Reading RPC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RPC free→Reading RPC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RPC free→NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is robust, indicating that cash backs up reported profits, while risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 25% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, quality intact. Key factors to watch include any guidance cuts from RPC and the performance of sector bellwethers like BLK, BX, and KKR. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $8.38. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $8.46 RPC trades at 9× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $11 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 26% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.91x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.23 → $0.23 (-0.4% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$163.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$423.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,547.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how Ridgepost is doing. Growth is slowing down.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth above 15% year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue growth below 15% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for RPC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Asset Management & Custody Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
RPC Ridgepost Capital, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | fair | elevated |
BLK BlackRock | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BX Blackstone Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 24 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
BNY BNY Mellon | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | full | low |
BK BNY Mellon | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
10 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to declare and pay dividends to shareholders as part of capital allocation strategy.
Focus on meeting the revenue guidance set for the fiscal year 2026.
Improve operating income through strategic initiatives and cost management.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals weakening sector momentum. This could affect Ridgepost's performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median of 15% over the last three years.
Disproves:Revenue growth stays above the median of 15%.
Other Events. On May 7, 2026, Ridgepost Capital announced that its Board of Directors declared a cash dividend of $0.04 per share of its outstanding Class A and Class B common stock, payable on June 18, 2026 to stockholders of record as of the close of business on May 29, 2026.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 17, 2026, Mark Hood notified Ridgepost Capital, Inc. (the “Company”) that he will be retiring as the Company’s Executive Vice President and Chief Administrative Officer effective as of May 31, 2026. On March 19, 2026, in connection with his retirement, the Company and Mr. Hood entered into a separation and release agreement (the “Separatio…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On February 4, 2026, P10 Intermediate Holdings LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (“Purchaser”) and a subsidiary of P10, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), entered into an interest purchase agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”) with certain entities (together, the “Sellers”) affiliated with Stellus Capital Management, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (“Stellus”), and certain direct and indirect equityholders of Stellus, pur…