Reading ROKU? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ROKU free→Reading ROKU? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ROKU free→NASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady, with capital-friendly moves. However, risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may affect future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 212% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include guidance changes from ROKU and the performance of sector bellwethers like NFLX and DIS. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $137.95. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $141, ROKU's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 4× p/s (3.1× the 1× p/s peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~206% near-term growth vs our ~16% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $46 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $130–$185. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 206% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 16%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Communication Services names rated strong grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=701).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.70x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Communication Services names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=690).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.56 → $0.56 (-0.1% / 30d). 7 raised, 0 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 5 downgrades / 30d, 7 maintained. 86% of analysts rate Buy.
12 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 20.5% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$216.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$392.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,769.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Retail sales affect Roku's ad revenue. Strong sales may increase revenue.
Confirms:Retail sales increase more than 0.5% month over month in the June report.
Disproves:Retail sales decrease or grow less than 0.5% month over month in the June report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Acquisition by Fox significantly enhances Roku's market position.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Agreement and Plan of Merger On June 14, 2026, Roku, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “ Company ”), entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “ Merger Agreement ”), by and among the Company, Fox Corporation, a Delaware corporation (“ Fox ” or “ Parent ”), Falcon Merger Sub 1, Inc., a Delaware corporation and a wholly owned subsidiary of Parent (“ Merger Sub 1 ”), and Falcon Merger Sub 2, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company and a wholl…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$130.00 – $185.00 (median $155.00) · 21 analysts · as of 2026-06-15
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Movies & Entertainment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ROKU Roku Inc | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
NFLX Netflix | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
DIS Walt Disney Company (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
LYV Live Nation Entertainment | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 31 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
TKO TKO Group Holdings | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 54 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Communication Services names rated stable grew net income 66% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=208).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLC
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Roku aims to grow its Platform revenue by 18% year-over-year to $4.890 billion in 2026.
Roku targets an Adjusted EBITDA of $675 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Roku aims to achieve a total net revenue of $5.5 billion for the fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: GDP growth changes total ad spending. This is important for Roku's revenue.
Confirms:GDP growth is revised upward to above 2% in the third estimate.
Disproves:GDP growth is revised downward to below 1% in the third estimate.
Fox's acquisition aligns with Roku's growth strategy.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, Roku, Inc. (the “Company”) announced its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The Company’s Shareholder Letter, which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1, is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be treated as filed for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by ref…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 12, 2026, Roku, Inc. (the “Company”) announced its financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. The Company’s Shareholder Letter, which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1, is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this report shall not be treated as “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any registration state…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 30, 2025, Roku, Inc. (the “Company”) announced its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. The Company’s Shareholder Letter, which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1, is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be treated as “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor shall it be deemed incorporate…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On July 28, 2025, the Company’s Board of Directors approved the appointment of Dan Jedda, the Company’s current Chief Financial Officer, as the Company’s Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer. Mr. Jedda has served as the Company’s Chief Financial Officer since he joined the Company in May 2023. Prior to joining the Company, Mr. Jedda…