Schrödinger, Inc. (SDGR)

NASDAQHealth CareSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-23

$23.80+5.31%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Schrödinger, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	76.58M
EPS	—	-0.204
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	241.47M
EPS	—	-1.644
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	248.2M
EPS	—	-1.447

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Drug discovery revenue growth to sustain above $22.9M	Schrödinger is growing drug discovery revenue strongly, from $10.2M to $22.9M in Q1 2026.	Intact	drug discovery revenue falls below $22.9 million in any quarter	Drug Discovery unavailable in the latest segment data Last available Drug Discovery revenue: $32.569M in FY2023-Q1. Latest source period is FY2026-Q2; a broader segment cannot substitute for this measure. Source published May 4, 2023Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source Drug Discovery · reported segment FY2023-Q1 · Period ending Mar 31, 2023 Source: stock_segment_revenue. Reference: 2023-Q1. Source status: vendor observation. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Drug discovery revenue increased from $13.9 million in 2025-Q2 to $23.0 million in 2026-Q2, aided by a $10 million milestone from Ajax acquisition. The revenue growth trajectory aligns with management’s stated focus and milestone achievements, indicating delivery. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Progress in transition to hosted software licensing	The company is shifting to hosted software licensing, a strategic move despite short-term revenue decline.	Improving	software revenue declines more than 21% from 2025-Q1 levels persistently	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Hosted software revenue increased from 23% of software revenue in 2025 to 47% in 2026-Q2, reflecting accelerated transition efforts. Management’s recurring emphasis and the rising hosted revenue percentage indicate delivering progress on this transition. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Improvement in EPS losses	A supporting condition in Schrödinger, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS loss narrows vs prior year.	Improving	EPS loss worsens beyond -$2.23 in FY 2026	Diluted EPS: $0.08 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS loss narrows vs prior year. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20260.08 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b7880935-00d7-476b-9a94-76b43129440d. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Total revenue growth near $223 million in FY 2026	A primary condition in Schrödinger, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$223 million.	Improving	annual revenue falls below $218 million in FY 2026	Revenue: $58.889M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$223 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202658,889,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b7880935-00d7-476b-9a94-76b43129440d. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Drug discovery revenue increased from $13.9 million in 2025-Q2 to $23.0 million in 2026-Q2, aided by a $10 million milestone from Ajax acquisition. The revenue growth trajectory aligns with management’s stated focus and milestone achievements, indicating delivery. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$0.27B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$265,148,300	1 / 7
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$265,219,785	3 / 6
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$265,148,300	1 / 7
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$265,148,300	1 / 7
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$265,148,300	1 / 7
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$265,148,300	1 / 7
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$265,148,300	1 / 7
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$265,148,300	1 / 7
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$265,219,785	3 / 5
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$265,148,300	1 / 7
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$265,219,785	3 / 5
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$265,148,300	1 / 7
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$265,219,785	3 / 5
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$265,148,300	1 / 7
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$266,651,980	1 / 7
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$266,652,747	3 / 5
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$266,651,980	1 / 7
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$266,652,747	3 / 5
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$266,651,980	1 / 7
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$266,652,747	3 / 5
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$266,652,747	3 / 5
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$266,652,747	3 / 5
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$266,652,747	3 / 5
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$266,652,747	3 / 5
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$266,652,747	3 / 5
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$250,302,659	3 / 5
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$250,302,659	3 / 5
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$250,302,659	3 / 5
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$250,302,659	3 / 5
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$250,302,659	3 / 5
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$250,302,659	3 / 5
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$250,302,659	3 / 5
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$250,302,659	3 / 5
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$250,302,659	3 / 5
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$250,302,659	3 / 5
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$250,302,659	3 / 5
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$250,302,659	3 / 5
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$250,302,659	3 / 5
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$250,302,659	3 / 5
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$250,302,659	3 / 5
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$250,302,659	3 / 5
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$250,302,659	3 / 5
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$250,302,659	2 / 5
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$250,302,659	2 / 5
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$250,302,659	2 / 5
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$250,302,659	2 / 5
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$250,302,659	3 / 5
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$250,302,659	3 / 5
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$250,302,659	3 / 5
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$250,302,659	3 / 5
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$250,302,659	3 / 5
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$250,302,659	3 / 5
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$250,302,659	3 / 5
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$250,302,659	3 / 5
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$250,302,659	3 / 5
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$250,302,659	3 / 5
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$250,302,659	3 / 5
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$250,302,659	3 / 5
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$250,302,659	3 / 5
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$250,302,659	3 / 5
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$250,302,659	3 / 5
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$250,302,659	3 / 5
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$250,302,659	3 / 5
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$250,302,659	3 / 5
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$250,302,659	3 / 5
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$250,302,659	3 / 5
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$250,302,659	3 / 5
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$250,302,659	3 / 5
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$250,302,659	3 / 5
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$250,302,659	3 / 5
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$250,302,659	3 / 5
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$250,302,659	3 / 5
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$250,302,659	3 / 5
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$250,302,659	3 / 5
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$250,302,659	3 / 5
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$250,302,659	3 / 5
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$250,302,659	3 / 5
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$250,302,659	3 / 5
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$250,302,659	3 / 5
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$250,302,659	3 / 5
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	6	2
2026-06-01	6	2
2026-07-01	6	2
2026-08-01	5	2
2026-09-01	5	2
2026-10-01	5	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Drug discovery revenue growth to sustain above $22.9MDrug Discovery unavailable in the latest segment data
Progress in transition to hosted software licensingDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Improvement in EPS lossesDiluted EPS: $0.08 per share
Total revenue growth near $223 million in FY 2026Revenue: $58.889M

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-50.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Schrödinger, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a loss-making growth business with a durable valuation premium, not an established earnings compounder. Its long-term thesis is in a watch state: management is making progress on hosted software and drug discovery, while recent financial performance remains weak versus its industry cohort.

What's priced into Schrödinger, Inc.

SDGR trades at a durable premium to peers, and the expectations gap is negative, which points to expectations that may be ahead of the evidence. The snapshot labels that premium justified and reports low valuation fragility, but the business remains loss-making.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, hosted software has grown to 47% of software revenue, and drug discovery revenue has risen, with part of that increase aided by an acquisition milestone. Bunsen AI has launched in early access, but there are no direct financial results for it yet. Recent performance is weak, earnings surprises have been erratic and trending down, and a guidance cut is a meaningful risk.

What Schrödinger, Inc. hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued progress in hosted licensing and drug discovery, and whether Bunsen develops into a meaningful product. A guidance cut or worsening employment data could add pressure, while strong results and higher guidance from healthcare sector peers would support the sector backdrop.