24	$8.51	$429,224,847,459	18 / 17
2026-09-25	$8.51	$429,585,151,807	18 / 17
2026-09-26	$8.51	$429,585,130,155	18 / 17
2026-09-27	$8.51	$429,585,130,155	18 / 17
2026-09-28	$8.51	$429,585,130,155	18 / 17
2026-09-29	$8.51	$429,585,130,155	18 / 17
2026-09-30	$8.51	$429,585,130,155	18 / 17
2026-10-01	$8.51	$429,585,130,155	18 / 17
2026-10-02	$8.51	$429,585,130,155	18 / 17
2026-10-03	$8.52	$429,651,912,764	18 / 17
2026-10-04	$8.52	$429,651,912,764	18 / 17
2026-10-05	$8.52	$429,651,912,764	18 / 17
2026-10-06	$8.52	$429,651,912,764	18 / 17
2026-10-07	$8.52	$429,740,685,500	18 / 17
2026-10-08	$8.52	$429,732,598,544	18 / 17
2026-10-09	$8.52	$429,732,598,544	18 / 17
2026-10-10	$8.52	$429,732,598,544	18 / 17
2026-10-11	$8.52	$429,732,598,544	18 / 17
2026-10-12	$8.52	$429,732,598,544	18 / 17
2026-10-13	$8.52	$429,732,598,544	18 / 17
2026-10-14	$8.52	$429,645,661,166	18 / 17
2026-10-15	$8.52	$429,645,661,166	18 / 17

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	25	4
2026-06-01	24	4
2026-07-01	24	4
2026-08-01	24	4
2026-09-01	25	3
2026-10-01	25	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 25 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Leerink PartnersOct 12

$112.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$61.60$123.20

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EPS guidance raised to $7.30 per share in 2026Published status: Broken
Free cash flow at least $9.5 billion in fiscal 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Operating margin near 13.4% in fiscal 2026Published status: Under Pressure
No major drug price controls limiting revenueQualitative condition
Revenue at least $405 billion in fiscal 2026Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

5 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-23.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

CVS Health outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on consistent earnings growth. The current thesis is intact, supported by recent earnings beats and management's commitment to increasing guidance.

What's priced into CVS Health

The market appears to have priced in a neutral valuation, with CVS seen as cheap compared to its peers. There is an expectations gap indicating that the market may not fully reflect the potential for continued earnings growth.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to show continued strength, particularly in revenue and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) growth. However, there is a moderate risk due to potential economic headwinds that could impact performance.

What CVS Health hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on maintaining guidance and managing any potential credibility issues if guidance is cut. Additionally, the performance of sector bellwethers and overall economic conditions will be crucial for CVS's trajectory.