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NASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been neutral, and the company has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, suggesting challenges ahead. Peer multiples imply a price about 115% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $78.72. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $82 the market pays 26× p/e — above the 19× p/e peer median but in line with its own 356× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $37 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $96–$135. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 123% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 24%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality. Capped at elevated by the Crisis regime.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Communication Services names rated strong grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=701).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.95x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Communication Services names rated fragile grew net income 43% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=525).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.79 → $0.79 (+0.0% / 30d). 4 raised, 23 cut, 35 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 74% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$104.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$350.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,335.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Hitting this growth target shows strong demand for Netflix. It can attract more subscribers.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth of 13% or more compared to the same quarter last year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth falls below 12% compared to the same quarter last year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Copyright issues could impact financial performance.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 16, 2026, Netflix, Inc. (the “Company”) announced its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The Letter to Shareholders, which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference, includes reference to the non-GAAP financial information. A reconciliation to the GAAP equivalent of non-GAAP measures is contained in tabular form in Exhibit 99.1. We are not able to reconcile forward-looking non-GAAP fi…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$96.00 – $135.00 (median $115.00) · 11 analysts · as of 2026-04-17
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Movies & Entertainment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NFLX Netflix | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
DIS Walt Disney Company (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
LYV Live Nation Entertainment | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 31 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
TKO TKO Group Holdings | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 54 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ROKU Roku Inc | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
12 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Communication Services names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 63% for the rest of the cohort, n=271).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLC
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Targeting an increase in free cash flow to $12.5 billion for the fiscal year 2026.
Aim to maintain an operating margin of 31.5% for the fiscal year 2026.
The Board authorized an additional $25 billion share repurchase program.
Why it matters: Keeping this margin shows Netflix is managing costs well. This affects how much money they make.
Confirms:Q2 operating margin was 31.5% or more.
Disproves:Q2 operating margin was below 30%.
Why it matters: A strong buyback program shows that Netflix is financially strong.
Confirms:Netflix announces it has completed at least $5 billion in share buybacks.
Disproves:No major share buybacks reported in the next six months.
Why it matters: This vote is key for completing the acquisition. It affects Netflix's growth and market position.
Confirms:WBD stockholders vote to approve the all-cash transaction with Netflix.
Disproves:WBD stockholders reject the transaction or delay the vote beyond April 2026.
Why it matters: Achieving this target would show Netflix's strong financial health and ability to invest in growth.
Confirms:Free cash flow reported at or above $12.5B for the fiscal year 2026.
Disproves:Free cash flow reported below $11B for the fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: Progress on this plan could show management believes in the company's value and cash flow.
Confirms:They announced share buybacks under the $25 billion plan.
Disproves:No updates or delays in the share buyback plan.
New chairman may enhance strategic focus on growth.
Accusations from Paramount could affect market position.
AI tools may significantly improve content management.
New rules could increase operational costs.
Other Events. On April 22, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Netflix, Inc. (the “Company”) authorized the repurchase of an additional $25 billion of the Company’s common stock, in addition to the repurchase program authorized in December 2024, each without an expiration date. The Company had approximately $6.8 billion available for repurchase as of March 31, 2026 under the Company’s December 2024 share repurchase authorization. Stock repurchases may be effected through open market…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 10, 2026, Reed Hastings informed the Company of his decision to not stand for re-election as a director at the Company’s 2026 annual meeting of stockholders (the “Annual Meeting”). Mr. Hastings’ current term will expire at the Annual Meeting. He will continue to serve as a director and Chairman of the Board until the Annual Meeting. Mr. Ha…
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. As previously disclosed, on January 19, 2026, Netflix, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“Netflix”), Nightingale Sub, Inc., a Delaware corporation and wholly owned subsidiary of Netflix (“Merger Sub”), Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“WBD”), and New Topco 25, Inc., a newly formed Delaware corporation and wholly owned subsidiary of WBD (“Newco”), entered into an Amended and Restated Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “Merger Agre…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 20, 2026, Netflix, Inc. (the “Company”) announced its financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. The Letter to Shareholders, which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference, includes reference to the non-GAAP financial information. A reconciliation to the GAAP equivalent of non-GAAP measures is contained in tabular form in Exhibit 99.1. We are not able to reconcile forward-looking non-GA…