Radian Group, Inc. (RDN)

NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-10-23

$35.75+3.03%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Radian Group, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	602.68M
EPS	—	1.23
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	2.2B
EPS	—	4.833
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	2.37B
EPS	—	5.153

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Complete divestiture of non-core businesses by Q3 2026	Radian aims to finish selling non-core businesses by Q3 2026.	Intact	Divestiture not completed by Q3 2026	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain dividend per share at $0.255	It keeps paying a dividend of $0.255 per share.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.255	Dividend per share: $0.26 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Dividend per share >= $0.255. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 7, 20260.255 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1da889c1-8124-4a8f-9cf6-99820a2b35d2. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Dividend per share has been consistently maintained at $0.255 from 2025-Q2 through 2026-Q2, demonstrating management's commitment to stable capital return to stockholders. The trajectory is delivering as promised. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Achieve EPS of $4.45 for full year 2026	Earnings per share are guided at $4.45 for full year 2026.	Broken	EPS falls below $4.45 in 2026	Diluted EPS: $0.85 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS = $4.45. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 20260.85 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1da889c1-8124-4a8f-9cf6-99820a2b35d2. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Increase cash from operating activities to $285 million in Q1 2026	Cash from operations rose to $285 million in Q1 2026.	Intact	Cash from operations falls below $285 million	Cash from operations: $627.957M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Cash from operations >= $285 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 7, 2026627,957,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Cash from operating activities was negative $713M in 2025-Q2 but improved significantly to $343M in 2026-Q2, reflecting a strong recovery in operating cash flow. Management's focus on liquidity and capital is showing delivering progress. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$5.49 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$5.49	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-25	$5.49	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-26	$5.49	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-27	$5.49	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-28	$5.49	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-29	$5.49	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-07-31	$5.49	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-02	$5.49	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-03	$5.49	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-04	$5.49	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-09	$5.43	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-10	$5.43	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-12	$5.25	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	4	3
2026-06-01	4	2
2026-07-01	4	2
2026-08-01	4	1
2026-09-01	5	1
2026-10-01	5	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Complete divestiture of non-core businesses by Q3 2026Qualitative condition
Maintain dividend per share at $0.255Dividend per share: $0.26 per share
Achieve EPS of $4.45 for full year 2026Published status: Broken
Increase cash from operating activities to $285 million in Q1 2026Cash from operations: $627.957M

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-22.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Radian Group, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is an insurer in strategic expansion, not a steady-growth story at present. The long-term thesis is on watch: expansion is progressing, but recent performance has lagged its industry cohort and management has been volatile.

What's priced into Radian Group, Inc.

RDN is described as cheap versus peers, while the pricing evidence suggests expectations are relatively low. The valuation model has medium confidence, and there are no flagged signs of unusually concentrated fragility.

What the fundamentals likely do

Over the multi-year view, expansion into specialty insurance has supported higher revenue, while primary mortgage insurance in force also increased. Near term, results are mixed: RDN missed its most recent quarter and has missed across recent quarters, though the estimated miss risk is low; the non-core business divestiture remains under watch.

What Radian Group, Inc. hinges on

A guidance cut at the next call would add to concerns, and the evidence flags lower rates as a sector headwind. Continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum, while execution on expansion and the planned divestiture remain important company-specific factors.