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Track PLAY free→Dave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc. (PLAY)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$11.55-6.25%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is not assessable since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 88% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, particularly how major players in the Communication Services sector perform. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Industry
- Entertainment
- Market cap
- $449.18M
- Employees
- 23,610
- IPO date
- 2011-07-15
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $11.55. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$94.43consensus
Range $94.43 – $94.43
vs price: -88% below
Method agreement — · 1 method
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$95.94consensus
Range $95.94 – $95.94
vs price: -88% below
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $12 PLAY trades at 0× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $92 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $12–$22. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
0.2x
peer 1.4x · own history —
Premium
0.1x peer
Growth the price needs
-88%
our forecast 2%
Our fair value
$91.70
range $91.70 – $91.70
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is above the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — value-trap risk12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 88% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Communication Services names rated neutral grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=902).
55th pctl · Communication Services
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted -4.77x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
neutral5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Communication Services names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 63% for the rest of the cohort, n=271).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearishEPS revised -45.4% / 30d, n=7for period ending 2026-07-31
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.60 → $0.33 (-45.4% / 30d). 0 raised, 4 cut, 7 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 2 maintained. 40% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 38.0% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: is in (~0.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-16
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$320.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$703.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $7,184.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
highas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- earnings refresh · company_momentum_scoresmall change
Company momentum rose by 15.7 points (from -79.9 to -64.2) after fresh earnings.
As of June 16, 2026, company momentum rose. The sector backdrop remains a headwind. Risk is high. The overall financial performance is neutral.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayMedium confidenceWeeksactive 4d
Watch for Q2 earnings results on June 15, 2026
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company is improving or still losing money.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows a profit or reduced losses compared to last quarter.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows losses greater than last quarter.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-161d agoSeeking Alpha
Advances: Generate over $100M in free cash flow
Targets over $100M in free cash flow for FY2026.
Strongly reinforcesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth cooling below 10% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like NFLX, DIS, and WBD keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Communication Services sector momentum should keep lifting PLAY and other Communication Services names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for PLAY and other Communication Services names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If PLAY raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-06-15), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If PLAY cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-06-15), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like NFLX, DIS, and WBD start missing or guiding lower, the Communication Services tailwind helping PLAY and other Communication Services names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-152d agoItem 2.02
of this Current Report on Form 8-K shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document filed pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. On June 15, 2026, Dave & Buster’s Entertainment, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing results its first quarter 2026 results. A copy of this Press Release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. Section 9 – Financial Statements and Exhibits
Earnings preannouncementnegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+2.4 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.