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Sphere Entertainment (SPHR)
NYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-06-15
Watch· this month
$154.51+0.82%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been steady, while risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, SPHR trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 207% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. If sector bellwethers like NFLX, DIS, and WBD keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Communication Services sector momentum should keep lifting SPHR and other Communication Services names. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Industry
- Entertainment
- Market cap
- $5.49B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2020-05-18
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $154.51. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$53.46consensus
Range $46.98 – $92.06
vs price: +189% above
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearexpensive
$104.19consensus
Range $104.19 – $104.19
vs price: +48% above
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Optionality premiumlow confidence
At $155, SPHR's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 36× p/e (3.0× the 12× p/e peer median, and 1.0× even its own history). At a normal multiple the price implies ~189% near-term growth vs our ~-18% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $53 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $159–$190. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
35.9x
peer 12.0x · own history 36.7x
Premium
3.0x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
189%
our forecast -18%
Our fair value
$53.46
range $51.26 – $89.03
Analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiverich12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 189% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -18%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Communication Services names rated neutral grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=902).
44th pctl · Communication Services
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 3.12x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Communication Services names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=690).
64th pctl · Communication Services
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
stableEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearishEPS revised -39.0% / 30d, n=2for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $-0.86 → $-1.20 (-39.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 92% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: communication services is in declining, with may be transitioning (~0.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Mature by revenue growth · theme streaming/OTT.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutralProvisional
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-15
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$200.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$392.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,766.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- score change · valuation_scorebig change
Valuation rose by 44.8 points (from 18.8 to 63.6).
- score change · composite_insight_scoremoderate change
Composite insight rose by 16.8 points (from -11.7 to 5.1).
- label change · signal_labelsmall change
Signal changed from 'cautious' to 'mixed'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 11d
Watch for Q2 revenue growth below 5%
Why it matters: Lower revenue growth means management may face challenges in reaching their growth goals.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported above 5% year over year.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SPHR yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth cooling below 10% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like NFLX, DIS, and WBD keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Communication Services sector momentum should keep lifting SPHR and other Communication Services names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for SPHR and other Communication Services names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If SPHR beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a big beat of +92% on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like NFLX, DIS, and WBD start missing or guiding lower, the Communication Services tailwind helping SPHR and other Communication Services names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits SPHR and other Communication Services names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-051mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026 , Sphere Entertainment Co. (the “Company”) announced its financial results for its first quarter ended March 31, 2026 . A copy of the press release containing the announcement is included as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exch…
Earnings preannouncementpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+11 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.