Personalis, Inc. (PSNL)

NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-10-23

$15.85+0.19%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Personalis, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	24.97M
EPS	—	-0.24
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	83M
Revenue from population sequencing and enterprise revenue	About $13M	—
EPS	—	-1.093
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	109.74M
EPS	—	-0.99

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Accelerate clinical volume adoption ahead of full reimbursement	A supporting condition in Personalis, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Sustain volume growth to support revenue targets.	Intact	Clinical volume growth stalls or declines over next 4 quarters	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Clinical test volume grew from approximately 2,184 tests in 2025-Q1 to 10,384 tests in 2026-Q2, a 199% year-over-year increase in Q2 and 258% in Q1. Clinical revenue is expected to increase more than 500% over last year. The trajectory is delivering strong growth consistent with management's stated goal. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain gross margin near 17.5% in 2026	The company targets gross margins near 17.5% next year.	Intact	Gross margin falls below 15% in FY26	Gross margin: 21.21% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 17.5%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 202621.214832 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Reaffirmed in 3 of last 3 quarters. Quarterly revenue grew from $15.5 million in 2026-Q1 to $22.4 million in 2026-Q2. Management maintains full year 2026 revenue guidance of $78 to $80 million. The trajectory is consistent with management's guidance reaffirmations. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Achieve full-year 2026 revenue of $78M to $80M	A primary condition in Personalis, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$79M.	Broken	Annual revenue falls below $75M in FY26	Revenue: $22.357M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$79M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 202622,357,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: db73e47e-8d90-463e-837c-d5711406f4b2. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Reaffirmed in 3 of last 3 quarters. Quarterly revenue grew from $15.5 million in 2026-Q1 to $22.4 million in 2026-Q2. Management maintains full year 2026 revenue guidance of $78 to $80 million. The trajectory is consistent with management's guidance reaffirmations. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$-0.91 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$0.11B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-0.91	$109,315,790	7 / 7
2026-07-25	$-0.89	$110,318,421	5 / 5
2026-07-26	$-0.91	$109,315,790	7 / 7
2026-07-27	$-0.91	$109,315,790	7 / 7
2026-07-28	$-0.91	$109,315,790	7 / 7
2026-07-29	$-0.91	$109,315,790	7 / 7
2026-07-30	$-0.89	$110,318,421	5 / 5
2026-07-31	$-0.89	$110,318,421	5 / 5
2026-08-01	$-0.89	$110,318,421	5 / 5
2026-08-02	$-0.91	$109,315,790	7 / 7
2026-08-03	$-0.91	$109,315,790	7 / 7
2026-08-04	$-0.89	$110,318,421	5 / 5
2026-08-05	$-0.91	$109,315,790	7 / 7
2026-08-06	$-0.89	$110,318,421	5 / 5
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$111,351,755	4 / 5
2026-08-08	$-0.90	$110,201,500	6 / 7
2026-08-09	$-0.90	$110,201,500	6 / 7
2026-08-10	$-0.90	$110,201,500	6 / 7
2026-08-12	$-0.94	$110,201,500	7 / 7
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$111,351,755	4 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$111,351,755	4 / 5
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$111,351,755	4 / 5
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$111,351,755	4 / 5
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$111,351,755	4 / 5
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$111,351,755	4 / 5
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$111,351,755	4 / 5
2026-08-20	$-0.94	$110,002,106	5 / 5
2026-08-21	$-0.94	$110,001,506	5 / 5
2026-08-22	$-0.94	$110,001,506	5 / 5
2026-08-23	$-0.94	$110,001,506	5 / 5
2026-08-24	$-0.94	$110,001,506	5 / 5
2026-08-25	$-0.94	$109,933,126	5 / 5
2026-08-26	$-0.94	$109,933,126	5 / 5
2026-08-27	$-0.94	$109,933,126	5 / 5
2026-08-28	$-0.94	$109,933,126	5 / 5
2026-08-29	$-0.94	$109,933,126	5 / 5
2026-08-30	$-0.94	$109,933,126	5 / 5
2026-08-31	$-0.94	$109,933,126	5 / 5
2026-09-01	$-0.94	$109,933,126	5 / 5
2026-09-02	$-0.94	$109,933,126	5 / 5
2026-09-03	$-0.94	$109,933,126	5 / 5
2026-09-04	$-0.94	$109,933,126	5 / 5
2026-09-05	$-0.94	$109,933,126	5 / 5
2026-09-06	$-0.94	$109,933,126	5 / 5
2026-09-07	$-0.94	$109,933,126	5 / 5
2026-09-08	$-0.94	$109,933,126	5 / 5
2026-09-09	$-0.94	$109,933,126	5 / 5
2026-09-10	$-0.94	$109,933,126	5 / 5
2026-09-11	$-0.94	$109,933,126	5 / 5
2026-09-12	$-0.94	$109,933,126	5 / 5
2026-09-13	$-0.94	$109,933,126	5 / 5
2026-09-14	$-0.94	$109,933,126	5 / 5
2026-09-15	$-0.94	$109,933,126	5 / 5
2026-09-16	$-0.94	$109,933,126	5 / 5
2026-09-17	$-0.94	$109,933,126	5 / 5
2026-09-18	$-0.94	$109,933,126	5 / 5
2026-09-19	$-0.94	$109,933,126	5 / 5
2026-09-20	$-0.94	$109,933,126	5 / 5
2026-09-21	$-0.94	$109,933,126	5 / 5
2026-09-22	$-0.94	$109,933,126	5 / 5
2026-09-23	$-0.94	$109,933,126	5 / 5
2026-09-24	$-0.94	$109,933,126	5 / 5
2026-09-25	$-0.94	$109,933,126	5 / 5
2026-09-26	$-0.94	$109,933,126	5 / 5
2026-09-27	$-0.94	$109,933,126	5 / 5
2026-09-28	$-0.94	$109,933,126	5 / 5
2026-09-29	$-0.94	$109,933,126	5 / 5
2026-09-30	$-0.94	$109,933,126	5 / 5
2026-10-01	$-0.94	$109,933,126	5 / 5
2026-10-02	$-0.94	$109,933,126	5 / 5
2026-10-03	$-0.94	$109,933,126	5 / 5
2026-10-04	$-0.94	$109,933,126	5 / 5
2026-10-05	$-0.94	$109,933,126	5 / 5
2026-10-06	$-0.94	$109,933,126	5 / 5
2026-10-07	$-0.94	$109,933,726	5 / 5
2026-10-08	$-0.94	$109,933,726	5 / 5
2026-10-09	$-0.94	$109,933,726	5 / 5
2026-10-10	$-0.94	$109,933,726	5 / 5
2026-10-11	$-0.94	$109,933,726	5 / 5
2026-10-12	$-0.94	$109,933,726	5 / 5
2026-10-13	$-0.94	$109,933,726	5 / 5
2026-10-14	$-0.94	$109,933,726	5 / 5
2026-10-15	$-0.94	$109,933,726	5 / 5
2026-10-16	$-0.94	$109,933,726	5 / 5
2026-10-17	$-0.94	$109,933,726	5 / 5
2026-10-18	$-0.94	$109,933,726	5 / 5
2026-10-19	$-0.94	$109,933,726	5 / 5
2026-10-20	$-0.94	$109,933,726	5 / 5
2026-10-21	$-0.94	$109,933,726	5 / 5
2026-10-22	$-0.94	$109,933,726	5 / 5
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$109,739,525	4 / 5
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	6	1
2026-06-01	6	1
2026-07-01	6	2
2026-08-01	4	3
2026-09-01	2	3
2026-10-01	2	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Accelerate clinical volume adoption ahead of full reimbursementQualitative condition
Maintain gross margin near 17.5% in 2026Gross margin: 21.21%
Achieve full-year 2026 revenue of $78M to $80MPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-55.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Personalis, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a high-risk growth business, not yet a durable compounder, because it is loss-making and recent financial performance is weak. The long-term thesis is on watch: clinical volume adoption is progressing, but recent earnings misses and results below the industry cohort leave execution unproven.

What's priced into Personalis, Inc.

The valuation model labels expectations as justified, but its confidence is low. PSNL trades at a substantial premium to peers, with optionality as the main valuation driver and a negative expectations gap, suggesting the market gives weight to future growth while leaving limited room for disappointment.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, clinical test volumes and revenue have grown, and management has reaffirmed its 2026 revenue guidance; cash use is broadly tracking its stated plan. However, the company remains loss-making, has missed recent earnings, and is expected to use about $100 million in cash during 2026, so guidance delivery and cash discipline remain important.

What Personalis, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on clinical volume growth translating into sustained revenue growth while management maintains guidance and controls cash use. Near term, another guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data would add pressure, while continued strength from healthcare sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop.