Reading BBSI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BBSI free→Reading BBSI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BBSI free→NASDAQIndustrialsStaffing & Employment ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 28% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact BBSI's performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $33.48. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $33 BBSI trades at 17× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median. Our $46 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 28% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.95x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.57 → $0.55 (-2.9% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$138.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$255.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,531.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'inexpensive'.
As of June 15, 2026, the valuation dimension changed and became inexpensive. Risk fell, indicating a decrease in overall risk. The sector backdrop remained a headwind, suggesting ongoing challenges in the industry environment.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Keeping gross margin guidance shows the company can control costs. This is important for making money.
Confirms:Management says gross margin guidance will not change during the next earnings call.
Disproves:Management lowers gross margin guidance in the next earnings call.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BBSI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (e) On June 1, 2026, at the annual meeting of stockholders of Barrett Business Services, Inc. (the “Company”), the Company’s stockholders approved the Second Amended and Restated 2020 Stock Incentive Plan (the “Restated 2020 Stock Plan”), which had been adopted by the Company’s Board of Directors on April 3, 2026. The primary reason for the proposa…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Human Resource & Employment Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BBSI Barrett Business Services, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 49 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
ADP Automatic Data Processing | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | fair | elevated |
PAYX Paychex | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
PAYC Paycom | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
PCTY Paylocity | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
BBSI aims to maintain its gross margin as a percent of gross billings between 2.70% and 2.85% for 2026.
BBSI expects growth in the average number of worksite employees (WSEs) of 2% to 4% for 2026.
BBSI has set an effective annual tax rate guidance of 26% to 27% for 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in tax rate guidance can impact net income. This is important for overall financial health.
Confirms one read:Management will share a steady annual tax rate in the next earnings call.
Confirms the other:Management raises effective annual tax rate guidance in the next earnings call.
Why it matters: An increase in WSEs shows business growth and demand for services. This supports revenue growth.
Confirms:Average number of WSEs grows by more than 5% year over year in the next report.
Disproves:Average number of WSEs declines or grows less than 2% year over year.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, Barrett Business Services, Inc. (the “Company”), issued a news release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. The release also provides management’s expectations for certain key performance metrics for 2026. A copy of the news release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and incorporated by reference.
Regulation FD Disclosure. On May 6, 2026, the Company announced that its Board of Directors has declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.08 per share. The dividend is payable on June 5, 2026 to all stockholders of record as of May 22, 2026.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 25, 2026, Barrett Business Services, Inc. (the “Company”), issued a news release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. The release also provides management’s expectations for certain key performance metrics for 2026. A copy of the news release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and incorporated by reference.
Regulation FD Disclosure. On February 25, 2026, the Company announced that its Board of Directors has declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.08 per share. The dividend is payable on March 27, 2026 to all stockholders of record as of March 13, 2026.