Netflix (NFLX)

NASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-10-15

$70.53-2.86%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Netflix’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.5%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.81 → 3.80 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 34 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 34 to 34; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Execute $25B share buyback program	The company also authorized a $25 billion share buyback to return capital to shareholders.	Intact	buyback program is canceled or materially reduced	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Free cash flow increases to $12.5B in 2026	Free cash flow is expected to rise to $12.5 billion.	Intact	free cash flow falls below $9B in FY26	Free cash flow: $1.368B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $12.5B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 17, 20261,367,771,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 5 quarters from 2025-Q2 through 2026-Q2. Free cash flow was $2.3B in 2025-Q2 and $1.5B in 2026-Q2, reflecting some variability quarter to quarter. Management raised full-year 2026 FCF guidance to approximately $12.5B from $11B, up from about $8B in 2025. The trajectory shows progress toward the $12.5B target with some quarterly fluctuations. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Maintain operating margin near 31.5% in 2026	It targets a strong profit margin near 31.5%.	Intact	operating margin falls below 29% in FY26	Operating margin: 33.38% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 31.5%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 17, 202633.380818 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d7b3e253-8738-4130-bce5-4a4e64d479cc. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Netflix revenue reaches about $51.2B in 2026	Netflix aims to grow revenue to about $51.2 billion in 2026.	Intact	revenue falls below $45B in FY26	Revenue: $12.56B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$51.2B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 17, 202612,559,938,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d7b3e253-8738-4130-bce5-4a4e64d479cc. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 5 quarters from 2025-Q2 through 2026-Q2. Free cash flow was $2.3B in 2025-Q2 and $1.5B in 2026-Q2, reflecting some variability quarter to quarter. Management raised full-year 2026 FCF guidance to approximately $12.5B from $11B, up from about $8B in 2025. The trajectory shows progress toward the $12.5B target with some quarterly fluctuations. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.80

$3.81 → $3.80 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$56.93B

$56.80B → $56.93B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.81	$56,802,253,018	34 / 35
2026-07-25	$3.81	$56,802,253,018	34 / 35
2026-07-26	$3.81	$57,005,785,630	44 / 45
2026-07-27	$3.81	$57,005,785,630	44 / 45
2026-07-28	$3.81	$57,005,785,630	44 / 45
2026-07-29	$3.81	$57,005,785,630	44 / 45
2026-07-30	$3.82	$56,788,795,374	34 / 35
2026-07-31	$3.81	$57,005,785,630	44 / 45
2026-08-01	$3.82	$56,788,795,374	34 / 35
2026-08-02	$3.82	$56,788,795,374	34 / 35
2026-08-03	$3.81	$57,005,785,630	44 / 45
2026-08-04	$3.82	$56,788,795,374	34 / 35
2026-08-05	$3.82	$56,788,795,374	34 / 35
2026-08-06	$3.81	$57,005,785,630	44 / 45
2026-08-07	$3.82	$56,788,795,374	34 / 35
2026-08-08	$3.81	$57,004,482,590	45 / 45
2026-08-09	$3.81	$57,004,482,590	45 / 45
2026-08-10	$3.81	$57,004,482,590	45 / 45
2026-08-12	$3.81	$57,004,492,440	45 / 45
2026-08-13	$3.81	$57,004,492,440	45 / 45
2026-08-14	$3.82	$56,788,795,374	34 / 35
2026-08-15	$3.82	$56,788,795,374	34 / 35
2026-08-16	$3.82	$56,788,795,374	34 / 35
2026-08-17	$3.82	$56,788,795,374	34 / 35
2026-08-18	$3.82	$56,788,795,374	34 / 35
2026-08-19	$3.82	$56,788,795,374	34 / 35
2026-08-20	$3.82	$57,007,055,893	34 / 35
2026-08-21	$3.82	$57,007,055,893	34 / 35
2026-08-22	$3.81	$57,007,211,449	34 / 35
2026-08-23	$3.81	$57,007,211,449	34 / 35
2026-08-24	$3.81	$57,007,211,449	34 / 35
2026-08-25	$3.81	$57,007,211,449	34 / 35
2026-08-26	$3.81	$57,007,211,449	34 / 35
2026-08-27	$3.81	$57,007,211,449	34 / 35
2026-08-28	$3.81	$57,007,211,449	34 / 35
2026-08-29	$3.81	$57,007,211,449	34 / 35
2026-08-30	$3.81	$57,007,211,449	34 / 35
2026-08-31	$3.81	$57,007,211,449	34 / 35
2026-09-01	$3.81	$57,007,211,449	34 / 35
2026-09-02	$3.81	$57,007,211,449	34 / 35
2026-09-03	$3.81	$57,007,211,449	34 / 35
2026-09-04	$3.81	$57,007,211,449	34 / 35
2026-09-05	$3.81	$57,007,211,449	34 / 35
2026-09-06	$3.81	$57,007,211,449	34 / 35
2026-09-07	$3.81	$57,007,211,449	34 / 35
2026-09-08	$3.81	$57,007,211,449	34 / 35
2026-09-09	$3.81	$57,007,211,449	34 / 35
2026-09-10	$3.81	$57,007,211,449	34 / 35
2026-09-11	$3.81	$57,007,211,449	34 / 35
2026-09-12	$3.81	$57,007,211,449	34 / 35
2026-09-13	$3.81	$57,007,211,449	34 / 35
2026-09-14	$3.81	$57,007,211,449	34 / 35
2026-09-15	$3.81	$57,006,944,782	34 / 35
2026-09-16	$3.81	$57,006,944,782	34 / 35
2026-09-17	$3.81	$57,006,944,782	34 / 35
2026-09-18	$3.81	$57,006,944,782	34 / 35
2026-09-19	$3.81	$57,006,944,782	34 / 35
2026-09-20	$3.81	$57,006,934,204	34 / 35
2026-09-21	$3.81	$57,006,934,204	34 / 35
2026-09-22	$3.81	$57,006,934,204	34 / 35
2026-09-23	$3.81	$56,986,645,315	34 / 35
2026-09-24	$3.81	$56,986,645,315	34 / 35
2026-09-25	$3.81	$56,986,645,315	34 / 35
2026-09-26	$3.81	$56,986,645,315	34 / 35
2026-09-27	$3.81	$56,986,645,315	34 / 35
2026-09-28	$3.81	$56,986,645,315	34 / 35
2026-09-29	$3.81	$56,986,645,315	34 / 35
2026-09-30	$3.81	$56,986,645,315	34 / 35
2026-10-01	$3.81	$56,981,776,188	34 / 35
2026-10-02	$3.81	$56,974,926,770	34 / 35
2026-10-03	$3.81	$56,981,199,483	34 / 35
2026-10-04	$3.81	$56,981,199,483	34 / 35
2026-10-05	$3.81	$56,981,199,483	34 / 35
2026-10-06	$3.80	$56,963,213,883	34 / 35
2026-10-07	$3.80	$56,942,599,194	34 / 35
2026-10-08	$3.80	$56,942,599,194	34 / 35
2026-10-09	$3.80	$56,939,567,833	34 / 35
2026-10-10	$3.80	$56,939,567,833	34 / 35
2026-10-11	$3.80	$56,939,560,888	34 / 35
2026-10-12	$3.80	$56,939,560,888	34 / 35
2026-10-13	$3.80	$56,939,560,888	34 / 35
2026-10-14	$3.80	$56,929,960,250	34 / 35
2026-10-15	$3.80	$56,929,960,250	34 / 35

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	37	13	1
2026-06-01	37	13	0
2026-07-01	37	15	0
2026-08-01	36	16	0
2026-09-01	35	16	1
2026-10-01	35	15	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 35 Buy / Strong Buy · 15 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades2 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 8 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

JefferiesOct 15

$85.00New observation · no comparable prior

KeyBancOct 13 · prior Jul 13

$92.00 → $85.00-7.6%

Morgan StanleyOct 8 · prior Jul 17

$83.00 → $80.00-3.6%

BarclaysOct 7 · prior Jul 14

$85.00 → $70.00-17.6%

Goldman SachsOct 6 · prior Jul 17

$94.00 → $90.00-4.3%

GuggenheimOct 1 · prior Jul 17

$75.00 → $80.00+6.7%

Deutsche BankSep 29 · prior Jul 20

$110.00 → $95.00-13.6%

Wells FargoSep 18 · prior Jul 17

$80.00 → $57.00-28.7%

$0$60.50$121.00

1 raises · 6 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Execute $25B share buyback programDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Free cash flow increases to $12.5B in 2026Free cash flow: $1.368B
Maintain operating margin near 31.5% in 2026Operating margin: 33.38%
Netflix revenue reaches about $51.2B in 2026Revenue: $12.56B

Next proof point

Oct 20, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-46.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Netflix outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on revenue growth and margin expansion. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent strong financial performance, though there are risks ahead.

What's priced into Netflix

The market seems to price NFLX as cheap compared to its peers, reflecting a low expectations gap. However, the fragility in earnings quality suggests that the market is cautious about potential execution risks.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track with priorities like sustaining revenue growth and expanding operating margins. Recent financial results have been strong, but there is some variability in free cash flow, which could impact future performance.

What Netflix hinges on

The thesis hinges on several factors, including management's ability to maintain guidance, potential changes in interest rates, and the performance of sector peers like DIS and WBD. Any negative guidance could lead to a significant downturn.