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Liberty Live Holdings Inc (LLYVA)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-07-06
Watch· this week
$102.45-1.59%
Close 2026-07-06 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
The thesis is that LLYVA's growth could improve if sector trends shift positively. The latest results show weak financial performance, with no earnings release on record. It trades at a high multiple compared to peers, which suggests it looks expensive. If LLYVA misses earnings again next quarter, it could face more pressure. Peer multiples imply a price about 5% below where it trades; this read is provisional.
as of 2026-07-06
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Industry
- Entertainment
- Market cap
- $9.58B
- Employees
- 17,700
- IPO date
- 2025-11-13
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-06
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $102.45. As of 2026-07-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Fair value· primary
$97.40
Range $79.55 – $116.09
vs price: +5% above
Method agreement : high · 4 methods
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
3-year
$64.93consensus
Range $64.93 – $64.93
vs price: +58% above
Method agreement : medium · 1 method
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
5-year
$64.93consensus
Range $64.93 – $64.93
vs price: +58% above
Method agreement : medium · 1 method
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
high confidence
We can't anchor a clean multiple for LLYVA right now, so treat our $121 fair value as low-confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (multiple)
—
peer — · own history —
Premium
—
Growth the price needs
-17%
our forecast 72%
Our fair value
$121.42
range $98.63 – $124.96
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price sits about 13% below a flat-multiple fair value, while analysts forecast about 46% growth — below our forecast. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Compared to peers
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Communication Services names rated weak grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=1704).
17th pctl · Communication Services
Earnings quality
Not enough signal yet.
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutral8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Communication Services names rated neutral grew net income 51% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=1000).
55th pctl · Communication Services
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullishEPS revised +15.9% / 30d, n=1for period ending 2026-09-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.26 → $1.46 (+15.9% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: communication services is in declining, with may be transitioning (~0.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Mature by revenue growth · theme streaming/OTT.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Provisional
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-07-06
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$161.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$299.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,208.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
lowas of 2026-07-06
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · confidence_labelsmall change
Confidence changed from 'low' to 'medium'.
No, our read on the company is unchanged. There are no new strengths or weaknesses noted. The confidence level changed from low to medium. This reflects a slight improvement in certainty about the company's situation.
as of 2026-07-06
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideMedium confidenceQuartersactive 17d
Watch for sector revenue growth turning positive
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth in the sector could signal a recovery. This may benefit Liberty Live Holdings.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Sector revenue growth reported above 0% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue continues to decline year over year.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for LLYVA yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for changes in consumer spending trends
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like NFLX, DIS, and WBD keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Communication Services sector momentum should keep lifting LLYVA and other Communication Services names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.63%, that would be a tailwind for LLYVA and other Communication Services names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like NFLX, DIS, and WBD start missing or guiding lower, the Communication Services tailwind helping LLYVA and other Communication Services names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.7% (say, below 2%), it hits LLYVA and other Communication Services names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
- If LLYVA misses again next quarter like this past one (a very large miss off a near-zero prior-year base on the 2026-03-31 print), expect continued pressure. The Street usually keeps walking estimates down after consecutive misses.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-03-233mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 20, 2026, Liberty Live Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) closed the previously disclosed privately negotiated exchanges of its outstanding 2.375% Exchangeable Senior Debentures due 2053 (the “Old Debentures”) for its newly issued 2.375% Exchangeable Senior Debentures due 2053 (the “New Debentures”) with certain holders of the Old Debentures (the “Settlement”). In connection with the Settlement, approximately $1,116 million aggregate principal…
M&A activitypositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
No score history yet for this stock.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.