Reading RDN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RDN free→Reading RDN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RDN free→NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been volatile, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Risk is moderate, and compared with sector peers, RDN trades above typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 28% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile. If RDN cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $34.55. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $35 RDN trades at 8× p/e, below its 11× p/e peer median. Our $48 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $39–$47. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 29% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 10%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.60x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.26 → $1.37 (+8.6% / 30d). 4 raised, 0 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 26.3% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$104.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$218.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,434.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Maintaining the dividend shows financial health. A cut could worry investors.
Confirms:The company declares a dividend of $0.255 per share.
Disproves:The company announces a reduction in the dividend per share.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for RDN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (e) Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers Approval of Radian Group Inc. 2021 Equity Compensation Plan On May 21, 2026, stockholders of Radian Group Inc. (“Radian” or the “Company”) approved the Radian Group Inc. 2026 Equity Compensation Plan (the “2026 Equity Compensation Plan” or “Plan”). The Plan is described in Proposal 3 in the Company’…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$39.00 – $47.00 (median $40.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-22
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Property & Casualty Insurance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
RDN Radian Group, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
CB Chubb Limited | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | full | moderate |
PGR Progressive Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TRV Travelers Companies (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | full | low |
ALL Allstate | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Radian aims to complete the divestiture of its Mortgage Conduit, Title, and Real Estate Services businesses by the end of Q3 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Radian is actively pursuing the divestiture of its non-core businesses, with ongoing discussions with potential buyers. The financials show a reduction in assets held for sale from $474 million in 2025-Q4 to $280 million in 2026-Q1, indicating progress in this area. The trajectory shows limited progress, with the divestiture plan still in process.
“Radian made the decision to wind down its Mortgage Conduit business.”
“The Company is engaged in active discussions with potential acquirers.”
Radian continues to prioritize maintaining its dividend per share at $0.255, reflecting its commitment to returning capital to shareholders.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Radian has consistently maintained its dividend per share at $0.255, reflecting a stable capital allocation strategy. The financials confirm this with a dividend payment of $35 million in 2026-Q1. The trajectory is delivering as planned.
Radian aims to increase cash generated from operating activities, enhancing liquidity and financial flexibility.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Cash from operating activities increased significantly from $68 million in 2025-Q1 to $285 million in 2026-Q1, indicating strong operational cash flow improvements. The trajectory is delivering on the stated priority.
“Cash from operating activities increased to $285 million.”
Ensure net income remains stable across reporting periods.
Why it matters: Earnings will show how well Radian is managing in a slowing growth environment.
Confirms one read:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth above 12% year over year.
Confirms the other:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial strength and care for shareholders.
Confirms:Radian pays a dividend of $0.255 per share for two consecutive quarters.
Disproves:Radian cuts the dividend below $0.255 per share in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key driver for the sector. A drop could signal a slowdown.
Confirms:Revenue growth remains above the median of 13% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth drops below the median of 13% year over year.
Why it matters: Increasing cash flow is vital for growth. A decrease could signal trouble.
Confirms:Cash from operations is up from last quarter.
Disproves:Cash from operations is down from last quarter.
Why it matters: Eric Ray will retire on July 1, 2026. This may affect Radian's digital strategy.
Confirms one read:A new Chief Digital Officer was announced. They have a strong digital strategy.
Confirms the other:There was no news about a successor or unclear plans for digital projects.
Why it matters: The Inigo acquisition is key to Radian's growth. Revenue changes will show its effectiveness.
Confirms:Total revenue for Q2 is over $500 million. This shows Inigo is integrating well.
Disproves:Total revenue for Q2 is under $450 million. This suggests there are integration problems.
Why it matters: Defaults show how healthy the mortgage segment is and how well risks are managed.
Confirms:Primary loans in default increase to over 3% of total loans.
Disproves:Primary loans in default decrease to below 2.3% of total loans.
Why it matters: Stable net income is a priority. A decline could signal deeper issues.
Confirms:Q2 net income remains stable or improves compared to Q1.
Disproves:Q2 net income declines year over year.
Why it matters: Radian's adjusted net operating income per share is growing. This shows that their acquisition strategy is working.
Confirms:Q2 adjusted net operating income per share increases year over year by more than 20%.
Disproves:Q2 adjusted net operating income per share growth is less than 10% year over year.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 21, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “ Board ”) of Radian Group Inc. (“ Radian ” or the “ Company ”) approved the appointment of Michael Weinbach, 52, as CEO-Elect, effective June 1, 2026, and subsequently as Chief Executive Officer and as a member of the Board, both effective August 13, 2026. As CEO-Elect, Mr. Weinbach will perform all dut…
of, or furnished with, this report shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”), nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933 or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Future Departure of Executive Officer On April 20, 2026, Eric R. Ray, Senior Executive Vice President, Chief Digital Officer of Radian Group Inc. (the “Company”) provided the Company with notice of his decision to retire from his role and the Company, effective July 1, 2026. Mr. Ray’s decision to retire is not the result of any disagreement with th…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers As described in the Original Form 8-K, effective February 12, 2026, Daniel Kobell was appointed Senior Executive Vice President, Interim Chief Financial Officer. In connection with his Interim Chief Financial Officer appointment, on March 30, 2026, the Compensation and Human Capital Management Committee of the Board of Directors of the Company appro…
“Radian Group paid a dividend on its common stock in the amount of $0.255 per share.”
“Radian Group paid a dividend on its common stock in the amount of $0.255 per share.”
“Radian Group paid a dividend on its common stock in the amount of $0.255 per share.”
“Radian Group paid a dividend on its common stock in the amount of $0.255 per share.”
“Cash from operating activities was $407 million.”
“Cash from operating activities was $358 million.”