Palomar Holdings, Inc. (PLMR)

NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-10-23

$141.78-1.90%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Palomar Holdings, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	602.5M
EPS	—	2.844
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	2.62B
EPS	—	10.047
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	3.13B
EPS	—	11.222

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Operating income near $53.5M	It keeps profit near $53.5M.	Intact	Operating income falls below $53M next year	Operating income: $69.803M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=53M operating income. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202669,803,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows about 31% yearly	Palomar grows revenue fast, about 31% yearly.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 30.9% in FY26	Revenue growth: 54.65% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=30.9% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202654.651249 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 40b4841a-603e-4115-96ff-a921946c737c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Complete $200M share repurchase plan	A supporting condition in Palomar Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Repurchase $200M shares over two years.	Intact	Buyback plan is not executed or is canceled	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The Board authorized a $200 million share repurchase program in 2026-Q1, replacing the prior plan. The Company repurchased 190,255 shares for $23.1 million in 2026-Q1 and 368,700 shares for $41.0 million in 2026-Q2. Management is delivering disciplined capital allocation through active share repurchases. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$11.14 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$11.14	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-07-25	$11.14	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-07-26	$11.14	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-07-27	$11.04	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-28	$11.14	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-07-29	$11.14	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-02	$11.14	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-06	$11.14	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-08	$11.30	Unavailable	6 / 2
2026-08-09	$11.30	Unavailable	6 / 2
2026-08-10	$11.30	Unavailable	6 / 2
2026-08-12	$11.29	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-13	$11.29	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-20	$11.30	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-21	$11.30	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-22	$11.30	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-23	$11.30	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-24	$11.30	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-25	$11.30	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-26	$11.30	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-27	$11.30	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-28	$11.30	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-29	$11.30	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-30	$11.30	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-31	$11.30	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-01	$11.30	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-02	$11.30	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-03	$11.30	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-04	$11.30	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-05	$11.30	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-06	$11.30	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-07	$11.30	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-08	$11.30	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-09	$11.30	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-10	$11.30	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-11	$11.30	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-12	$11.30	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-13	$11.30	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-14	$11.30	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-15	$11.33	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-16	$11.33	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-17	$11.33	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-18	$11.33	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-19	$11.33	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-20	$11.33	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-21	$11.33	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-22	$11.33	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-23	$11.33	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-24	$11.33	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-25	$11.33	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-26	$11.33	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-27	$11.33	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-28	$11.33	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-29	$11.33	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-30	$11.33	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-01	$11.33	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-02	$11.33	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-03	$11.33	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-04	$11.33	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-05	$11.33	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-06	$11.27	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-07	$11.27	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-08	$11.27	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-09	$11.27	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-10	$11.27	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-11	$11.27	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-12	$11.27	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	7	1
2026-06-01	7	1
2026-07-01	7	1
2026-08-01	7	1
2026-09-01	7	1
2026-10-01	7	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Operating income near $53.5MOperating income: $69.803M
Revenue grows about 31% yearlyRevenue growth: 54.65%
Complete $200M share repurchase planDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-26.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Palomar Holdings, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

PLMR is a growth-oriented insurer whose thesis depends on continuing to expand earnings while maintaining strong returns on equity, a measure of profit relative to shareholder capital. Recent results support that view, and management’s earnings-growth priority is on track. The thesis is intact, though confidence has eased to medium.

What's priced into Palomar Holdings, Inc.

PLMR is valued at a substantial premium to peers, which the evidence links to durable growth expectations. The pricing is tagged as justified, but the estimated expectations gap is negative and confidence in that estimate is low. In plain terms, the valuation leaves meaningful expectations to meet, even though the evidence does not flag high fragility.

What the fundamentals likely do

Over the multi-year view, adjusted net income has grown and management’s 2026 guidance points to further growth; adjusted returns on equity have also stayed above 20%. Near term, the earnings-miss risk is assessed as low, but a past deep miss and a downward trend in earnings surprises warrant attention. A reversal of recently raised guidance would weaken credibility, while a headwind for the Financials sector adds risk.

What Palomar Holdings, Inc. hinges on

The thesis hinges on management continuing to deliver its earnings-growth plan without reversing guidance, and on maintaining strong returns. It also depends in part on interest rates and sector conditions: rate cuts are flagged as a headwind, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from major insurers could support sector momentum. The new dividend program is only newly introduced, so evidence on its consistency is limited.