Reading KELYA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track KELYA free→Reading KELYA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track KELYA free→NASDAQIndustrialsStaffing & Employment ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year. Peer multiples imply a price about 63% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact KELYA's outlook. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $11.45. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $12 KELYA trades at 13× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median. Our $32 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 64% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=3678).
Over the trailing year it converted -5.96x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.15 → $0.23 (+54.1% / 30d). 3 raised, 0 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$132.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$386.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,431.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company can improve its loss-making status. This is key for future growth.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows smaller losses or a return to making money.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows more losses or worse financial results.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for KELYA yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition Kelly Services, Inc. (the “Company”) today released financial information containing highlighted financial data for the three months ended March 29, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incorporated herein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Human Resource & Employment Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
KELYA Kelly Services, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 37 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
ADP Automatic Data Processing | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | fair | elevated |
PAYX Paychex | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
PAYC Paycom | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
PCTY Paylocity | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
11 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated volatile grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=840).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on improving adjusted EBITDA margin by at least 100 bps relative to the first quarter.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company aims for an adjusted EBITDA margin of at least 2.5% in 2026-Q2, a 100 bps improvement over 2026-Q1. Despite this focus, the financials show a net income decline from $124.7M in 2025-Q4 to a loss of $5.9M in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress so far.
“Expect relative improvement in year-over-year performance each successive quarter for... adjusted EBITDA margin.”
“Expect relative improvement in year-over-year performance each successive quarter for both revenue and adjusted EBITDA margin.”
Strive for relative improvement in year-over-year revenue performance each successive quarter.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Despite the focus on improving revenue each quarter, revenue declined from $1.0492B in 2025-Q4 to $1.0407B in 2026-Q1. This indicates a recurring focus but limited substantive delivery so far.
“Expect relative improvement in year-over-year performance each successive quarter for both revenue.”
Focus on strategic capital allocation, including M&A activities and financial obligations.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company entered into a material definitive agreement with Hunt Equity Opportunities, LLC, indicating a strategic focus on capital allocation. However, the financials show a net income loss of $5.9M in 2026-Q1, suggesting limited immediate impact from these activities.
“Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement with Hunt Equity Opportunities, LLC.”
Why it matters: If industrial sector revenue growth picks up, it could benefit Kelly Services. This is important for overall performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth in the industrial sector is speeding up toward its highs.
Disproves:Revenue growth is slowing down, which is a long-term problem for the sector.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition Kelly Services, Inc. (the “Company”) today released financial information containing highlighted financial data for the three months and year ended December 28, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incorporated herein by reference.
of Form 8-K. The change in control resulted from the purchase of shares from the Terence E. Adderley Revocable Trust K pursuant to the Purchase Agreement, dated January 9, 2026, as referenced in the Agreement. The aggregate purchase price paid by Hunt was $106,000,000. The Purchase Agreement also provides for an additional payment in cash equal to $15,199,700 if at any time within the 48-month period following the closing of the share sale, the Company’s market capitalization is greater than…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Letter Agreement with Hunt Equity Opportunities, LLC On January 30, 2026, Kelly Services, Inc. (the “ Company ”) entered into a letter agreement (the “ Agreement ”) with Hunt Equity Opportunities, LLC (“ Hunt ”). The Agreement acknowledges the Share Purchase Agreement, dated January 9, 2026, between the Terence E. Adderley Revocable Trust K and Hunt (the “ Purchase Agreement ”) and the Company’s Stockholder Rights Plan, dated January 11, 2026 (the “…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Effective immediately prior to the Closing, the following directors resigned from the Company’s Board of Directors: Terrence B. Larkin, Gerald S. Adolph, George S. Corona, InaMarie F. Johnson and Peter W. Quigley. These resignations were not due to any disagreement with the Company on any matter relating to the Company’s operations, policies or pra…
“Expect relative improvement in year-over-year performance each successive quarter for both revenue and adjusted EBITDA margin.”