Paychex (PAYX)
NASDAQIndustrialsStaffing & Employment ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-29
$112.12+2.51%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsStaffing & Employment ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put PAYX beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Industrials is in expansion. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Achieve 5% to 6% revenue growth in fiscal 2027: Revenue growth: 5.88%.
View ThesisRevenue growth is accelerating — up about 14% over the past year.
View GrowthRanks among the strongest in its industry on quality — around the top 16%.
View QualityManagement screens strong on capital allocation, earnings delivery, margins.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 1% on a typical day and fell roughly 26% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskPaychex’s payroll and PEO services depend on steady revenue growth, but growth has slowed sharply. Revenue growth eased from 20% to 12% to 6%; the latest quarter still beat. PAYX trades at 19× P/E versus a 23× peer median and its 21× historical multiple. The price reflects less growth than our view, despite the fiscal 2027 growth pillar facing pressure. The specific risk is revenue growth of 5.88% against the fiscal 2027 target of 5% to 6%. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 16%. peer multiples imply a price about 7% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the thesis is on watch, and this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. PAYX is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 19 analysts currently covering PAYX (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 6 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for PAYX in the last 4 months.
Continue this research
Compare PAYX with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
Compare now without an account. Saving and monitoring require an account.
| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAYX Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Human Resource & Employment Services — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put PAYX next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Return capital to shareholders via dividends and share repurchases
Earnings beat and shareholder payments align with capital allocation goals.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $112.12
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $112.12.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Lower growth outlook may hinder EPS growth targets.
Threatens: Return capital to shareholders via dividends and share repurchases
Concerns about dividend safety may impact capital allocation.
Threatens: Grow adjusted diluted EPS by 7% to 9% in fiscal 2027
Concerns about revenue growth could hinder EPS growth objectives.
Earnings miss raises concerns about future growth.
Advances: Grow PEO and Insurance Solutions revenue by 6% to 8%
Revised growth aligns with management's revenue targets.
Unchanged guidance raises concerns about growth.
Fiscal Q1 results indicate potential growth slowdown.
