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Netflix (NFLX)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$78.72-3.61%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been neutral, and the company has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, suggesting challenges ahead. Peer multiples imply a price about 115% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This analysis is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Industry
- Entertainment
- Market cap
- $343.90B
- Employees
- 16,000
- IPO date
- 2002-05-23
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-16
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $78.72. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$36.61consensus
Range $23.39 – $54.47
vs price: +115% above
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfull
$66.05consensus
Range $38.49 – $109.93
vs price: +19% above
Method agreement — · 4 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiumlow confidence
At $82 the market pays 26× p/e — above the 19× p/e peer median but in line with its own 356× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $37 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $96–$135. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
26.3x
peer 19.1x · own history 356.1x
Premium
1.4x peer
0.1x its own history
Growth the price needs
123%
our forecast 24%
Our fair value
$36.68
range $23.18 – $55.34
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiverich12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 123% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 24%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Elevated fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality. Capped at elevated by the Crisis regime.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Communication Services names rated strong grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=701).
83rd pctl · Communication Services
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 0.95x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Communication Services names rated fragile grew net income 43% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=525).
13th pctl · Communication Services
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bearish35 analysts, 74% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.79 → $0.79 (+0.0% / 30d). 4 raised, 23 cut, 35 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 74% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: communication services is in declining, with may be transitioning (~0.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Mature by revenue growth · theme streaming/OTT.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$104.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$350.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,335.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 18d
Watch for Q2 revenue growth to meet or exceed 13%
Why it matters: Hitting this growth target shows strong demand for Netflix. It can attract more subscribers.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth of 13% or more compared to the same quarter last year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth falls below 12% compared to the same quarter last year.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-125d agoHaberler.com
Copyright issues could impact financial performance.
ChallengesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth cooling below 10% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like DIS, WBD, and LYV keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Communication Services sector momentum should keep lifting NFLX and other Communication Services names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for NFLX and other Communication Services names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If NFLX raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-16), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If NFLX cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-16), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like DIS, WBD, and LYV start missing or guiding lower, the Communication Services tailwind helping NFLX and other Communication Services names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-162mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 16, 2026, Netflix, Inc. (the “Company”) announced its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The Letter to Shareholders, which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference, includes reference to the non-GAAP financial information. A reconciliation to the GAAP equivalent of non-GAAP measures is contained in tabular form in Exhibit 99.1. We are not able to reconcile forward-looking non-GAAP fi…
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+3.5 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.