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Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. (MSGE)
NYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-06-15
Intact
$74.57+1.47%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but it has a capital-unfriendly stance. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with MSGE trading above typical levels compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 91% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. The read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Industry
- Entertainment
- Market cap
- $3.48B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2023-05-18
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-13
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $74.57. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$38.52consensus
Range $17.19 – $73.22
vs price: +94% above
Method agreement — · 5 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$153.71consensus
Range $153.71 – $153.71
vs price: -51% below
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Optionality premiumlow confidence
At $75, MSGE's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 56× p/e (4.6× the 12× p/e peer median). That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $39 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $70–$80. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
55.6x
peer 12.0x · own history —
Premium
4.6x peer
Growth the price needs
91%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$39.02
range $17.19 – $71.04
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiveexpensive — growth-justified12-month view
What's priced in
The market is pricing in roughly 91% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Communication Services names rated neutral grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=902).
65th pctl · Communication Services
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 6.96x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Communication Services names rated robust grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=525).
87th pctl · Communication Services
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, the US dollar.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral2 analysts, 67% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $-0.47 → $-0.47 (+0.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 14.3% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: communication services is in declining (~0.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$111.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$246.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,343.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 4d
Watch for Q2 earnings report on revenue and operating income
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if MSGE is on track to grow revenue and operating income.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Revenue growth reported above 5% year over year in the Q2 earnings report.
Disproves:Revenue growth reported below 0% year over year in the Q2 earnings report.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MSGE yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth cooling below 10% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like NFLX, DIS, and WBD keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Communication Services sector momentum should keep lifting MSGE and other Communication Services names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for MSGE and other Communication Services names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If MSGE raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-07), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If MSGE cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-07), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like NFLX, DIS, and WBD start missing or guiding lower, the Communication Services tailwind helping MSGE and other Communication Services names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-089d agoItem 7.01
Regulation FD Disclosure. The National Railroad Passenger Corporation (“Amtrak”) previously selected Penn Transformation Partners, a consortium led by Halmar International and Skanska (collectively, the “Master Developer”) to redevelop New York Penn Station subject to the execution of various binding agreements (the “Developer Agreements”). On June 8, 2026, in connection with the proposed redevelopment of Penn Station, Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. (the “Company”) announced that,…
Legal / regulatorynegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+0.6 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.