Reading NSP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NSP free→Reading NSP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NSP free→NYSEIndustrialsStaffing & Employment ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, while management's recent track record has been steady. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, indicating challenges in the current environment. Peer multiples imply a price about 12% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If NSP cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $36.21. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $36 NSP trades at 47× p/e — 2.0× the 23× p/e peer median, and above its own 29× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $40 fair value is low-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 9% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted -3.92x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=792).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.47 → $0.37 (-21.2% / 30d). 0 raised, 3 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 20% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 2 guided quarters · 18.5% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$291.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$722.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,613.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if Insperity can improve cash flow and net income.
Confirms one read:Q2 earnings show cash from operations improving to over $5 million.
Confirms the other:Q2 earnings report shows cash from operations below $1 million.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NSP yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangement of Certain Officers. On May 18, 2026 , as described in
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Human Resource & Employment Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NSP Insperity | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 41 of 100 | full | high |
ADP Automatic Data Processing | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | fair | elevated |
PAYX Paychex | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
PAYC Paycom | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
PCTY Paylocity | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to maintain the dividend payout at $0.6 per share.
Focus on improving cash flow from operations to enhance financial stability.
Strive to achieve and maintain positive net income for financial health.
Why it matters: More unemployment claims can mean a weak economy. This can hurt Insperity's clients and demand.
Confirms:Unemployment claims drop below 200,000. This shows a strong job market.
Disproves:Unemployment claims rise above 300,000. This shows economic weakness.
Why it matters: A larger drop in paid WSEEs could signal ongoing client losses and hurt revenue.
Confirms:Average paid WSEEs in Q2 2026 falls more than 2.1% year over year.
Disproves:Average paid WSEEs in Q2 2026 stays above a 2.1% decline year over year.
Why it matters: Better cash flow helps keep operations steady and support dividends.
Confirms:Cash from operations shows improvement beyond a 30.8% progress score.
Disproves:Cash from operations remains below a 30.8% progress score.
Why it matters: Higher adjusted EPS shows good cost management and more money made.
Confirms:Adjusted EPS in Q2 2026 is reported above $0.02.
Disproves:Adjusted EPS in Q2 2026 is reported below $0.02.
Why it matters: Better cash flow is important for Insperity to have positive net income.
Confirms:Q2 cash from operations is over $3 million, which shows improvement.
Disproves:Q2 cash from operations is under $1 million, which shows ongoing problems.
Why it matters: The industrial sector's growth trends will impact Insperity's performance. A slowdown could hurt its business.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth is back above 8% in June.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth slows down to below 5% in June.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished to the SEC and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. This information shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific r…
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished to the SEC and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. This information shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific r…
Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities. On February 10, 2026, we announced an internal reorganization designed to improve the efficiency and align our workforce with our key areas of focus (the “Realignment Plan”). These actions are expected to result in the elimination of approximately 4% of our non-sales positions. We expect to continue disciplined hiring in sales and other key positions. We currently estimate that we will incur one-time charges of approximately $9 million in con…