Reading BGSF? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BGSF free→Reading BGSF? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BGSF free→NYSEIndustrialsStaffing & Employment ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 68% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile, historically a value-trap pattern. If BGSF cuts guidance on the next call, that could have a meaningful negative impact. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $5.05. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $5.05 BGSF trades at 1× p/s, below its 2× p/s peer median. Our $17 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 70% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=3678).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.08x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$144.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$512.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,103.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector shows renewed growth, it may benefit BGSF's performance. This could signal a better environment for the company.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth speeds up again, reaching over 5% growth.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth slows down or stays below 5%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BGSF yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, BGSF, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release regarding its financial results for the first fiscal quarter ended March 29, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The Company is making reference to non-GAAP financial information in the press release and the related conference call, and a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP results is provided in the press rel…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
No score history yet for this stock.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2023-Q2, 2023-Q3, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Human Resource & Employment Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BGSF BGSF Inc | — | inexpensive | high |
ADP Automatic Data Processing | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | fair | elevated |
PAYX Paychex | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
PAYC Paycom | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
PCTY Paylocity | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Focus on investing in growth initiatives, including PropTech, throughout 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue decreased from $22.03M in 2025-Q4 to $20.88M in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress in growth initiatives. Management's focus on growth, including PropTech, has yet to translate into revenue gains.
“We are intensely focused on investing for growth in 2026...”
“We anticipate revenue growth in 2026 versus 2025...”
Aim for low- to mid-single-digit revenue growth in 2026 compared to 2025.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue decreased from $22.03M in 2025-Q4 to $20.88M in 2026-Q1, contradicting the growth target. Management's expectation of low- to mid-single-digit growth in 2026 has not yet materialized, indicating limited progress.
“We continue to expect full-year 2026 revenue to grow...”
“We anticipate revenue growth in 2026 versus 2025...”
“We anticipate revenue growth in 2026...”
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 11, 2026, BGSF, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release regarding its financial results for the fourth fiscal quarter ended December 28, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The Company is making reference to non-GAAP financial information in the press release and the related conference call, and a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP results is provided in the pr…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers The Board of Directors of BGSF, Inc. (“BGSF” or the “Company”) recently approved the appointments of Keith Schroeder and Kelly Brown as Co-Chief Executive Officers on a permanent, non-interim basis. On February 24, 2026, B G Staff Services, Inc., a subsidiary of the Company, entered into an Executive Employment Agreement (the “Employment Agreement”)…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 7, 2025, BGSF, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release regarding its financial results for the third fiscal quarter ended September 28, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The Company is making reference to non-GAAP financial information in the press release and the related conference call, and a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP results is provided in the…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On November 5, 2025, BGSF, Inc. (the “Company”) held its annual meeting of stockholders (the "Annual Meeting"). At the Annual Meeting, the Company's stockholders approved (i) an amendment to the BGSF, Inc. 2013 Long-Term Incentive Plan to increase the number of shares of common stock reserved for issuance thereunder by 250,000 shares, and (ii) an a…