Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. (MSGE)

NYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-10-23

$77.81-0.77%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.6%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.72 → 2.74 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	465.2M
EPS	—	2.391
Annual ending 2027-06-30
Revenue	—	1.13B
EPS	—	2.456
Annual ending 2028-06-30
Revenue	—	1.18B
EPS	—	2.736

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Operating income grows robustly in fiscal 2026	A primary condition in Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is operating income grows year-over-year in fiscal 2026.	Intact	operating income declines year-over-year in fiscal 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 of the 2 supplied transcript quarters. Fiscal 2026 revenue was $1,060.8 million versus $942.7 million in fiscal 2025, and adjusted operating income was $262.2 million versus $222.5 million. Fourth-quarter revenue was $196.3 million versus $154.1 million, while operating income remained a loss of $8.6 million. The full-year figures show delivery on the stated growth focus, though the quarterly operating result was mixed. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Advance redevelopment of New York Penn Station	The company is advancing redevelopment of New York Penn Station, which could add long-term value.	Improving	Consortium engagement fails or major project delays occur	MOU signed 2026-06-08 vs 2026 target MSGE signed an MOU for Penn Station redevelopment on June 8, 2026, aligning with the consortium engagement target. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Newly stated in 2026-Q2, appearing in 1 of the 2 supplied transcript quarters. The supplied financials report fiscal 2026 revenue of $1,060.8 million and operating income of $141.5 million, but provide no financial measure tied specifically to the proposed Penn Station redevelopment. The memorandum remains non-binding and definitive documentation is subject to further negotiation, so substantive delivery on this stated project is not established in these disclosures. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue grows to at least $246.3M in 2026-Q3	A primary condition in Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $246.3M.	Intact	quarterly revenue falls below $175M in any quarter through 2026-Q3	Revenue: $196.322M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $246.3M. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2026-Q4. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 12, 2026196,322,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 of the 2 supplied transcript quarters. Fiscal 2026 revenue was $1,060.8 million versus $942.7 million in fiscal 2025, and adjusted operating income was $262.2 million versus $222.5 million. Fourth-quarter revenue was $196.3 million versus $154.1 million, while operating income remained a loss of $8.6 million. The full-year figures show delivery on the stated growth focus, though the quarterly operating result was mixed. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$2.74

Unavailable → $2.74 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$1.18B

$1.16B → $1.18B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$1,156,226,371	4 / 5
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$1,156,226,371	4 / 5
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$1,156,736,435	4 / 5
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$1,156,736,435	4 / 5
2026-07-28	$2.79	$1,156,736,435	5 / 6
2026-07-29	$2.79	$1,156,736,435	5 / 6
2026-07-30	$2.79	$1,156,736,435	5 / 6
2026-07-31	$2.79	$1,156,736,435	5 / 6
2026-08-01	$2.79	$1,156,736,435	5 / 6
2026-08-02	$2.79	$1,156,736,435	5 / 6
2026-08-03	$2.79	$1,156,736,435	5 / 6
2026-08-04	$2.79	$1,156,736,435	5 / 6
2026-08-05	$2.79	$1,156,736,435	5 / 6
2026-08-06	$2.79	$1,156,736,435	5 / 6
2026-08-07	$2.79	$1,156,736,435	5 / 6
2026-08-08	$2.79	$1,156,736,435	5 / 6
2026-08-09	$2.79	$1,156,736,435	5 / 6
2026-08-10	$2.79	$1,156,736,435	5 / 6
2026-08-12	$2.79	$1,156,736,435	5 / 6
2026-08-13	$2.79	$1,156,736,435	5 / 6
2026-08-14	$2.79	$1,156,736,435	5 / 6
2026-08-15	$2.79	$1,156,736,435	5 / 6
2026-08-16	$2.79	$1,156,736,435	5 / 6
2026-08-17	$2.79	$1,156,736,435	5 / 6
2026-08-18	$2.79	$1,156,736,435	5 / 6
2026-08-19	$2.79	$1,156,736,435	5 / 6
2026-08-20	$2.76	$1,179,591,525	6 / 6
2026-08-21	$2.72	$1,177,842,372	6 / 6
2026-08-22	$2.72	$1,177,842,372	6 / 6
2026-08-23	$2.72	$1,177,842,372	6 / 6
2026-08-24	$2.72	$1,177,842,372	7 / 7
2026-08-25	$2.72	$1,177,842,372	7 / 7
2026-08-26	$2.72	$1,177,842,372	7 / 7
2026-08-27	$2.72	$1,177,842,372	7 / 7
2026-08-28	$2.72	$1,177,842,372	7 / 7
2026-08-29	$2.72	$1,177,842,372	7 / 7
2026-08-30	$2.72	$1,177,842,372	7 / 7
2026-08-31	$2.72	$1,177,842,372	7 / 7
2026-09-01	$2.72	$1,177,842,372	7 / 7
2026-09-02	$2.72	$1,177,842,372	7 / 7
2026-09-03	$2.72	$1,177,842,372	7 / 7
2026-09-04	$2.72	$1,177,842,372	7 / 7
2026-09-05	$2.72	$1,177,842,372	5 / 8
2026-09-06	$2.72	$1,177,842,372	5 / 8
2026-09-07	$2.72	$1,177,842,372	5 / 8
2026-09-08	$2.72	$1,177,842,372	5 / 8
2026-09-09	$2.72	$1,177,842,372	5 / 8
2026-09-10	$2.72	$1,177,842,372	5 / 8
2026-09-11	$2.72	$1,177,842,372	5 / 8
2026-09-12	$2.72	$1,177,842,372	5 / 8
2026-09-13	$2.72	$1,177,842,372	5 / 8
2026-09-14	$2.72	$1,177,842,372	5 / 8
2026-09-15	$2.72	$1,177,842,372	5 / 8
2026-09-16	$2.72	$1,177,842,372	5 / 8
2026-09-17	$2.72	$1,177,842,372	5 / 8
2026-09-18	$2.72	$1,177,842,372	5 / 8
2026-09-19	$2.72	$1,177,842,372	5 / 8
2026-09-20	$2.72	$1,177,842,372	5 / 8
2026-09-21	$2.72	$1,177,842,372	5 / 8
2026-09-22	$2.72	$1,177,842,372	5 / 8
2026-09-23	$2.72	$1,177,842,372	5 / 8
2026-09-24	$2.72	$1,177,842,372	5 / 8
2026-09-25	$2.72	$1,177,842,372	5 / 8
2026-09-26	$2.72	$1,177,842,372	5 / 8
2026-09-27	$2.72	$1,177,842,372	5 / 8
2026-09-28	$2.72	$1,177,842,372	5 / 8
2026-09-29	$2.72	$1,177,842,372	5 / 8
2026-09-30	$2.72	$1,177,842,372	5 / 8
2026-10-01	$2.72	$1,177,842,372	5 / 8
2026-10-02	$2.72	$1,177,842,372	5 / 8
2026-10-03	$2.73	$1,181,395,206	5 / 8
2026-10-04	$2.73	$1,181,395,206	5 / 8
2026-10-05	$2.73	$1,181,395,206	5 / 8
2026-10-06	$2.73	$1,181,395,206	5 / 8
2026-10-07	$2.73	$1,181,395,206	5 / 8
2026-10-08	$2.73	$1,181,395,206	5 / 8
2026-10-09	$2.74	$1,181,395,206	5 / 8
2026-10-10	$2.74	$1,181,395,206	5 / 8
2026-10-11	$2.74	$1,181,393,062	5 / 8
2026-10-12	$2.74	$1,181,393,062	5 / 8
2026-10-13	$2.74	$1,181,393,062	5 / 8
2026-10-14	$2.74	$1,181,393,062	5 / 8
2026-10-15	$2.74	$1,181,393,062	5 / 8
2026-10-16	$2.74	$1,181,393,062	5 / 8
2026-10-17	$2.74	$1,181,393,062	5 / 8
2026-10-18	$2.74	$1,181,393,062	5 / 8
2026-10-19	$2.74	$1,181,393,062	5 / 8
2026-10-20	$2.74	$1,181,393,062	5 / 8
2026-10-21	$2.74	$1,181,393,062	5 / 8
2026-10-22	$2.74	$1,181,393,062	5 / 8
2026-10-23	$2.74	$1,181,393,062	5 / 8
2026-10-24	$2.74	$1,181,393,062	5 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	6	3
2026-06-01	6	4
2026-07-01	5	5
2026-08-01	5	6
2026-09-01	4	6
2026-10-01	4	6

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Operating income grows robustly in fiscal 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue grows to at least $246.3M in 2026-Q3Revenue: $196.322M

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-14.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a live-entertainment growth business, with a multi-year thesis built on expanding revenue and adjusted operating income. The thesis is intact, and management appears stable, but the company remains loss-making on the earnings-quality measure and recent financial performance is neutral.

What's priced into Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp.

The valuation evidence is mixed: MSGE is described as cheap versus peers, while also carrying a sizable premium to peers and an overall expensive value rating. The expectations gap is slightly negative, which points to limited room for results to fall short of what the market assumes; confidence in the valuation model is low.

What the fundamentals likely do

For fiscal 2026, revenue and adjusted operating income rose from the prior year, and fourth-quarter entertainment offerings revenue also increased. However, fourth-quarter operating income remained a loss, and recent earnings surprises have been erratic and trending down, even with two recent earnings beats. Near term, the sector backdrop is a headwind, while the estimated miss risk is low.

What Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. hinges on

The key test is whether MSGE can sustain demand across live events and keep growing revenue and adjusted operating income. A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative; lower interest rates or continued strong results and guidance from sector peers could provide a tailwind. The proposed Penn Station redevelopment remains subject to negotiation, and the supplied evidence does not establish financial progress on it.