Reading PLMR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PLMR free→Reading PLMR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PLMR free→NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Earnings quality is robust, indicating that cash backs up reported profits, while risk is elevated due to a challenging sector backdrop that is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 31% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, priced roughly in line with peer multiples. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact PLMR's performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $114.07. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $115 the market pays 15× p/e — above the 11× p/e peer median but in line with its own 21× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $86 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 31% near-term growth, below our forecast of about 48%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.87x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.21 → $2.25 (+2.0% / 30d). 4 raised, 2 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 88% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$152.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$366.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,751.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Active buybacks could raise earnings per share. This may show management's confidence.
Confirms:Company repurchases at least $50 million worth of shares under the new $200 million plan.
Disproves:No share repurchases reported in the next quarter.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PLMR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 21, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Palomar Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) appointed Scott Beiser as a Class I director of the Company effective immediately, to serve until the Company’s 2029 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, and until his successor has been duly elected and qualified, or until his earlier death, resignation or r…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Property & Casualty Insurance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PLMR Palomar Holdings, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 40 of 100 | full | elevated |
CB Chubb Limited | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | full | moderate |
PGR Progressive Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TRV Travelers Companies (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | fair | low |
ALL Allstate | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Palomar Holdings plans to repurchase up to $200 million of its outstanding shares over two years.
Palomar Holdings aims to increase its revenue growth consistently over the quarters.
Palomar Holdings is committed to maintaining strong operating income levels.
Why it matters: Strong operating income is important for making money. It shows how well the company controls costs.
Confirms:Operating income in Q2 stays at or above $53.5 million. This shows stability.
Disproves:Operating income drops below $53.5 million. This suggests there may be cost issues.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key for the company’s future. It shows how well the business is doing.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported above 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Slower growth may show weaker demand or more competition in the market.
Confirms:Gross written premiums growth reported below 30% year over year.
Disproves:Gross written premiums growth remains above 40% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could signal broader economic challenges. It may affect Palomar's performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth falls below its median. This may mean a slowdown is coming.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth stays above its median. This suggests the sector remains strong.
Why it matters: Changes in guidance may show shifts in profit expectations for the year.
Confirms one read:Adjusted net income guidance raised above $278 million for 2026.
Confirms the other:Guidance lowered below $262 million for 2026.
Why it matters: A higher combined ratio means worse underwriting performance. It can also lead to lower profits.
Confirms:Look for a combined ratio above 85% in the next earnings report.
Disproves:Combined ratio remains below 80% in the next earnings release.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, Palomar Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information contained under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise s…
Other Events. On April 30, 2026, the Company’s Board of Directors approved the adoption of a share repurchase plan (the “Plan”), effective May 6, 2026, that authorizes the purchase of up to $200 million of the outstanding shares of Company common stock, as conditions warrant, with a term of two years from the effective date. Upon the effectiveness of the Plan, the Company’s existing share repurchase plan was terminated. Attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 is the press release issued by the Compan…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 11, 2026, Palomar Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information contained under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or ot…
by reference. On the Closing Date, the Company completed the Transaction pursuant to the Purchase Agreement and acquired all of the issued and outstanding equity interests of Target. Pursuant to the Purchase Agreement, the Company paid approximately $311 million (the “Purchase Price”) in cash in connection with the Transaction. The Purchase Price was funded with the proceeds from the Term Loan and cash on hand. The summary description of the terms of the Purchase Agreement, including the desc…