Reading PSNL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PSNL free→Reading PSNL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PSNL free→NASDAQHealth CareDiagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, PSNL is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 62% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. Rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. If PSNL cuts guidance on the next call, that’s a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $9.59. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $9.59, PSNL's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 14× p/s (3.6× the 4× p/s peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~63% near-term growth vs our ~-22% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $5.87 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 63% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -22%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated weak grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=2391).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.83x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.27 → $-0.26 (+3.8% / 30d). 3 raised, 2 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 86% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$370.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$946.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,520.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This report will show if Personalis can improve its financial performance. Investors will look for signs of recovery.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows revenue growth is speeding up again. It is moving back to earlier highs.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows continued revenue decline or losses.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PSNL yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Personalis, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The full text of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Life Sciences Tools & Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PSNL Personalis, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 7 of 100 | expensive | high |
TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | fair | moderate |
DHR Danaher Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | fair | moderate |
A Agilent Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | full | moderate |
WAT Waters Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | fair | moderate |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=618).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing clinical volume adoption ahead of full reimbursement coverage to establish market share.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue declined from $17.3M in 2025-Q4 to $15.5M in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress in achieving higher clinical volume adoption. The focus remains on establishing market share, but financial results show a need for improvement.
“Personalis aims to accelerate clinical volume adoption to establish market share.”
“Strategic decision to accelerate clinical volume adoption ahead of full reimbursement.”
Reaffirmed revenue guidance for the full year 2026 in the range of $78M to $80M.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue declined from $17.3M in 2025-Q4 to $15.5M in 2026-Q1, indicating challenges in meeting the full-year guidance of $78M to $80M. The trajectory shows a need for improvement to achieve the target.
Projected cash usage of approximately $100M in 2026 driven by commercial investments.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company projects cash usage of approximately $100M in 2026, driven by commercial investments. With operating cash flow at -$22.5M in 2026-Q1, the trajectory suggests significant cash outflows, aligning with the stated priority.
“Cash usage of approximately $100M driven by commercial investments.”
Why it matters: The health care sector is slowing. If revenue growth re-accelerates, it could help Personalis.
Confirms:Health care sector revenue growth shows a return to near 10 percent.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth continues to decline or remains below 10 percent.
Departure of Directors or Principal Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Principal Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 13, 2026, the board of directors (the “Board”) of Personalis, Inc. (the “Company”), based in part on the recommendation of Christopher Hall, the Company’s Chief Executive Officer, appointed Richard Chen as the Company’s President, in addition to his roles as the Company’s Executive Vice President, R&D, and Chief Medical Officer. Mr. Ha…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 26, 2026, Personalis, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2025. The full text of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Ac…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 8, 2026, Personalis, Inc. issued a press release announcing certain preliminary financial and operational results for the quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2025. The full text of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18…
Other Events. On November 28, 2025, Personalis, Inc. (the “Company”) filed a prospectus supplement to the prospectus (the “Prospectus Supplement”) included in the Company’s shelf registration statement on Form S-3 (Registration No. 333-276204) (the “Registration Statement”), relating to the offer and sale of up to $100,000,000 of shares of the Company’s common stock (the “Shares”) pursuant to that certain Amended and Restated At-the-Market Sales Agreement, dated December 27, 2024, by and amon…
“Personalis reaffirmed revenue guidance for 2026: $78M to $80M.”
“Full year 2026 revenue guidance of $78 to $80 million.”